Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[cheese]

I hope not each to their own, we need rain it's imperative in sustaining large populations, look at California which are currently in a water crisis fortunately we are not in their shoes. I like diversity HP dominance equates to snooze fest, I do not mind brief encounters but I like the pattern to be fluid, in winter it is particularly frustrating. Come August the gales and rain can go running but for now, it is not the time of year to bask in the sunshine or do recreational activities. So it is wasteful, in Summer months not. Today's rain is warmly received.

Rain is useful, but only if it's from a thunderstorm, otherwise it's a waste of time. Well, I don't mind it if I'm warm and dry indoors, but if I'm going anyway then it's by far my least favourite type of weather.

 

It's pretty miserable right now though mind. Some sunshine would be great,

Edited February 13, 2015 by cheese

[Daniel*]

Rain is useful, but only if it's from a thunderstorm, otherwise it's a waste of time. Well, I don't mind it if I'm warm and dry indoors, but if I'm going anyway then it's by far my least favourite type of weather.

 

It's pretty miserable right now though mind. Some sunshine would be great,

If we relied on thunderstorms we would be in peril.

It is good to have a taste of all - you'd surely get bored with the same old weather type?

Not many are dancing & screaming at this time of year, what happened to this country's backbone.

[snow mad]

For those who don't have access to the ECM data on Weatherbell - the WSI blog has posted up some charts from the most recent ECM32. Headline - cooler into March.

 

 

 

Images courtesy of WSI  ...  http://www.wsi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/ECM_125.png

great we've just had another crap winter and the perpetual autumn is about to continue! Roll on summer!

[blizzard81]

great we've just had another crap winter and the perpetual autumn is about to continue! Roll on summer!

I agree, much too late imo. Much hope was placed in this Winter but that persistent pv over north east Canada totally ruined it for us! Not a technical post but in a nutshell!

[Bristawl Si]

Winter 2014/15:

Don't believe the hype!

Until the next time - wishing every single person on NW good health thru' the Spring and Summer.
Winter 15/16 will hopefully 'deliver' for more of the UK.

Edited February 14, 2015 by Paul

[joggs]

Fergieweather,cant say enough,thanks for your knowledgable input and kuedos to mo this winter,been outstanding imo re med to long term.I know people are reluctant to acknowledge it on here.re amatuers v prof but even prof get it wrong time to time.Now this

season(doffs cap)mo been spot on.

[mushymanrob]

i like the outlook this morning... plenty of mild enough days on offer, i likes my early mild   and the best thing is that pressure will be high enough across southern regions to keep the worst of the rain well north...

[Penrith Snow]

Fergieweather,cant say enough,thanks for your knowledgable input and kuedos to mo this winter,been outstanding imo re med to long term.I know people are reluctant to acknowledge it on here.re amatuers v prof but even prof get it wrong time to time.Now this

season(doffs cap)mo been spot on.

Agreed, Fergie's input this winter has been fantastic, helps keep members feet on the ground when models through up a ghost cold spell.

Keep it up Fergie!

Andy

[coldcomfort]

ECM not quite so keen to keep everything farther north though Mushy, with only the extreme south avoiding some proper rain at times if it were to verify. Irrespective of that however it does look like becoming mild, even very mild from midweek and if FI is to be believed that's pretty much how it will stay through until the end of official winter. Where we go thereafter is now the big question for me, but I wouldn't want to bet against northern blocking delivering a cold spring....you just know how things work in this part of the world!

[stainesbloke]

i like the outlook this morning... plenty of mild enough days on offer, i likes my early mild   and the best thing is that pressure will be high enough across southern regions to keep the worst of the rain well north...

Agree, nice to see 'boring' high pressure sat near or over the South for a while. Have plenty of outdoor work to be getting on with and endless zonality/gales/rain are not very welcome. No fun sat indoors watching lashing rain, that's boring to me.

[Summer Sun]

So just as winter ends and spring arrives GFS shows it turning colder if only something like the below actually happened say a month or 2 back.......

 

Edited February 14, 2015 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i like the outlook this morning... plenty of mild enough days on offer, i likes my early mild   and the best thing is that pressure will be high enough across southern regions to keep the worst of the rain well north...

 

 

fine for you in derby, but monday is going to be a shocker for members in the west and southwest, I will look forward to mondays deluge ending, and good riddance to it

[Daniel*]

So just as winter ends and spring arrives GFS shows it turning colder if only something like the below actually happened say a month or 2 back.......

 

BANK them charts are very good it would actually provide decent opportunities for widespread snow, the only burden is the sun is stronger, meaning it will not stick around when the sun beats down, I still take early March as winter. It would still be pretty good the best thus far on inspection, not out the question. IMO ensembles highlight such scenario could happen, March is a interesting ol' month.

[cheese]

If we relied on thunderstorms we would be in peril.

It is good to have a taste of all - you'd surely get bored with the same old weather type?

Not many are dancing & screaming at this time of year, what happened to this country's backbone.

What backbone? We wither when 1cm of snow falls.

 

Besides, I fail to see what having backbone has to do with me not liking rain. Most people don't like rain unless it falls at night. I mean, if you like dreary rain during the day, with cold temps, then good for you, but I like to go outside occasionally.

Edited February 14, 2015 by cheese

[Mapantz]

What backbone? We wither when 1cm of snow falls.

 

Besides, I fail to see what having backbone has to do with me not liking rain. Most people don't like rain unless it falls at night. I mean, if you like dreary rain during the day, with cold temps, then good for you, but I like to go outside occasionally.

 

I manage to get outside in the rain, even work in it.. As i said in a regional thread, my skin is waterproof. lol

 

Before i get a reply of 'good for you' - If folks cannot go out in the rain (whether they like it or not) then we live in a strange world.

[Daniel*]

I manage to get outside in the rain, even work in it.. As i said in a regional thread, my skin is waterproof. lol

Before i get a reply of 'good for you' - If folks cannot go out in the rain (whether they like it or not) then we live in a strange world.

Agreed are we supposed to be nestled in life? my daily activities do not change rain or shine, if it rains eh so what we live next to a big ocean, if we was in the U.S. they would laugh at us. I love the rain blowing in my face call me mad with a brisk wind all it is is water, beats muggy still air. I do not like weeks of deluges, but then again, I do not like weeks of aridity, I like balance. From years ago people were not daunted by snow, it was just a matter of keeping warm, nowadays people look at snow like some sort of monster, OTT tosh.

Edited February 14, 2015 by Daniel*

[knocker]

Agreed are we supposed to be nestled in life? my daily activities do not change rain or shine, if it rains eh so what we live next to a big ocean, if we was in the U.S. they would laugh at us. I love the rain blowing in my face call me mad with a brisk wind all it is is water, beats muggy still air. I do not like weeks of deluges, but then again, I do not like weeks of aridity, I like balance. From years ago people were not daunted by snow, it was just a matter of keeping warm, nowadays people look at snow like some sort of monster, OTT tosh.

 

That was easier said than done in 62-63. And I was definitely daunted.

[Milhouse]

A fairly pleasant outlook to come, one that is pleasing to me thats for sure. a couple of mild sectors set to cross the country in the next 10 days and temps look like staying on the positive side of average throughout.

[Daniel*]

That was easier said than done in 62-63. And I was definitely daunted.

I was talking more about the surplus 1cm I imagine if it happened if there was any recurrence in this age many would blackout, life still went on although slowly, after the war people become more strong willed, I do not have first hand experience? 62/63 will be repeated one day in severity, I'm confident. Hopefully I live to experience it when it comes, in my lifetime. The thing with our weather is you never know how the following winter can differ from the one before. A fraction of the US cold would be good enough for me, nothing mental.

[cheese]

I manage to get outside in the rain, even work in it.. As i said in a regional thread, my skin is waterproof. lol

 

Before i get a reply of 'good for you' - If folks cannot go out in the rain (whether they like it or not) then we live in a strange world.

I can go out in the rain, but I certainly don't like to, nor do I want to. If I wake up on a dreary Monday morning and open my curtains to see it pouring with rain, I would rather stay in bed, but unfortunately that isn't an option as I have to work, and I certainly don't envy you if you have to work outside while it's raining.

 

Like the majority of people, I don't appreciate getting wet, unless it's a) in the shower, b) while swimming or c) in a jacuzzi. Rain is simply an unpopular weather phenomenon that most people would happily forgo if it wasn't necessary to sustain crops and replenish reservoirs. I like variety in weather, but drawn-out rain is not something I like. I love thunderstorms, and torrential downpours, but all-day rain events are a big no-no.

Edited February 14, 2015 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

fine for you in derby, but monday is going to be a shocker for members in the west and southwest, I will look forward to mondays deluge ending, and good riddance to it

 

we i was referring to the runs as a whole, but will monday be a 'deluge'?... or just a grey damp persistent rain for some.

anyway, today its looking abit different, with lower hights to our southern latitude, so more mobility and larger rainfall totalls are likely? (but no washout flood thing).

[Chief Wiggam]

100% blue sky, Sun's heat solid and no wind.....this winter is getting better!

[Eugene]

The coldest spell of winter has passed, warming trend from here on in, all very normal though.

[knocker]

 

Polar vortex

The UKMO model this morning suggests that it may not flatten out.The t144 chart screams north Atlantic ridging 

and a much more meridonal pattern. Something to watch perhaps.

 

Are you sure you are not mistaking those screams with the agonising death throes of winter?

[Summer Sun]

After such a calm month this would liven things up a bit.....