Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[MP-R]

Even had some wintry precipitation here today, albeit brief and in heavier showers. That coupled with 11 frosts so far makes February just about acceptable, just nothing special. Looks like it could feel (dare I say it) warm for a brief time next weekend though the models paint a very up-and-down scenario for early March.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hoping frosty's posts come off! settled and springlike weather arriving

[snowblizzard]

Almost makes you wonder whether the weather is being manipulated to attack America. They get all the fun :-(

It's those damn Russians, they are controlling the weather!

Seriously though, I think we are now looking at a series of winters where USA & Canada get frigid weather conditions, whilst Western Europe & UK bask in relatively mild winters! 

[Interitus]

From the MOD thread (and mentioned elsewhere)

 

There's change afoot in ENSO regions with a Modoki taking shape. That has very different weather patterns to a regular El Nino.

There has been a weak Modoki for a while now and just thought it was interesting to see the extremely close match between the typical Modoki anomalies - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

 

 

and the actual anomalies this January - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/1

 

 

It's those damn Russians, they are controlling the weather!

Seriously though, I think we are now looking at a series of winters where USA & Canada get frigid weather conditions, whilst Western Europe & UK bask in relatively mild winters! 

To be fair it's not all of the US and Canada though, as can be seen in the anomaly chart above. It is about 2500 miles from Seattle in the western US to the snows of Boston in the east, which is about the same distance from London to the cold anomaly in western Siberia.

[snowblizzard]

From the MOD thread (and mentioned elsewhere)

 

There has been a weak Modoki for a while now and just thought it was interesting to see the extremely close match between the typical Modoki anomalies - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

 

 

and the actual anomalies this January - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/1

 

 

To be fair it's not all of the US and Canada though, as can be seen in the anomaly chart above. It is about 2500 miles from Seattle in the western US to the snows of Boston in the east, which is about the same distance from London to the cold anomaly in western Siberia.

Western side of USA & Canada usually much less cold than Central & NE states.

And, that's still a massive area of frigid air! 

[knocker]

If you take the contiguous US this winter is up there as one of the warmist on record and below average snowfall. The events in the NE have skewed people's perception.

Edited February 22, 2015 by knocker

[Interitus]

Western side of USA & Canada usually much less cold than Central & NE states.

And, that's still a massive area of frigid air!

The chart shows the anomalies though - the relative difference from normal. At a glance that massive area of frigid air is smaller than the massive area of milder than normal air.

[ribster]

Spring feels a long way off today, perishing out there. Then we can look forward to the Great British summer, wind, rain, a mini-heatwave and a thunderstorm!

[Milhouse]

Its definitely a day for staying indoors. Not unless you like this sort of weather. Im quite looking forward to the coming week. A fair bit of strengthening sunshine to really show off the lengthening days. And temperatures edging back to where they should be at this time of year.

[cheeky_monkey]

Western side of USA & Canada usually much less cold than Central & NE states.

And, that's still a massive area of frigid air!

not so if you takeout the western coastal fringe the western central areas of US & Canada are usually colder than the eastern central areas simply as they are not effected by tropical air masses from the gulf of mexico ..the last two winters these have been absent from the eastern side of North America hence these areas being colder than normal.

[Eugene]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure area will move East to the NW of Scotland and send active fronts quickly East today and tonight followed by a very strong and cold showery Westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North at first. Milder generally later and maybe drier in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week and down across the UK ahead of fronts and retreating back North in their wake. Longer term the flow appears to weaken and becomes more diffuse as multiple options are shown.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with spell of wind and rain later today and again midweek book ended with cold and showery weather with gales in the North. The cold period late in the week will be much less pronounced over the South and replaced quite quickly everywhere with mild SW winds with occasional rain almost anywhere at times but chiefly towards the North and West. High pressure develops near the UK late in the run migrating NE and threatening the quiet weather with bright days and frosty night with a cold East wind over the South to end the period with the threat of wintry showers in the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run differs only in as much as it keeps the UK windier and more unsettled for longer into the second week as the strong Westerly flow persists. It's not until late in the run that High pressure becomes most influential just to the South with temperatures throughout the run gradually returning to average values after the variability of those in the first week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters support a 60/40 split in favour of Atlantic westerly winds driving the weather across the UK in two weeks time. The 60% show High pressure to the SW with Low pressure to the North driving rain bearing fronts east across the UK periodically. The 40% show a mix of high pressure just to the SE or North-West with fine weather for many with frosts by night.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and Saturday and rather cold on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the operational well with an active Westerly flow across the Atlantic maintaining changeable conditions across the UK alternating between wet and windy weather and sunshine and showers, wintry on hills especially in the North all in association with active troughs crossing West to east across the UK all week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very changeable pattern too with a lot of rather cold and showery weather between occasional bands of milder SW winds with rain. It's not until the last few frames of the run that High pressure noses more meaningfully towards the West of the UK in the wake of a cold Northerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a breezy and changeable week with some sunshine but occasional rain at times in the form of showers in cold West or NW winds and a band of wet and windy weather midweek in a brief milder interlude. Then late in the week a milder SW flow takes hold more substantially with rain at times especially in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows  a much more unsettled period throughout the duration of the run today with a strong west to east flow over the Atlantic maintained and delivering the UK spells of wet and windy weather in somewhat milder weather and colder more showery spells especially over the North where snow could fall at times particularly over the coming week. The run ends with a small but vigorous Low near to NW Ireland with rain and gales for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 90.0 pts over UKMO at 88.0 pts and GFS at 85.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.7 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.6 pts over GFS at 40.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS Improvements in the current changeable, unsettled pattern of weather across the UK look quite slow again from this morning's output. Both UKMO and ECM continue to paint a very changeable pattern as we move into March but probably less of polar maritime rather cold weather than of late but still with wind and rain prominent at times. There are variations on a changeable theme from GEM longer term and NAVGEM looks broadly similar.. The main culprit of the slow build of pressure lies with a Jet flow which refuses to lie down and repeatedly flattens any ridging from the Azores High. As this High extends more influence towards Iberia and the Med later winds will back off somewhat towards the SW or West which should see temperatures recover somewhat across the UK with less influence of any cold pools behind cold fronts to the NW. Nevertheless if it's sustained fine and sunny Spring weather your looking for as we enter March you may have to wait a little longer yet. GFS is worth a mention as it shows a cold High to the North and NE and the threat of something cold from the East late in the operational's run but it is poorly supported and will likely be removed in the upcoming 6Z and 12z runs. So in Summary typical early March weather seems likely over the next few weeks with a Westerly flow most likely delivering some rain for all, especially across the North and West with some brighter and chillier phases when patchy frost is likely by night otherwise temperatures look broadly close to average for much of the time after this coming week.  

Issued at 08:30 Sunday February 22nd 2015

 

 

What about those looking for a very cold snowy spell?....Early March can deliver that.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Eugene

[Eugene]

It's quite discerning how the coldies have been forgotton, it's still winter until the Spring Equinox, people don't look for cool weather in late August and don't give up on Summer like weather until late October so why abandon looking for Winter so early, don't give me people are fed up of Winter because it wasn't good enough for them, people don't give up on Summer in late August even if it's been bad upto that point.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Eugene

[cheese]

It's quite discerning how the coldies have been forgotton, it's still winter until the Spring Equinox, people don't look for cool weather in late August and don't give up on Summer like weather until late October so why abandon looking for Winter so early, don't give me people are fed up of Winter because it wasn't good enough for them, people don't give up on Summer in late August even if it's been bad upto that point.

There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

 

We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

 

By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

Edited February 22, 2015 by cheese

[h2005__uk__]

It's quite discerning how the coldies have been forgotton, it's still winter until the Spring Equinox, people don't look for cool weather in late August and don't give up on Summer like weather until late October so why abandon looking for Winter so early, don't give me people are fed up of Winter because it wasn't good enough for them, people don't give up on Summer in late August even if it's been bad upto that point.

 

Late October is a milestone because the clocks go back and the sunset is then before 5pm - it then really feels like winter's on the way. Once the sunsets get back to where they were just before the clocks go back - i.e. beginning of March - then it feels like spring's on the way. Most people aren't going to start looking for winter at the end of August when it's still getting dark at 8pm.

Edited February 22, 2015 by h2005uk

[Eugene]

But it is rare indeed and March 2013 was a once in 50 years event so a long way to go for that to be repeated. However statistics aside, why will there be one this March? There is no sign of an SSW, the experts (Dr Cohen & others) suggest no Northern Blocking, and the models currently say no. If we did a post and every time we mentioned what could happen it would be a bit daft! Looks like the best we are going to get, wintry wise is a wet and cool zonal flow and TBH for the SE that is as bad as it could be in March for us.

The GFS op D5-7 looking like a ridge will keep the south dry: gfs-0-120.png gfs-0-168 (2).png

Then from D8-10 again HP moving back in: gfs-0-216 (1).png

Looking at the GEM and although that has backtracked on the Siberian High stretching west it remains very zonal:

D8: gem-0-198.png

Wish I could trust the GFS but if it right then ECM has made a complete and utter fail, and the verification stats suggest otherwise.

 

Hey i didn't mention the whole month of March, i said early March, a cold and snowy spell then isn't as rare as you think, with the seas surrounding us at their coldest and Arctic airmasses at their coldest it's a very good time for cold, infact snowfall is more likely than early December.

 

My point was Gibby should be saying there is no sign of a cold and snowy spell instead.

[AderynCoch]

There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

 

We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

 

By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

You should be comparing with autumnal weather in August, not wintry. And that most certainly is possible as last year showed.

[knocker]

Ryan Maue

 

"GFS upgrade still looks to suffer from extended "skill dropout" periods while ECMWF is unaffected".

Edited February 23, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Oooh

Chart weatherbell

 

[mushymanrob]

It's quite discerning how the coldies have been forgotton, it's still winter until the Spring Equinox, people don't look for cool weather in late August and don't give up on Summer like weather until late October so why abandon looking for Winter so early, don't give me people are fed up of Winter because it wasn't good enough for them, people don't give up on Summer in late August even if it's been bad upto that point.

 

seriously?...

 

and meteorologically its spring on march 1st as you well know. we all know we might get some late cold in march, or even april, so what?

and id suggest its the coldies who have given up, and have forgotten about winter themselves... where are they? sm, ns, teits, wib, etc they know its now highly unlikely that there will be a proper cold/snowy spell...heck even frosty is spring-ramping! lol.

so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.

[summer blizzard]

Rather optimistic for a warm(ish) March given the relative confidence in pressure building and the cool stratosphere encouraging a +AO. Of course warm in March could still be unsettled and zonal south westerlies.

 

[stewfox]

 

so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.

 

Gibby has gained my respect this winter in telling us how it is and what the models show even into FI

 

I've had one big heavy snow fall this winter that had all gone in just about 24hrs and I think some sleet today.

 

I remember going to work in a blizzard cira early April 1988 or 1989 so wont give up just yet.

Edited February 23, 2015 by stewfox

[Eugene]

seriously?...

 

and meteorologically its spring on march 1st as you well know. we all know we might get some late cold in march, or even april, so what?

and id suggest its the coldies who have given up, and have forgotten about winter themselves... where are they? sm, ns, teits, wib, etc they know its now highly unlikely that there will be a proper cold/snowy spell...heck even frosty is spring-ramping! lol.

so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.

 

 

Ok by August 23rd, no more mention of summer, only Autumn discussion ok, Deal Mushy?.... LOL, yeah right.

[Nick L]

Let's cut out the childish warm vs cold stuff please.

[Eugene]

There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

 

We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

 

By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

 

 

Who mentioned wintry weather in August, wow no chance of wintry weather then unlike now.

 

Summer like weather is not at all common in March, you mention exceptional March weather so i will too, March 2013.

 

My point still stands its still winter and the chance of wintry weather does not all of a sudden finish on March 1st just like Summer doesn't on Sept 1st, early Sept can be very hot, 35C has been recorded then.

[Eugene]

Oh just one last thing, Gibby's model analysis are excellent and anybody who devotes as much of their free time to write such detailed posts has my respect, i just think the focus should still be on Wintry weather for a few more weeks, you would think by the replies i've gotten i want him to focus on Wintry weather in late April or something and not in Winter.