Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[dec10snow]

Snowless?? The met office summary detailed snow events in the south west and southern Wales

I can't speak for bristle boy, but I know that I only experienced a couple of flurries, and that's it... Certainly no laying snow!

The channel Islands nicked our only main chance which was a channel low!

Edited February 4, 2015 by dec10snow

[mushymanrob]

How winter is over comments can be summised is beyond me when all the more learned on these sites including input from the Met and the hundreds of charts posted have never totally accurately predicted any outcome beyond 6 or 7 days.So to assume nothing of interest is going to happen over the next 2 weeks is a bit of a contradiction.

 

because we are heading for an anticyclonic spell, and all indications are that itll not be a HLB high (which is what would be required for a decent, proper cold spell), so its not looking like in all probabilities that in the next two weeks anything exciting will emerge. and i think the 'learned' would agree with that, in fact john holmes said as much yesterday. there might be no deep cold on offering, but theres no return to mild atlantic either.

the point is, when we get anticyclonic spells, we/they can predict beyond 6-7 days with a higher degree of certainty, because that nature of these situations is one that doesnt change very rapidly and often takes several attempts to breakdown. whilst its not certain, id suggest its likely by some margin of safety.

[igloo]

well the cloud is starting to roll in here now and more than likely it will be another fortnight before this area gets to see the sun again with this HP starting to sit on top of us to be honest its been a normal type winter here 20 days of lying snow so far and quite a bit lying now but it does look grim for some of yous in the southern areas it could well be another year of nothing on the ground again

Edited February 4, 2015 by igloo

[PolarWarsaw]

...and the fact it's 4th Feb....??

 

Yeah but Spring is here and winter is over now that we are through January and synoptics of 1947 are showing their face...remember!

 

It's cold in the UK quite frequently until the middle or end of April, any talk of spring, winter is over, it's warm..bla bla...summer is coming is fruitless conjecture at this stage. Always has been, always will be. We are in the core of winter months and it's very cold outside currently and has been on/off since Christmas time. On to the models, things look very settled at the moment, very boring, but very dry which will allow people get outside in whatever sun we get. I hope it's a gloomy high to be honest, I'd prefer it to be cloud, dark and bitter. High pressure and sunshine are from June - August. No place for them as we speak. 

[Jason M]

The trend is for HP to move east but also to build from the SW. So right at the end of the run, (this is quite pointless really) we have Pm air trying to stick it's nose in. Dissecting each run is not at the moment going to change the overall pattern.

Chart weatherbell

Odd that you post on the model thread about it being pointless dissecting the models.

Also,despite my general awesomeness even I don't claim to be able to change the pattern.

I'm not so sure your prognosis will come to pass, but we will find out in due course.

[Bristawl Si]

I can't speak for bristle boy, but I know that I only experienced a couple of flurries, and that's it... Certainly no laying snow!

The channel Islands nicked our only main chance which was a channel low!

Yes you are correct.

[Richard2901]

The high pressure looks awful. First of all it will be to the west allowing Atlantic gunk to spew over the top of it and down the eastern side of the country, reminiscent of the repellant second half of June last year.

 

When it moves further south/east it should allow a westerly flow so will be brighter here but still too breezy for frost. So little or no frost likely here over the next 7-10 days. This is dire for a winter month. Just awful 

 

2014/15 has been another lamentable winter. Not as bad as 06/07, 07/08, 11/12 and 13/14 for snow but worse than all of them for frost except last winter.

[knocker]

Odd that you post on the model thread about it being pointless dissecting the models.

Also,despite my general awesomeness even I don't claim to be able to change the pattern.

I'm not so sure your prognosis will come to pass, but we will find out in due course.

 

It's actually very odd that misquoting me is turning into an art form. What I said was this:

 

 

The trend is for HP to move east but also to build from the SW. So right at the end of the run, (this is quite pointless really) we have Pm air trying to stick it's nose in. Dissecting each run is not at the moment going to change the overall pattern.

 

I said each run and i made no prognosis just a straightforward interpretation of what the GFS is saying. And I'm quite sure it won't come to pass.

Edited February 4, 2015 by knocker

[TonyH]

 

The high pressure looks awful. First of all it will be to the west allowing Atlantic gunk to spew over the top of it and down the eastern side of the country, reminiscent of the repellant second half of June last year.

 

When it moves further south/east it should allow a westerly flow so will be brighter here but still too breezy for frost. So little or no frost likely here over the next 7-10 days. This is dire for a winter month. Just awful 

 

2014/15 has been another lamentable winter. Not as bad as 06/07, 07/08, 11/12 and 13/14 for snow but worse than all of them for frost except last winter.

 

Well at least Aberdeen was the sunniest place in the UK January so its not all doom and gloom up there, funny how you dont mention that!

Edited February 4, 2015 by TonyH

[TonyH]

Well there are other forums you can join TonyH. You don't have to come here.

Not that drastic MPG I will take a lower profile, my main forum is UKWW now but I still feel duty bound to post my daily/ monthly summaries here as I know some appreciate them

...Besides I am coming up to my 10, 000th post :O

Edited February 4, 2015 by TonyH

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Models for weekend look like the little mild spell in Dec 2010, which is forgotten really, 9th-16th, cannot see the same result here though with the high

[summer blizzard]

Small variation tonight, we get some good thickness values that would probably amount to warm maxima..

 

[Interitus]

its so typical, we get cold weather with just the right dew points ...and there is no precipitation around just dry air mass.

 

Maybe that's not as coincidental as you imagine.

[knocker]

Whow! Kitten seeing snow for the first time.

 

[knocker]

I notice in the other thread Snowking mentioned "And as we enter the next solar minimum over the next 5-8 years, and the likely resultant increase in split jet scenarios that is usually associated with this, you suspect the problem may only get worse yet"

 

In this context I think Dr Jen.Francis is worth a quick look although it mast be stressed this still an area of active research.

 

[Hotspur62]

Just listened to the whole article. Very interesting Knocker. Thanks for sharing with us.

[Buzz]

It's so quiet in the model forums today. Just goes to show that most people here aren't really interested in the weather UNLESS it's showing some kind of extreme.

[mushymanrob]

It's so quiet in the model forums today. Just goes to show that most people here aren't really interested in the weather UNLESS it's showing some kind of extreme.

To a degree, but on the other hand theres not really much to discuss.

[A.J]

It's so quiet in the model forums today. Just goes to show that most people here aren't really interested in the weather UNLESS it's showing some kind of extreme.

to summarize the GFS output for the past 24 hours

 

'High Pressure over the UK giving groundhog day weather for the next 2 weeks'

 

nuff said 

[Harsh Climate]

Apart from a terrific 20 minute snow shower that dropped 1" snow, this cold spell has been pants in my opinion.

 

I would prefer 10c and mild south westerlies to this tbh, 2-4 degrees most days with a little rain/sleet/wet snow that doesn't settle doesn't float my boat   .

 

I suppose I am guilty of waiting for the holy grail (proper greenland or scandinavian high) but unfortunatly these are rare in our climate.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Apart from a terrific 20 minute snow shower that dropped 1" snow, this cold spell has been pants in my opinion.

 

I would prefer 10c and mild south westerlies to this tbh, 2-4 degrees most days with a little rain/sleet/wet snow that doesn't settle doesn't float my boat   .

 

I suppose I am guilty of waiting for the holy grail (proper greenland or scandinavian high) but unfortunatly these are rare in our climate.

heavens above! lucky you

[Bradowl]

to summarize the GFS output for the past 24 hours

 

'High Pressure over the UK giving groundhog day weather for the next 2 weeks'

 

nuff said 

 

That's what they're showing but there's a chance things could change quiet quickly, which way the HP goes is still open to debate, I've a feeling it won't sink south bringing mild winds off Atlantic, it will either pull west allowing another plunge of arctic air or it will drift in to Europe where we could see some very cold weather coming up from south east off continent. 

[mountain shadow]

It's so quiet in the model forums today. Just goes to show that most people here aren't really interested in the weather UNLESS it's showing some kind of extreme.

What's to discuss though? Chasing cloud cover?

Another couple of days of output before we're in Winter is over territory.

[Penrith Snow]

The next two weeks will be Meteorological water boarding, pure torture.

Problem is that a UK high once established can become very stable like a large rock in a stream, winter 91/92 for example was dominated by such conditions.

Isn't it a shame that a Greenland or Iceland high are never as long lasting!

Andy

[Penrith Snow]

It's so quiet in the model forums today. Just goes to show that most people here aren't really interested in the weather UNLESS it's showing some kind of extreme.

No it's not that it's just as you get older you have seen most types of weather repeatedly, heavy rain, gales, fog, frost etc, but these days few of us even those in their 50's have experienced many spells of severe cold and snow.

So it's obvious we would be more interested in something so rare.

I mean how can anyone in the UK be interested in a two week UK high or a strong zonal set up? We have experienced such conditions sooooooo many times, any interest was sucked out by over exposure years ago!!!

Andy