Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Just personally hope that the possible gradual breakdown of the settled conditions from the South-West on the models next week will yield some great thundery outbreaks. It's no fun really if a breakdown to unsettled weather isn't accompanied by torrential downpours and/or thunderstorms.

I suppose it's a good thing September can still provide enough warm air to the South/South-East for Low Pressure systems to tap into to help make thundery breakdowns possible still.

 

trust me, it can. i keep banging on about the great thunderstorm of sat setp 15 1973. similar synoptics, it came around 6pm, trundled up from france, a classic multi-cell squall line with spectacular updraft and proper violent lightning.

 

so i believe as things stand there is a real potential for something decent thunder wise.... knowing my luck itll just be whats become the usual dull wet mess with weak thunder here and there.

 

plus 11/9/06 of course. we had a decent storm then.

Edited September 12, 2014 by mushymanrob

[BlueHedgehog074]

Indeed! I would hate for the potential to become watered down, or it just becomes a non-event. Some of the models, like the GFS, do seem to continue to go for some sort of warm Easterly/South-Easterly feed next week, so hopefully something will still go bang eventually.

[Spikecollie]

I think I said earlier in the week that several French forecasting sites have been hinting at the thundery breakdown. They're pretty committed to it now just about country wide from Wednesday onward, so it looks like I'll have yet another "son et lumière"...

[TonyH]

trust me, it can. i keep banging on about the great thunderstorm of sat setp 15 1973. similar synoptics, it came around 6pm, trundled up from france, a classic multi-cell squall line with spectacular updraft and proper violent lightning.

 

so i believe as things stand there is a real potential for something decent thunder wise.... knowing my luck itll just be whats become the usual dull wet mess with weak thunder here and there.

 

plus 11/9/06 of course. we had a decent storm then.

Seems to have been quite localised those storms though looking through the records.

I need to hear a rumble of thunder this month to keep the record going for each month of 2014

Edited September 12, 2014 by TonyH

[Evening thunder]

No thank you, deep Atlantic lows are the most boring weather type we can get!

 

No way, there's actually quite a lot of weather happening and meteorological interest. That award goes to anticyclonic gloom!

[MP-R]

Not really. If anticyclonic gloom is boring, then cyclonic gloom is even worse. There's not much interesting about slate-grey skies and persistent moderate rain, I'm sorry to say.

 

Are you sure you're not mixing Atlantic storms with just general zonality, Scott? I share your feeling about cyclonic gloom but that tends to just come from southwesterlies and sometimes westerlies with a tropical origin. Atlantic storms on the other hand I've always found to be more interesting with strong winds, shorter periods of heavy rain (and often a defined squall line) followed by a day or two of sunshine and showers. November 2009 and March 2008 had a few instances of this.

 

I suppose the saving grace of anticyclonic gloom is that at least it's dry so can provide usable conditions mild or cold. The downside of course being that for weather enthusiasts it can be quite trying due to the longevity of such spells.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed! I would hate for the potential to become watered down, or it just becomes a non-event. Some of the models, like the GFS, do seem to continue to go for some sort of warm Easterly/South-Easterly feed next week, so hopefully something will still go bang eventually.

 

 

oh lord.... since posting this morning both the gfs and ecm now have high to our near northwest building in and suppressing the lows influence. imho this is a storm potential downgrade.

 

Seems to have been quite localised those storms though looking through the records.

I need to hear a rumble of thunder this month to keep the record going for each month of 2014

 

were they?... i dont know, i have no access to the records. but i do know the airflow was a very warm, humid southeasterly off southern france. i dont know where the storm formed, i have a dodgy memory of the tv weatherman saying they rumbled up from france....but that might be for another event.

the one on the 15th crossed 'us' (living just east of derby back then about halfway between derby and notts) , this storm system hit the west first, traveling north, so derby got it. then we got it, and watched as it cleared us nottingham getting it. it was a squal line at about 30' to the airflow . we used to get quite a few like that, in fact in the 60's and early 70's that was the most common form of thunderstorm we got. as opposed to unicellular ones that only hit reletively small areas.

 

needless to say, id love to experience a storm like that again.

i like anticyclonic gloom in winter ... i like the eeriness.

[knocker]

oh lord.... since posting this morning both the gfs and ecm now have high to our near northwest building in and suppressing the lows influence. imho this is a storm potential downgrade.

 

 

Not sure where you got the northwest from but perhaps a tad pessimistic.Hope lies eternal................

[Evening thunder]

Not really. If anticyclonic gloom is boring, then cyclonic gloom is even worse. There's not much interesting about slate-grey skies and persistent moderate rain, I'm sorry to say.

 

Well yes if the lows did just provide cloud/persistent rain then I agree. But they tend to provide many types of weather. A front with rain/wind, clear skies behind the front, squally showers (even thunder/hail/snow if you'er lucky), strong winds, squall lines. Not to everyone's taste but to a weather enthusiast like me better than cloud and nothing else days on end.

 

In anticyclonic gloom I tend to turn off, as it's not capable of doing anything (except burning off), with deep lows I'm usually much more tuned in to current weather, latest radar and models etc. Maybe not so suitable to outdoor activity without having to keep an eye on the skies, but I tend to discuss my weather interest more on here

 

Maybe we get a different type of low down here, or a higher tenancy for fronts to blow through and get clearances with a little shelter. But being serious location may well be a factor, at uni in Egham it tends to more often be just a band of moderate rain and still at least as much cloud, which I find less interesting, whereas back home rain can more often be heavy with winter fronts, with heavy showers/CB cloudscapes more often following with clear skies between.  I also find stormy seas quite a sight to (safely) watch.

 

If it were a mild cloudy drizzly/damp flow between a Euro high and a low to the NW I agree one of the worst types.

 

In summer I'd be more inclined to think deep lows were one of the worst types too, would much prefer a warm/hot thundery spell. Also in winter I'd prefer snow/cold spells of course, but would still find them interesting.

[Evening thunder]

Bit of a longer post than planned above..

 

Anyway here's something that may surprise many (even me with the strength of the anmalies)

 

Last winter averaged the wettest on record with this focussed towards Southern England, however across most of England sunshine totals were above average, significantly so in places.

 

Rainfall anomaly - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/16/2014_16_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

Sunshine anomaly - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/16/2014_16_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

Seems to have been much duller in some North Western hilly/mountainous areas due to orographic cloud creation perhaps.

[Bobby]

This month is turning into one of the driest and most boring Septembers in memory. Still no any concrete sign of a change from the anticyclonic pattern. I hope when Autumn does finally arrive it arrives with vengeance.

[mushymanrob]

Not sure where you got the northwest from but perhaps a tad pessimistic.Hope lies eternal................

 

here sir, gfs 06z

 

an excerpt from the sequence

 

 

 

plus the 00z ecm

 

 

with high pressure building or ridging in from the northwest, itll close the door on the thundery lows exit when it was expected to crawl northwards and over us. ok we still have a 2 day potential next fri-sat, but thats half of what was suggested yesterday

[Summer Sun]

The weather later next week looks very uncertain this is how the beeb describe it

 

Briefly less settled

 

Rain Extent limited

 

Potentially warm

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/29183106

[TonyH]

This month is turning into one of the driest and most boring Septembers in memory. Still no any concrete sign of a change from the anticyclonic pattern. I hope when Autumn does finally arrive it arrives with vengeance.

October or November due for record breaking wetness I should think Bobby 

[draztik]

This month is turning into one of the driest and most boring Septembers in memory. Still no any concrete sign of a change from the anticyclonic pattern. I hope when Autumn does finally arrive it arrives with vengeance.

JMA seeing a big change on the way for October; with Nov & Dec also looking Atlantic driven with a fired up jet! We live in hope!

Unfortunately the ecm monthly doesn't agree. A snapshot into October shows

The ecm monthly control indicates a true Indian summer is on the way for periods into October. Both the mean &,control trend unsettled into last third of Sept however, before a return to the scandi ridge is shown.

Edited September 13, 2014 by draztik

[Bobby]

October or November due for record breaking wetness I should think Bobby 

 

Things tend to balance out so I wouldn't be surprised at a sudden switch to deluges at some point, little sign of that yet though.

 

JMA seeing a big change on the way for October; with Nov & Dec also looking Atlantic driven with a fired up jet! We live in hope!

Unfortunately the ecm monthly doesn't agree. A snapshot into October shows

 

I'll wager the current pattern will largely continue until mid-October, then a pattern change to a stormy unsettled spell which will continue into December.

Edited September 13, 2014 by Bobby

[Captain Shortwave]

It is worth remembering that these east/north easterlies will only remain warm for so long. The continent will soon be into its proper cooling down process as the shorter days take effect.

[MP-R]

Things tend to balance out so I wouldn't be surprised at a sudden switch to deluges at some point, little sign of that yet though.

 

 

I'll wager the current pattern will largely continue until mid-October, then a pattern change to a stormy unsettled spell which will continue into December.

 

2009 is testament to that. Very dry September and first half of October, gradually more unsettled through the rest of October, then we all know what November was like!

[Bobby]

2009 is testament to that. Very dry September and first half of October, gradually more unsettled through the rest of October, then we all know what November was like!

 

December was interesting too!

[Milhouse]

Wow this is a temperature chart straight out of mid July

 

[johnholmes]

Conor I really think Telford must be the cloudiest place in the UK according to your daily complaints about how little sun you get. May I ask what is the nearest official site that records sunshine?

 

odd- as I tried to reply it refused me that hence my post on its own, now I see his post is missing?

 

Shawbury is some 18 miles by road, must have a look at the topography to see if Telford really is that much different in topography, weather etc,from what Shawbury report.

 

Telford is on higher ground than Shawbury, hence the number of times Shawbury records lower overnight temperatures than surrounding areas. Its elevation may also create more cloud but it seems a bit odd that Telford is reported by Conor as so cloudy when the report from Shawbury, in pretty much any wind direcction does not support this view!

 

Not sure how far this web site is from Conor=Dawley, Telford?

http://www.dawleyweather.co.uk/

Edited September 13, 2014 by johnholmes

[conor123]

Conor I really think Telford must be the cloudiest place in the UK according to your daily complaints about how little sun you get. May I ask what is the nearest official site that records sunshine?

 

odd- as I tried to reply it refused me that hence my post on its own, now I see his post is missing?

 

Shawbury is some 18 miles by road, must have a look at the topography to see if Telford really is that much different in topography, weather etc,from what Shawbury report.

 

Telford is on higher ground than Shawbury, hence the number of times Shawbury records lower overnight temperatures than surrounding areas. Its elevation may also create more cloud but it seems a bit odd that Telford is reported by Conor as so cloudy when the report from Shawbury, in pretty much any wind direcction does not support this view!

 

Not sure how far this web site is from Conor=Dawley, Telford?

http://www.dawleyweather.co.uk/

Definitely seems that way 

 

Just over 160m above sea level in this part of Telford, often get quite different conditions to Shawbury here, can be good in the winter as often snowy from marginal setups but much cloudier & cooler than Shawbury/rest of the Midlands in the summer, e.g today, maxed near 20c in Shawbury, 17.4c max here.

Also Shropshire Hills to the west/south west of here must have some effect, most of them about 300-400 meters in height but often kill showers/storms from the SW.

[johnholmes]

so how far, where are you to the weather station at Dawley?

[conor123]

so how far, where are you to the weather station at Dawley?

Dawley's about 4 miles from here so definitely a much more reliable station than Shawbury, Dawley itself often has it's only mini microclimate, many sunny winter days that are foggy down in Dawley or Ironbridge.

[WhiteFox]

2009 is testament to that. Very dry September and first half of October, gradually more unsettled through the rest of October, then we all know what November was like!

IIRC, last autumn was pretty dry and settled, notwithstanding the late October storm of course. I remember thinking how dry it had been up to the time i went to Malaysia for Xmas in the middle of December. Of course, someone flicked a switch the moment I left!

I could be wrong in my memories though; the ads I'm seeing on netweather at the moment keep prompting me to manage my retirement income better so perhaps my memory is fading (I'm not yet forty though, so it is a little irksome!).