Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snowblizzard]

Oh dear, looks like a pretty boring anticyclonic spell coming-up!

Things just won't click into place for a more severe wintry spell in UK this winter - AGAIN!

Edited February 3, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Bristawl Si]

Borefest approaching.

No reload, no rinse & repeat.

A Winter that supposedly promised so much, but delivered v little (certainly here in the SW anyway)

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Freshwater Isle of Wight a few centimetres of the white stuff, still falling. Not wet mush either. Still all to play for for the rest of the week for something more significant. Happy days â„ï¸ðŸ˜

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Borefest approaching.

No reload, no rinse & repeat.

A Winter that supposedly promised so much, but delivered v little (certainly here in the SW anyway)

 

yeah, its gone tits up, last week, the models were showing snowfest for today, due to trough coming down from the north, now i'm just being forecasted a few light rain showers

[liam300]

I don't see much snow happening with high pressure being dominant for the near future. Also the long term doesn't look very positive as it looks like we have lost all opportunity of an easterly, and have to rely on anything from the north. Sustained cold has not stuck around for long, with typically missing the vital ingredient for anything spectacular.

 

Overall its been a disappointing winter, although I had snow last night (not much) I feel sorry for the guys that had none at all and 4-5c is too warm during the day.

Edited February 3, 2015 by liam300

[Summer Sun]

After last nights hope that ECM would deliver a cold snap Sunday / Monday its all change this morning with the high too close to the UK sending the coldest air into mainland europe

 

    < No 850's available

 

Once the high does build in it could be stubborn so and so to move

Edited February 3, 2015 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

After last nights hope that ECM would deliver a cold snap Sunday / Monday its all change this morning with the high too close to the UK sending the coldest air into mainland europe

 

    < No 850's available

 

Once the high does build in it could be stubborn so and so to move

 

looks a dirty high as well, with cloudy, mildish air coming in from the north, so daytime maxes around 8C mins around 4C (south)

[Hocus Pocus]

Well looking at the benign charts on offer with the high slowing sinking allowing a more W/SW feed in over time I think we can now cast aside the word "potential", unless we are talking about potential spring weather as we head later into the month.

[mushymanrob]

Borefest approaching.

No reload, no rinse & repeat.

A Winter that supposedly promised so much, but delivered v little (certainly here in the SW anyway)

 

saw this and it reminded me of here (substitude 'lies' though for 'ramps')

 

[summer blizzard]

After a wobble last night it does like models have stepped back into line. Perhaps we should now be looking at the precipitation and sunshine records (though it could well start cloudy until it drifts east). 

 

[Dr. Astro]

With respect dr astro, posting notably unreliable temp prediction charts for TEN days time as proof the high will be cold, is pretty unlike you sir. Theres huge uncertainty as to the position and orientation of the high. Plus no one has yet made a scienced based post as to why this high will be a cold clear high as imho its got cloudy written all over it with a circulation off the atlantic.

 

Your right. I was trying to balance out the original post, finger jerk reactions ! It's the MOD thread, making me insane.   

[igloo]

its looking like at least 10 days of cloud very little frost no wind with temps averaging 7c and drizzle to the far NW the SE may get lucky with at least some breaks in the cloud but otherwise everyone else its plain old nothing weather the falks who are suggesting clear skys and hard frosts well never in my many years have i seen a HP over us or to the west bring anythine other than cloud at this time of year

Edited February 3, 2015 by igloo

[I remember Atlantic 252]

its looking like at least 10 days of cloud very little frost no wind with temps averaging 7c and drizzle to the far NW the SE may get lucky with at least some breaks in the cloud but otherwise everyone else its plain old nothing weather the falks who are suggesting clear skys and hard frosts well never in my many years have i seen a HP over us or to the west bring anythine other than cloud at this time of year

 

Yes the high is wrongly placed for a clean high, for that need the high to the NE, dirty high, some places could see many days on the trot without sunshine

[igloo]

might as well be the first to say it but winter looks to be all over if this evenings ECM is on the mark in the later stages its as flat as a pancake from canada to siberia

Edited February 3, 2015 by igloo

[Long haul to mild]

might as well be the first to say it but winter looks to be all over if this evenings ECM is on the mark in the later stages its as flat as a pancake from canada to siberia

 

Not the first; some people on here have been saying winter's over since December!! 

 

Admittedly the models seem to have only boring anticyclonic gloom or zonal dross on offer tonight but it's still only the 3rd Feb, and considering there's been some memorable snowfalls in late Feb and March in the past, I think it's too early to be writing the epitaph yet.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[Continental Climate]

Not the first; some people on here have been saying winter's over since December!! 

 

Admittedly the models seem to have only boring anticyclonic gloom or zonal dross on offer tonight but it's still only the 3rd Feb, and considering there's been some memorable snowfalls in late Feb and March in the past, I think it's too early to be writing the epitaph yet.

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

[492]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

Its freezing out there and looks to get even colder over next few days.

[Troubleatmill]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

I forecast winter to last and last and last until at least spring

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

[John Badrick]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

MODs this post should surely be put in the MOANS thread!!!! We're it belongs

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Could someone explain what "utter pap" is please? Is this some sort of new model I need to look out for!?!

[Long haul to mild]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

Believe me you won't find me arguing about how awful the cold spells have been IMBY but it's been OK for some people and it isn't over yet, despite an uninteresting model prognosis. Therefore any posters stating that the winter was over in December can hardly claim much credit.

 

Anyway, back on topic, I have succeeded in finding a good chart. Step forward, from the GEFS at T360, member 13!

 

 

 

Wow, that was hard work digging that one out.........

Edited February 3, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[Bristawl Si]

I see people are wheeling out the "March can be cold - remember 2013".

And i've been on this planet 53yrs plus and certainly for down these parts March rarely delivers.

Yes we've had the odd snowfall but not many noteworthy.

[Catacol]

Next 10 days looking poor for any precipitation at all.

 

We have one small window left - last 2 weeks of Feb. Once March arrives it is hard for the south to see anything meaningful.

 

EC32 reports are encouraging.... but it has been a winter of let downs and one I suspect that those in the south will want to forget.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Next 10 days looking poor for any precipitation at all.

 

We have one small window left - last 2 weeks of Feb. Once March arrives it is hard for the south to see anything meaningful.

 

EC32 reports are encouraging.... but it has been a winter of let downs and one I suspect that those in the south will want to forget.

 

certainly has, todays countrywide snowfest went completely tits up, GFS, most models and bbc had trough moving down from the north around Friday last week, just have a feeling it's going to be a winter when everything goes tits up