Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

At just 4mm of rain and perhaps little if any more to come this will probably be the driest month I've ever recorded, and during an autumn month as well.

So boring.

 

What's boring about it! rain sucks and is boring

[Bobby]

What's boring about it! rain sucks and is boring

 

Wet spells are more dynamic than dry spells. In a dry spell it's.. dry. In a wet spell it's still dry most of the time.

 

Wet spell - rain, dry, sun, showers, rain, dry, showers etc. Dry spell - Dry. Sun. Dry. Cloud. Dry. Boring!

Edited September 20, 2014 by Bobby

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wet spells are more dynamic than dry spells. In a dry spell it's.. dry. In a wet spell it's still dry most of the time.

 

Wet spell - rain, dry, sun, showers, rain, dry, showers etc. Dry spell - Dry. Sun. Dry. Cloud. Dry. Boring!

 

You are fine up there, but I'm sure everyone in a flood prone/affected area will disagree, as well as others like me, who think rain is miserable/unpleasant

Edited September 20, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[stevofunnelcl]

Boring as hell, the lack of posts is very telling, that a lot of people don't even feel the need to discuss the weather, cause it's pretty much the same from one day to the next

 

Two years in a row, the Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a 'dud' - so that doesn't help to bring any energy into the Atlantic, and maybe wake things up a bit

 

I'm fairly sure last September was similar, we have a long period without rain now... maybe another stormy winter to come. Can't help but think it'll balance out again, at some point (prolonged dry spell / prolonged wet spell)

[MP-R]

Boring as hell, the lack of posts is very telling, that a lot of people don't even feel the need to discuss the weather, cause it's pretty much the same from one day to the next

 

Two years in a row, the Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a 'dud' - so that doesn't help to bring any energy into the Atlantic, and maybe wake things up a bit

 

I'm fairly sure last September was similar, we have a long period without rain now... maybe another stormy winter to come. Can't help but think it'll balance out again, at some point (prolonged dry spell / prolonged wet spell)

 

Totally agree. Last autumn started well with the cool and often wet September, and the Atlantic was in full flow by October but the settling down of conditions mid-November weren't a good sign at all. I'm really hoping the weather gets its act together and we can get some Atlantic looking charts appearing in early October rather than just in time for winter.

[Bobby]

Boring as hell, the lack of posts is very telling, that a lot of people don't even feel the need to discuss the weather, cause it's pretty much the same from one day to the next

 

Two years in a row, the Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a 'dud' - so that doesn't help to bring any energy into the Atlantic, and maybe wake things up a bit

 

I'm fairly sure last September was similar, we have a long period without rain now... maybe another stormy winter to come. Can't help but think it'll balance out again, at some point (prolonged dry spell / prolonged wet spell)

 

I think it was Hurricane Crisotbal that triggered this anticyclonic spell. It sucked up high pressure from the SW as it swung up towards Iceland and it's been with us ever since, and it looks like it won't be leaving anytime soon.

 

31st August:

 

 

The pattern will change though and since the weather tends to balance out I wouldn't be surprised to see it change with vengeance with a very wet October/November...

Edited September 21, 2014 by Bobby

[Captain Shortwave]

This spell on the whole has been great, lots of warm or even very warm sunshine and also had some pretty darn good thunderstorms yesterday and Friday morning. The Friday storm actually caused flash flooding in the centre of Chelmsford.

[mushymanrob]

well i find intrinsic beauty in all weather types, whether i like them or not. its the very variabibilty of our weather that makes it so enjoyable.... and yes, i include anticyclonic gloom in that (although in summer its hard). id be less bothered about wet or cold if i didnt work outdoors and from a work pov the drier and warmer the better.

[draztik]

I asked to be wakened when September ended; but it appears this may be extended until November by looking at the ecm ens and ec32.

I have found this recent spell to be fine on the whole. But thia fine spell may end up being detrimental to the winter imo - if you're looking for cold & snow that is. My feelings of a stormy and mild winter have increased markedly.

[sundog]

I used to love autumn but the way the season turns out most yrs now ive kinda given up on it.  Its not so much the dry weather that annoys me but the above average temps we get most autumns now ,just doesnt feel like the season i used to love.

[Tony27]

it's only just past mid september, if its still like this mid october then it's fine to moan

Edited September 21, 2014 by Tony27

[SLAMMER]

I used to love autumn but the way the season turns out most yrs now ive kinda given up on it.  Its not so much the dry weather that annoys me but the above average temps we get most autumns now ,just doesnt feel like the season i used to love.

September has generally been a pleasant month.  I remember going back to school after summers and it was always pleasant. What did you used to love about pleasant weather?

[hec1]

this weather =boring

[Mokidugway]

I'd rather the dry weather continues in to the winter ,better than the normal damp dross the north west usually suffers !!!.

[Yarmy]

I asked to be wakened when September ended; but it appears this may be extended until November by looking at the ecm ens and ec32.

I have found this recent spell to be fine on the whole. But thia fine spell may end up being detrimental to the winter imo - if you're looking for cold & snow that is. My feelings of a stormy and mild winter have increased markedly.

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It's September 21st: how can it be detrimental to WInter?

[sundog]

September has generally been a pleasant month.  I remember going back to school after summers and it was always pleasant. What did you used to love about pleasant weather?

True sept is often a pleasant month and never the most exciting month anyway but i like autumn regardless of the actual weather because the temps cool down and the anticipation of winter. However that cooling down seems to take longer imo overall then it used to compared to when i was younger. Its like we get well into autumn these days and the temps still remain well up well into the season and that annoys me. My fave autumnal type of weather is the cool dry type with some frost or fog at night/early morning rather then wind and rain but once it feels at least like autumn with a bit of a nip in the air i dont really mind what the weather does.

Edited September 21, 2014 by sundog

[knocker]

This settled weather, it's possible it could continue into October, has delayed the entrance of the 'big guns', The noise of the champing at the bits is quite deafening.

[Bobby]

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It's September 21st: how can it be detrimental to WInter?

 

All too often, especially since about 2007, we seem to get stuck in one rut before switching to another. If this anticyclonic dominance continues through October I wouldn't be surprised that when the pattern changes we switch to a cyclonic rut which could be just as dominant and long lasting if not more so (considering cyclonic weather usually rules at this time of year anyway). Nothing especially scientific but I'd put a wager on it.

So of course September can influence winter weather, everything in weather is linked and nature is always trying to find an equilibrium

[damianslaw]

The last relatively dry September - October combo was 2005 I think, November saw a temporary wet blip first half, followed by anticylonic cold conditions second half and then a very dry winter...

 

However, as others say, we shouldn't pattern match, the weather will do what it wants.

 

Proper autumn rarely gets going until mid October i.e. stormy wet conditions, Recent Octobers have been a real mixed bag, with notable dry ones such as 2005, 2009 with high pressure ruling the roost, and quite unsettled ones.. its can be all things October, a bit like April, quite a difficult month to predict, dry spells in October have the habit of quickly crashing down into very unsettled conditions, more so than during the Feb-Sept period.

[Yarmy]

All too often, especially since about 2007, we seem to get stuck in one rut before switching to another. If this anticyclonic dominance continues through October I wouldn't be surprised that when the pattern changes we switch to a cyclonic rut which could be just as dominant and long lasting if not more so (considering cyclonic weather usually rules at this time of year anyway). Nothing especially scientific but I'd put a wager on it.

So of course September can influence winter weather, everything in weather is linked and nature is always trying to find an equilibrium

 

BFTV will have the numbers, but there must be virtually a zero correlation between the weather in September and the weather in December, especially for a country the size of the UK.  If not, long range forecasting would be a ton easier. As damianslaw mentioned Oct 09, here's an example:

 

 

 

And we all know the winter that followed.  

[Bobby]

BFTV will have the numbers, but there must be virtually a zero correlation between the weather in September and the weather in December, especially for a country the size of the UK.  If not, long range forecasting would be a ton easier. As damianslaw mentioned Oct 09, here's an example:

 

 

 

And we all know the winter that followed.  

 

I'm not talking about September or any period in particular but the trend especially since from about 2007 where we seem to get stuck in one pattern for a long time before getting stuck in another for a long time. It's been noted that the jetstream has been behaving strange of late, becoming more meandering with patterns getting stuck and lasting longer than they would normally. Summer 2007, 2008, winter 2009-2010, late nov-December 2010, the dry period until the washout summer of 2012, the the record breaking wet and stormy winter last year.

 

I'll stick my neck out and say if October is another dry anticyclonic month I'll wager the Nov-Jan period will be wetter and milder than average (possibly a fair bit).

 

From that anticyclonic October chart followed the wettest month (November) I've ever recorded by the way!

[Yarmy]

I'm not talking about September or any period in particular but the trend especially since from about 2007 where we seem to get stuck in one pattern for a long time before getting stuck in another for a long time. It's been noted that the jetstream has been behaving strange of late, becoming more meandering with patterns getting stuck and lasting longer than they would normally. Summer 2007, 2008, winter 2009-2010, late nov-December 2010, the dry period until the washout summer of 2012, the the record breaking wet and stormy winter last year.

 

I'll stick my neck out and say if October is another dry anticyclonic month I'll wager the Nov-Jan period will be wetter and milder than average (possibly a fair bit).

 

From that anticyclonic October chart followed the wettest month (November) I've ever recorded by the way!

 

There's absolutely no doubt Nov-Jan could be milder than average, in fact it's the form horse you would think. Except for the 2007-2012 period, that was the general trend anyway. However, I can't see any physical mechanism by which a long period of high pressure in our neck of the woods at this time of year influences the outcome of the DJF period. It's just too early to say.

 

I fear we are getting a bit off-topic for this thread though.

[Milhouse]

Looks like the models are showing a mini version of the 2011 Autumn heatwave. The warm air looks to be flooding back in time for the weekend.

[knocker]

Interesting example

 

Pineapple express stretches from Hawaii to West Coast due to strong low pressure 975 mb "atmospheric river" pic.twitter.com/E0yWNOYC0n

[Paul]

The first of a regular series of analyses of the synoptic pattern from Nick here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6167;sess=