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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.


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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

IIRC, last autumn was pretty dry and settled, notwithstanding the late October storm of course. I remember thinking how dry it had been up to the time i went to Malaysia for Xmas in the middle of December. Of course, someone flicked a switch the moment I left!

I could be wrong in my memories though; the ads I'm seeing on netweather at the moment keep prompting me to manage my retirement income better so perhaps my memory is fading (I'm not yet forty though, so it is a little irksome!).

 

Haha I'm sure age isn't a player yet. I was in Bristol last September and after the first week, it was very changeable and between the 11th and 19th very wet. Then it turned settled again in the final third and first third of October, then after a cold plunge on October 10th, it again turned unsettled nationwide. I was in Egham by October and from the 11th onwards it was again often wet but increasingly mild. Nationwide it was then unsettled right through until November 8th when it settled down and the rest of November was largely dry and quite settled. In fact last October registered 153mm of rain in my North Somerset location.

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IIRC, last autumn was pretty dry and settled, notwithstanding the late October storm of course. I remember thinking how dry it had been up to the time i went to Malaysia for Xmas in the middle of December. Of course, someone flicked a switch the moment I left!

I could be wrong in my memories though; the ads I'm seeing on netweather at the moment keep prompting me to manage my retirement income better so perhaps my memory is fading (I'm not yet forty though, so it is a little irksome!).

 

September and November were below average here but October was very wet with 324mm, so the Autumn as a whole was about average.

Still had 100mm in September, can't see that this month. No real end in sight to the anticyclonic current pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It has certainly been very dry here so far this month.

With so much mid latitude blocking in the ens this could turn out one of the driest Septembers for some time.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

What's this '3mm' describe.. and rain.. what's that? (dry all month here)

 

Anyhow, GFS12z is an epic fail. Has a 984mb hurricane (strengthening) at 999mb in 24 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

The BBC is going for a max of 25C in the south-east during this coming week, although WeatherPro (which is normally pretty accurate) has downgraded its 25C prediction to 23C for my area.

 

The 'heatwave' at the start of September was continually downgraded and ended up being nothing special - hopefully this coming week will actually produce the notable warmth that the models have been showing!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

yep, no rain here since bank holiday monday 3 weeks ago. heading for the driest september since 2003.

so far ive lost no work due to drought stressed grass not growing, but thatll happen soon if we dont get plenty soon, and thats unlikely looking at the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Nice to finally get some prolonged dry weather. Still had to cut the lawn on the weekend but at least now its not growing at stupid speed.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Hear Hear!!

Along with 'Sceuro'

Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

My thought for the day is that 'polar vortex' should be added to the swear filter.

Lol yeah I know you have a dislike for that term knocker,when it is misused.

Be prepared for it to come into use more though as we go into the Winter half of the year.It is after all the main player as it deepens and expands and inevitably will be included in discussions.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Lol yeah I know you have a dislike for that term knocker,when it is misused.

Be prepared for it to come into use more though as we go into the Winter half of the year.It is after all the main player as it deepens and expands and inevitably will be included in discussions.

 

Purely as a matter interest Phil what definition of the PV is generally used in here given it's a feature of the lower and middle stratosphere in winter. The NH vortex doesn't isolate air as in the SH of course as it's not so well defined. I take it we are looking at subsiding air into the troposphere.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

My thought for the day is that 'polar vortex' should be added to the swear filter.

 

along with 'beasterly' or 'beast from the east' except when we actually get one..

 

ps that includes ramping of said phrases too!

 

plus that horrid little forlone chilly emoticon, :cold: , its ME and other 'non cold lovers' who should be using it as its doesnt look like a happy chappy being cold! but cold lovers use it...grrr...

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Purely as a matter interest Phil what definition of the PV is generally used in here given it's a feature of the lower and middle stratosphere in winter. The NH vortex doesn't isolate air as in the SH of course as it's not so well defined. I take it we are looking at subsiding air into the troposphere.

Hi Knocker,

 

Wrt to the 500hPa pattern i look at the PV as the main area of low heights within the area of the Arctic-the boundary following the PFJ ,usually the 552 thickness contour.

This of course is much more defined in Winter with those deep blues and purples over the high latitudes on the charts.

I havent seen any accepted definition on here for it but that's my view fwiw, and of course it s a moveable feature to a certain extent when it splits or becomes displaced from it's usual position over the Polar area through warmings.

I tend to use the term upper trough or simply a deep low if it's cut off when we see such low heights further south into mid-latitudes.

edit to add

Most of us seem to use the PV term when talking about both the Trophospheric(say 500hPa level) and Stratospheric models.I think as there are separate discussion threads for each then usually there's no misunderstanding.Not to say of course that views on either don't overlap into the other's thread from time to time.

 

 

There may be more learned explanations on here but that is my current understanding.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Hi Knocker,

Wrt to the 500hPa pattern i look at the PV as the main area of low heights within the area of the Arctic-the boundary following the PFJ ,usually the 552 thickness contour.

This of course is much more defined in Winter with those deep blues and purples over the high latitudes on the charts.

I havent seen any accepted definition on here for it but that's my view fwiw, and of course it s a moveable feature to a certain extent when it splits or becomes displaced from it's usual position over the Polar area through warmings.

I tend to use the term upper trough or simply a deep low if it's cut off when we see such low heights further south into mid-latitudes.

 

There may be more learned explanations on here but that is my current understanding.

 

Thanks Phil, seems a very sensible guide particularly the highlighted section.

 

And from the METO

 

There has been some press interest about what effect Hurricane Edouard, currently in the Western Atlantic, will have on the UK’s weather.

It’s still early days, but computer models currently suggest the storm will move into the Mid Atlantic and then track south towards the Azores, well away from the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Thanks Phil, seems a very sensible guide particularly the highlighted section.

 

And from the METO

 

There has been some press interest about what effect Hurricane Edouard, currently in the Western Atlantic, will have on the UK’s weather.

It’s still early days, but computer models currently suggest the storm will move into the Mid Atlantic and then track south towards the Azores, well away from the UK.

No problem mate. :)

I did add that bit at the end after you posted just for further clarification on the way Winter discussions tend to go in the different threads.

Both will understandably contain a lot of references to the said Vortex during Winter as i said earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hi Knocker,

 

Wrt to the 500hPa pattern i look at the PV as the main area of low heights within the area of the Arctic-the boundary following the PFJ ,usually the 552 thickness contour.

This of course is much more defined in Winter with those deep blues and purples over the high latitudes on the charts.

I havent seen any accepted definition on here for it but that's my view fwiw, and of course it s a moveable feature to a certain extent when it splits or becomes displaced from it's usual position over the Polar area through warmings.

I tend to use the term upper trough or simply a deep low if it's cut off when we see such low heights further south into mid-latitudes.

edit to add

Most of us seem to use the PV term when talking about both the Trophospheric(say 500hPa level) and Stratospheric models.I think as there are separate discussion threads for each then usually there's no misunderstanding.Not to say of course that views on either don't overlap into the other's thread from time to time.

 

 

There may be more learned explanations on here but that is my current understanding.

 

 

not a total favourite of Wilki but maybe this is a good enough explanation?

see link below

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

not a total favourite of Wilki but maybe this is a good enough explanation?

see link below

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

Yes good as any I reckon John.Pretty concise.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

on another topic=UK Met forecast system

They appear to have started to change it since this morning. I suppose I will get used to it eventually. Not over impressed just now though. Anyone else had a look at their 'new' forecast pages?

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Been catching up with various model output last night and this morning after a long and busy gap.

 

I'm sure I'm not alone on here in being delighted by much of the recent synoptic projections. I've been loving this often sunny, mostly warm, always dry Septtember, but I never dared to hope that all that might last until our last weekend outing of the summer.

 

I was convinced until very recently that by the time we take our tent out (to the Forest of Dean) next weekend (that of Saturday 27th Sept) that a big breakdown would have happenend by then -- I was sure just on th law of averages as much as anything else, that all the long overdue rain would be causing us a washout. Currently that's looking pretty unlikely though.

 

Still time for that to change I know, but odds still looking reasonable for now for a last summer blast for our last holiday/festival this year....  our tent is being put into retirement after this, because we'll be buying a campervan in the coming months! Oh yes ...

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

not much to say about the models atm. theres pretty good agreement, and the guys regularly poting on the md thread are explaining things perfectly. with nothing extreme (heat or cold) its nice to see unbiased posts that arent bigging up chances of heat or cold.

no real sign of proper 'autumnal weather' , just more high pressure dominance.

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