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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Bring on the cold N/Westerlies and snow showers.Spring on hold for the forseeable.

ECM0-240.GIF?18-12

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Bring on the cold N/Westerlies and snow showers.Spring on hold for the forseeable.

ECM0-240.GIF?18-12

 

It's still winter isn't it? Naturally spring is "on hold". But don't worry, it'll be here soon enough. It really is only a matter of time. 

 

Looks like february might have a decent shout at coming in as a "below average" winter month. It even managed to deliver snow to Bournemouth! 

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Bring on the cold N/Westerlies and snow showers.Spring on hold for the forseeable.

ECM0-240.GIF?18-12

This really is comical, that's 10 days away. Likely to see pigs fly before that comes to fruitation.

One thing that has been a constant theme this winter is the classic Stella charts in FI but when we get to the reliable we get cold rain and watered down upper 850's.

Also even if that chart did come off, with the strength of the sun and longer days at best your get tempory slush cover in favoured spots. All in all completely pointless. Would much rather have calm cool sunny days.

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

These precipitation charts are hilarious, most of the precitstion that will fall will be wintry mix, more likely to be rain and abit of sleet. No snow cover away from the highest ground in Scotland, really don't see the excitement, with the longer days and the strength of the sun getting stronger day by day this will in turn be another dull, wet and windy spell that we can stick in the bin with the rest of this winter cold snaps. Countdown to spring has well and truly begun for a lot of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

This really is comical, that's 10 days away. Likely to see pigs fly before that comes to fruitation.

One thing that has been a constant theme this winter is the classic Stella charts in FI but when we get to the reliable we get cold rain and watered down upper 850's.

Also even if that chart did come off, with the strength of the sun and longer days at best your get tempory slush cover in favoured spots. All in all completely pointless. Would much rather have calm cool sunny days.

Come back in spring then.Not comical either when read in conjunction with the meto medium term forecast.Merley pointing out that there is NO sign of spring yet thankfully.Early spring does not float my boat.

 

You do not have to wait 10 days either

ECU0-144.GIF?18-12

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Feb 2015 to Tuesday 3 Mar 2015:

During Sunday, an active frontal system is likely to move east across the country bringing rain and strong winds or gales. This rain will be heavy in places, especially western parts, with hill snow in the north for a time. A colder westerly airflow will follow into Monday bringing sunshine and blustery showers, these wintry over the hills and perhaps to lower levels in the north. Windy with gales, locally severe in the north, likely. Thereafter, unsettled conditions are expected to prevail with northwestern areas seeing the greatest amounts of rainfall as well as some wintry showers, with the driest conditions in the south and east. It will often be windy with gales at times, locally severe in exposure. Temperatures then often below average and feeling cold during showery spells

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

Come back in spring then.Not comical either when read in conjunction with the meto medium term forecast.Merley pointing out that there is NO sign of spring yet thankfully.Early spring does not float my boat.

 

You do not have to wait 10 days either

ECU0-144.GIF?18-12

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Feb 2015 to Tuesday 3 Mar 2015:

During Sunday, an active frontal system is likely to move east across the country bringing rain and strong winds or gales. This rain will be heavy in places, especially western parts, with hill snow in the north for a time. A colder westerly airflow will follow into Monday bringing sunshine and blustery showers, these wintry over the hills and perhaps to lower levels in the north. Windy with gales, locally severe in the north, likely. Thereafter, unsettled conditions are expected to prevail with northwestern areas seeing the greatest amounts of rainfall as well as some wintry showers, with the driest conditions in the south and east. It will often be windy with gales at times, locally severe in exposure. Temperatures then often below average and feeling cold during showery spells

Spin it however you like but it doesn't imply decent snowfall for the vast majority.Being cold for colds sake does not excite me particularly
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Went down to the local country park this morning. Sitting by the lake in the sun it was quite warm and there was an air of tranquility as nature stirred. Now I can understand many liking snow (not the hysteria). I can understand many liking cold as the structure of ice is fascinating. But getting excited about periodic incursions of monotonous Pm or rPm is beyond me.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Went down to the local country park this morning. Sitting by the lake in the sun it was quite warm and there was an air of tranquility as nature stirred. Now I can understand many liking snow (not the hysteria). I can understand many liking cold as the structure of ice is fascinating. But getting excited about periodic incursions of monotonous Pm or rPm is beyond me.

What is monotonous about Thunder snow and hail and active weather fronts?That is what was delivered last month and is the norm for polar N/W flows.

Sheffield and north Derbyshire had 6" of snow in parts and we have only just lost snow from that.

Monotonus is Anticyclonic murk and no frosts to boot.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

maybe this is better suited to banter/ramps, ill let the mods decide..

but i see nothing good at all, unless you like chilly northwesterlies (at times) for the sake of it. its possibly the worst weather we can expect for late february/winter as itll not produce a deep cold spell (unless things change) , unless you like with altitude youll be unlikely to see much if any snow...most of us lowlanders 'darn sarf' wont and most of which does fall will melt.

as i see it its just as benign as the acg of last week, albeit more lively. it delays any early onset of spring like weather, but wont be cold enough for snow/cold fans. a lose lose situation. it looks like being quite wet too.... so in reality i dont think theres much on offer at all for just about all of us.

im hoping this rather familiar pattern , thats cropped up alot since late autumn , actually shifts soon... a cold spring is pretty miserable (two years ago at least was dry, bright and sunny for most of the time, i think id prefer that to repeat rather then cold wet windy northwesterlies.)

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The suns strong, theres that fresh spring scent to the air, birds are singing their springtime courtship songs, primroses, snowdrops, crocus, are all out in flower, nature doesnt calendar watch - it IS like early spring today.... never mind what might happen in a few days time.

besides, a chilly northwesterly with some wintriness (chiefly for high ground) is normal in spring albeit unpleasant.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Good agreement on a very unsettled period coming up bringing strong winds and rain to many areas with some snow for the northern hills and maybe to lower levels in Scotland at times towards day 9 and 10 we have disagreement GEM try's to settle things down whilst GFS maintains the unsettled end to winter with low pressure never far away

 

GEM

 

gem-0-216.png?12gem-0-240.png?12

gem-1-216.png?12gem-1-240.png?12

 

GFS

 

gfs-0-216.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12

gfs-1-222.png?12gfs-1-240.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Surprised to see on the BBC a piece about the limpet being the strongest thing in the natural world.

Personally, I always thought it was Greenland Polar Vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Surprised to see on the BBC a piece about the limpet being the strongest thing in the natural world.

Personally, I always thought it was Greenland Polar Vortex.

I'm sure it is no coincidence that Nick Sussex commonly (and disgustedly) terms it the 'limpet' vortex. Only thing that will shift it. :bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

archivesnh-2009-12-17-0-0.png

Wrong, the coldest winters ever in the US were 76/77 77/78 and 78/79.

Now, give me those three winters in the UK any day!

It's all about the jet streams wave length which this year has been long but in the late 70's was short so that both the Eastern US and Western Europe got severe cold.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Wrong, the coldest winters ever in the US were 76/77 77/78 and 78/79.

Now, give me those three winters in the UK any day!

It's all about the jet streams wave length which this year has been long but in the late 70's was short so that both the Eastern US and Western Europe got severe cold.

Andy

 

Not correct although 78/9 was the coldest. This winter is on course to be one of the warmest in the contig. US.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Terrible end to a terrible winter by the looks of things. As with the whole of the past 15 months there is nothing in the outlook to look forward to. Just another northerly being cut off, before it gets going, by cold zonal dross which will give exactly the same rubbish to NE Scotland as earlier in the winter: endless wind, little frost, bone dry when it's cold enough for snow, rain when it's not :wallbash:

 

Cold zonality is good for nothing. Windy all the time with sub-5C maxima but struggling to get below freezing at night. It gives nothing akin to a winter wonderland. It's just awful and tediously boring in stark contrast to the high pressure last week when frosts were achieved with ease and the ground white morning after morning despite maxes reaching 8-11C.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Wrong, the coldest winters ever in the US were 76/77 77/78 and 78/79.

Now, give me those three winters in the UK any day!

It's all about the jet streams wave length which this year has been long but in the late 70's was short so that both the Eastern US and Western Europe got severe cold.

Andy

 

Not sure what I'm wrong about.  :cc_confused:  I just posted the first chart I could think of that refuted the earlier assertion that a frigid NE USA equals a mild Western Europe.

 

Of course there will be many other examples.

 

Anyway, a wet, windy and chilly exit to winter here. Now eagerly awaiting updates to the new super-duper JPI (July Prediction Index) this summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

 

Terrible end to a terrible winter by the looks of things. As with the whole of the past 15 months there is nothing in the outlook to look forward to. Just another northerly being cut off, before it gets going, by cold zonal dross which will give exactly the same rubbish to NE Scotland as earlier in the winter: endless wind, little frost, bone dry when it's cold enough for snow, rain when it's not :wallbash:
 
Cold zonality is good for nothing. Windy all the time with sub-5C maxima but struggling to get below freezing at night. It gives nothing akin to a winter wonderland. It's just awful and tediously boring in stark contrast to the high pressure last week when frosts were achieved with ease and the ground white morning after morning despite maxes reaching 8-11C.

 

 

yeah, agree cold zonality sucks, for south, can also see your location struggling with mountains in the way

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

...possibly as early as Friday for e.g. Cotswolds (and Wales more surely, e.g. Brecon Beacons); possibly across to Chilterns....BUT not phasing preferentially with diurnal cycle; depth temps high anyway so settling very temporary; WBFL up at circa 600m and moreover, a rear-edge gig so PPN rates/amounts falling as the colder air tucks-in while the PPN envelope departs E. So, bar a few upland locations, not expected to be anything other than a passing note of interest.

Text in bold, pretty much sums up this winter overall.

Lets hope the models carry on showing some calmer options, esp as march starts, time to feel springlike.

Not to early to hot otherwise the GW brigade will start appearing in the tabloids.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Never thought I'd say this but this desperate search for anything remotely cold is really getting on my t*ts. now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I retain my opinion that the output is pretty poor for late Feb. Stuff in a largely westerly pattern it does make it a bit underwhelming. 

 

GFS tries to please me in FI..

 

Rtavn3603.gif

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Exit official winter for the south according to latest models. Still some wintry mix at times for the north, especially the hills. In some ways it's more reminiscent of Easter weather, which can nevertheless still deliver snow even further south during the polar maritime incursions. 

 

Two reasonable cold spells this winter without delivering much in the way of snow. Still better than previous winter. Statistically given the latest model outputs winter is likely to finish around half a degree above the 1961-1990 mean. Not bad esp. as some of us find that coldest of 30 yr means a bizarre and out of date benchmark.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Another frustrating winter draws to an end for those looking for snow and prolonged cold.Two on the trot for much of lowland Europe, mostly snowless. Again, Southern Britain hardly seeing a dry snow flake. Plenty of snow at elevation in most mountain regions, especially Western Alps and High Spanish Mountains. My daughter in Stockholm reports a rather limited cold winter with snowfall not lasting that long and my son who lives in Vancouver has a mild winter again, max 13C yesterday, hardly any snowfall. All in a complete contrast to the interior of N. American brutal cold and record snowfall in parts of New England.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I retain my opinion that the output is pretty poor for late Feb. Stuff in a largely westerly pattern it does make it a bit underwhelming. 

 

GFS tries to please me in FI..

 

Rtavn3603.gif

This year seems to be flying by, especially when you think that Easter is only 4 weeks away from the date of that chart above.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Glad to see that even if it's not cold enough for snow, it's going to be very wet, windy, chilly and active between now and the end of Feb/early March. The last 2 weeks have been painfully dull for virtually ALL types of weather fans. If it's not going to be snowing, then I hope the rest of Feb, March, April are zonal with very wet and windy spells to keep us on our toes before the long boring model months of spring and summer arrive. I do hope we see plenty of Thunderstorms and if not a cool but very wet summer atlantic summer ahead.

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