Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Successive runs agreeing, noaa anomaly charts (most accurate when in consistent agreement, which they are) , think its reasonable to describe it as starting to firm up..

And fi on the 12z is pure heaven for me! Mild and pretty dry.

Of course i know its likely to go pear shaped, but if coldies can salavate at fi prospects then so can i!

Edited January 30, 2015 by mushymanrob

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So the Beeb/metO tell us colder weather than today comes back over the weekend yet London's and SE temp remains at 6c for next 3 days same as today......eh? 

 

BFTP

Edited January 30, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[summer blizzard]

"Firm up"!?

10 days away....right....

To be honest Mushy i'm pretty fed up with the pretend cold and no snow down here (imby) and if there's no decent cold and snow on offer by mid-Feb i'd rather see an early warm Spring.

But cant see how model runs for 10 days away can be viewed as firming up.

 

GFS has had a consistent FI signal for pressure being close to the UK for most of the past 5 days. The only question has been whether it would be the Russian High extending west, pressure building over Europe (as seen past day 10 on the 12z) or whether it would an Azores High south west of the UK (looks more likely now). 

[summer blizzard]

Setup is not a bad one if it sticks around and stays clear of Europe for the east..

 

[BARRY]

BBC spotlight forecast showing 3c as maximum on Monday / Tuesday

[SE Blizzards]

Rtavn2402.gif

starting to firm up

 

Interesting to note that the chart you posted of the GFS 12Z Op at Day 10 was a wild mild outlier. It only had support from the control. Most of the other GEFS members were significantly colder, with the mean not rising above -4 until the 13th Feb. That's 2 long weeks away.

 

 

 

 

So i wouldn't be getting too excited just yet over the prospects of a return to milder conditions at Day 10 as clearly there is nowhere near enough evidence (as of yet) for this to happen.

Edited January 30, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Bristawl Si]

It's not even that cold down here. Temp today reached 8c.

When daytime temp is only 2 or 3c for a number of days in a row then that's a cold snap; longer than a few days call it a cold spell.

We (imby) havent had a proper cold spell this Winter.

Plus, we're virtually snowless.

[Nath]

Just for giggles whilst waiting to see a snowflake this cold spell, model terms and real meanings:  Feel free to add

 

Set in stone = will definitely not happen

More runs needed = dodgy stomach

Bin this run = Likely to verify

[Bristawl Si]

Ok Nath - here's mine:

Favourable background signals = Should happen but actually doesnt

Nailed on = the complete opposite actually happens

It's coming = well...at some point it will

[sorepaw1]

Interesting to note the North sea is temp is at 7.oc. So any North sea showers will fall as sleet and rain near east facing coasts, I haven't read a post yet mentioning this, the showers as they move inland will turn more to snow,

This isn't a moan just an observation.

Edited January 30, 2015 by sorepaw1

[knocker]

Just for giggles whilst waiting to see a snowflake this cold spell, model terms and real meanings:  Feel free to add

 

Set in stone = will definitely not happen

More runs needed = dodgy stomach

Bin this run = Likely to verify

 

I'm inclined towards:

 

Bin this run = indicating warm spell

[mushymanrob]

Interesting to note that the chart you posted of the GFS 12Z Op at Day 10 was a wild mild outlier. It only had support from the control. Most of the other GEFS members were significantly colder, with the mean not rising above -4 until the 13th Feb. That's 2 long weeks away.

 

 

 

A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it?

It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.

 

So i wouldn't be getting too excited just yet over the prospects of a return to milder conditions at Day 10 as clearly there is nowhere near enough evidence (as of yet) for this to happen.

[mushymanrob]

 

Interesting to note that the chart you posted of the GFS 12Z Op at Day 10 was a wild mild outlier. It only had support from the control. Most of the other GEFS members were significantly colder, with the mean not rising above -4 until the 13th Feb. That's 2 long weeks away.

 

 

 

A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it?

It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.

 

So i wouldn't be getting too excited just yet over the prospects of a return to milder conditions at Day 10 as clearly there is nowhere near enough evidence (as of yet) for this to happen.

 

 

dont know why this happened but my reply should be here

 

A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it?

It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2015 by mushymanrob

[SE Blizzards]

dont know why this happened but my reply should be here

 

A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it?

It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.

 

 

 

Sorry mushy, i should of made myself clearer. I meant it is a wild outlier compared to most of it's own 12Z suite (GEFS)

Edited January 30, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[mushymanrob]

Sorry mushy, i should of made myself clearer. I meant it is a wild outlier compared to most of it's own 12Z suite (GEFS)

 

fair play

 

but as i mentioned its not strictly an outlier as it has support on its evolution upto t240. both the gfs 00z, 06z and 12z plus the ecm 00z and 12z agree as to the evolution upto t240, the mild chart i posted .

ok theres loads of time for this to change, its far from nailed, but its what the current outputs suggest.

[SE Blizzards]

fair play

 

but as i mentioned its not strictly an outlier as it has support on its evolution upto t240. both the gfs 00z, 06z and 12z plus the ecm 00z and 12z agree as to the evolution upto t240, the mild chart i posted .

ok theres loads of time for this to change, its far from nailed, but its what the current outputs suggest.

 

Hmm, charts at t240 are all thwart with danger whether they show cold, mild or whatever, and i'm sure you of all people know that. In fact i'm struggling to remember when the last time an op chart at T240 actually verified? 

 

Cold can be a bugger to shift once it's in and i suspect some of the op runs are being a tad progressive in shifting the cold. But of course that is only my opinion, and time will as ever tell 

Edited January 30, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Jax]

Best post I have seen in ages regards to the MOD thread

 

Snow_Fan_Man, on 29 Jan 2015 - 15:35, said:

I came here expecting some discussion about the models and all i see is people whinging. There wasn't any of this nonsense back in my days on Net-Weather. It's a model discussion thread, people should be discussing the models without any bias towards warm or cold in the model discussion threads - discuss facts and projections - not sure why there has to be a team hot and team cold competing when we should be simply 'reading' the charts and giving thoughts and insight.

[Hocus Pocus]

Will there ever be a day during the winter months when the word Easterly isn't mentioned in the MOD thread.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Theresnoway]

Good evening all,

As someone who has been on this site for 9 years, I would like to share some of the wisdom I have learned. I do hope this will improve your enjoyment of this forum, because at times it can be the most frustrating place in the world, at other times, there is not a better place to learn about weather. But you need to be able to identify what is good and what is not! I hope the below aids you in that process.

1. Just because someone has made lots of posts, that does not mean they know lots. Passed experience has taught me, some of them talk complete rubbish.

2. Learn who the valued contributors are and do not waist too much time reading other posts, you will make much better use of you time.

3. Even if you are a cold weather fan, also follow the thread occasionally in the summer, it will help you understand better who the real unbiased posters are.

4. Accept the fact the majority of posters, no matter how good at reading the models, have a preference for cold weather

5. Understand that if somebody is not a cold,weather fan, they probably demonstrate a warm bias

6. There are few posters who give a truly balanced view, but to name a few.... Nick Sussex, Nick F, Tamarra, and Gibby.

7. Just because someone is confident in what they are saying does not make then right

8. Anything past 5 days when talking about specifics is pure speculation, look how much the Met Office forecast can change, even for day 5

9. Learn who to trust and concentrate on those posts

10. Do not take it too seriously

11. Post charts to help articulate your point

12. If you do not know, do not pretend, say and learn

13. Ever year has buzz words, each one a new, do not get too caught up in these

14. Not everybody sees the world the same way you do! Have empathy!

15. Not every run is correct, the trend is your friend

16. Do not pay too much attention to snow risk or precipitation charts!

17. Whatever people say, the Met Office do know what they are talking about (better then most)

18. Twitter is a great place to follow some knowledgeable people, @MattHugo81 springs to mind

19. Generally people like to look at the period where the models are uncertain, that is half the fun

20. It is only weather, there are more important things in life (although, not many!)

Enjoy, it really is a great forum, if you know what to believe and what to not. If you believe every thing you read, you will, soon become disenchanted!

Hope that helps

David

Edited January 30, 2015 by Theresnoway

[Love Snow]

I'm no expert but with the Usa getting cold again this will only fire up the jet. I can only see this cold spell ending one way after this happens,Think Ian f summed up my fears earlier today.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Love Snow

[Theresnoway]

I'm no expert but with the Usa getting cold again this will only fire up the jet. I can only see this cold spell ending one way after this happens,Think Ian f summed up my fears earlier today.

You could not be more right.... This cold spell will end only one way, it will get warmer!

I am no expert either. Could you explain why the "USA getting cold again" means the jet will fire up?

Thanks

[John Badrick]

Considering the Synoptics this winter, I feel many parts (roughly Midlands northwards) have got as much out of it as possible snowfall wise.

Moving forwards, it looks like cold will remain for another week but I think snowfall will be limited unless the high manages to squeeze further northwardS - possible but not the most likely option.

Following that an easing of the cold looks likely in the run up to mid February - no sign of a mild period though and there clearly seems to be the chance of more wintry potential at times with repeating patterns.

Unfortunately I just cannot see a true deep cold easterly setting up this winter

But it's like you have pleasure in showing people the break down in winter Synoptics, milder weather and less snowy outcomes in the models....it's weird we don't get excited and revel in showing colder, rainy outcomes in the models during the summer season. I really don't understand your train of thought!!

[mushymanrob]

Hmm, charts at t240 are all thwart with danger whether they show cold, mild or whatever, and i'm sure you of all people know that. In fact i'm struggling to remember when the last time an op chart at T240 actually verified? 

 

Cold can be a bugger to shift once it's in and i suspect some of the op runs are being a tad progressive in shifting the cold. But of course that is only my opinion, and time will as ever tell 

 

fair comment sir... i wouldnt be posting those charts though if there wasnt cross model consistency, plus the noaa support. i think the timing might be in doubt, (hence agreeing with your last line )its looking like its pushed back abit this morning.  plus it might not evolve exactly as is currently predicted. the anomaly charts do suggest a more northwesterly upper flow across the uk, which doesnt suggest mild southwesterlies,,,but... with the high centred close to our southwest itll be a northwesterly sourced from a more southerly point then recent northwesterlies... tm air instead of pm?...

anyway im only commenting on whats being shown, if it goes pear shaped then so be it! i dont think the cold will be extended too much, and theres a big question over the degree of mildness verifying. i expect something rather average by week 2 of feb, IF its mild then great... if not ill just have to wait.. been here before though many times so its not a big issue with me.

[Peejayem]

But it's like you have pleasure in showing people the break down in winter Synoptics, milder weather and less snowy outcomes in the models....it's weird we don't get excited and revel in showing colder, rainy outcomes in the models during the summer season. I really don't understand your train of thought!!

 

Seems like he's saying he thinks February will be a fairly average month....he may be right, he may be wrong. Not really sure why you're getting so upset with his post.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z ECM PANTS! actually mild from 7th, gfs, gem and jma, much better with a decent E'ly, but experts on here say ECM top model in FI? hope not