Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Dancerwithwings]

Ta Da.jpgMr Blobby's back in town for the snowfest 

Well if Mr blobby wants to have a good dump (snow) over my head i won't mind

[Fitzwis]

Well if Mr blobby wants to have a good dump (snow) over my head i won't mind

 

That would be a bit special, a dump to remember 

[Timmytour]

Looking at the polar NH profile I'd suggest this is a 14 to 21 day cold spell with heavy snow showers cold and ice days galore....A very cold Feb is in the offing!

Saw this on the Model thread as posted by someone who's been a member for just two months.

Now, not to knock his knowledge in any way, but if he has got knowledge, none of it is exhibited in this particular post.

Yet it very quickly got a popular post "star". Now I think it's great that the forum is, as it seems to be, attracting more people than ever, but to me the Model thread seems to be a bit more "dumbed down" than it used to be.

The popular posts used to be the ones that would give informative insight on what the models showed, the trends that might be evolving and the things that could happen that would scupper the modeeling being shown. Yes, in amongst this would sometimes be little amusing quips that earned that status, usualyy fitting in very nicely with the flow of the developing discussion.

Maybe I'm looking back with rose-tinted glasses...but, although there's always been a predominantly cold bias among those visiting the forum, I must admit i find it disappointing to see posts which are prettu much the equivalent of "I think it's going to snow" get a star which some very good analysis and reasoning backing up perhaps somewhat negative thoughts for cold are mocked

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Saw this on the Model thread as posted by someone who's been a member for just two months.

Now, not to knock his knowledge in any way, but if he has got knowledge, none of it is exhibited in this particular post.

Yet it very quickly got a popular post "star". Now I think it's great that the forum is, as it seems to be, attracting more people than ever, but to me the Model thread seems to be a bit more "dumbed down" than it used to be.

The popular posts used to be the ones that would give informative insight on what the models showed, the trends that might be evolving and the things that could happen that would scupper the modeeling being shown. Yes, in amongst this would sometimes be little amusing quips that earned that status, usualyy fitting in very nicely with the flow of the developing discussion.

Maybe I'm looking back with rose-tinted glasses...but, although there's always been a predominantly cold bias among those visiting the forum, I must admit i find it disappointing to see posts which are prettu much the equivalent of "I think it's going to snow" get a star which some very good analysis and reasoning backing up perhaps somewhat negative thoughts for cold are mocked

 

agree, get RID of the like button!

[Dancerwithwings]

And bring in the dislike button, ...likes or dislikes .....Who bloody cares!!! If peeps get likes or even stars for that matter,

most on here don't give a what ever if they get likes, I'm sure most who visit Net Weather find it very informative what ever thread they are reading.

whether your Stephen Hawkings or Dumber & Dumber

[knocker]

Ah the GFS and the MJO

 

Now come on. This is awesome. MJO phase 7 reanalysis and expected GFS ENS mean by 1st Feb. It's like a mirror! pic.twitter.com/KWBHfvS7CY

[stewfox]

Saw this on the Model thread as posted by someone who's been a member for just two months.

Now, not to knock his knowledge in any way, but if he has got knowledge, none of it is exhibited in this particular post.

Yet it very quickly got a popular post "star". Now I think it's great that the forum is, as it seems to be, attracting more people than ever, but to me the Model thread seems to be a bit more "dumbed down" than it used to be.

The popular posts used to be the ones that would give informative insight on what the models showed, the trends that might be evolving and the things that could happen that would scupper the modeeling being shown. Yes, in amongst this would sometimes be little amusing quips that earned that status, usualyy fitting in very nicely with the flow of the developing discussion.

Maybe I'm looking back with rose-tinted glasses...but, although there's always been a predominantly cold bias among those visiting the forum, I must admit i find it disappointing to see posts which are prettu much the equivalent of "I think it's going to snow" get a star which some very good analysis and reasoning backing up perhaps somewhat negative thoughts for cold are mocked

 

Good theory lets try it

 

BOOM BOOM chart attached

[snowblizzard]

^{Good theory lets try it}

 

^{BOOM BOOM chart attached}

 

^{I was only 8 when the 1963 event occurred but I remember it so well.}

^{Snow depth up to my thighs and school milk frozen solid & popping out of the bottle tops!}

^{The severe cold & snow cover seemed to go on for so long!}

^{I don't think we'll ever the like again in UK during my lifetime.}

^Fantastic!

[mushymanrob]

Saw this on the Model thread as posted by someone who's been a member for just two months.

Now, not to knock his knowledge in any way, but if he has got knowledge, none of it is exhibited in this particular post.

Yet it very quickly got a popular post "star". Now I think it's great that the forum is, as it seems to be, attracting more people than ever, but to me the Model thread seems to be a bit more "dumbed down" than it used to be.

The popular posts used to be the ones that would give informative insight on what the models showed, the trends that might be evolving and the things that could happen that would scupper the modeeling being shown. Yes, in amongst this would sometimes be little amusing quips that earned that status, usualyy fitting in very nicely with the flow of the developing discussion.

Maybe I'm looking back with rose-tinted glasses...but, although there's always been a predominantly cold bias among those visiting the forum, I must admit i find it disappointing to see posts which are prettu much the equivalent of "I think it's going to snow" get a star which some very good analysis and reasoning backing up perhaps somewhat negative thoughts for cold are mocked

 

absolutely agree. the 'star of popularity' is no longer a guide to the quality of the post but a comment on whats desired. it doesnt matter how much reasoning, supported pov's , are posted if the post doesnt predict a big freeze then it gets nowhere whilst a glib ramp regarding snow gets over 20 'likes'.

 

agree, get RID of the like button!

 

couldnt agree more.... as its clearly no longer a guide to the quality of a post, its just an ego - massager, encouraging people to court popularity over actual content.

ironically i 'liked' you post!

as for the models..... whilst something cold is most likely to happen in about a weeks time (or less), im not quite buying the ukmo/ecm version. the ecm amplifies things too much recently, the ukmo often backs down. the gfs under plays things abit, but id not be surprised if the gfs's solution is closer to what we will get then the current ecm. 

so some cold, some snow, some disappointment for some (many?) because people are getting carried away yet again with too high expectations on what might happen in a weeks time or so. dont believe the hype... but so many will, only to flood this place again moaning about a rubbish winter...

[Mark Parsons]

absolutely agree. the 'star of popularity' is no longer a guide to the quality of the post but a comment on whats desired. it doesnt matter how much reasoning, supported pov's , are posted if the post doesnt predict a big freeze then it gets nowhere whilst a glib ramp regarding snow gets over 20 'likes'.

 

 

couldnt agree more.... as its clearly no longer a guide to the quality of a post, its just an ego - massager, encouraging people to court popularity over actual content.

ironically i 'liked' you post!

as for the models..... whilst something cold is most likely to happen in about a weeks time (or less), im not quite buying the ukmo/ecm version. the ecm amplifies things too much recently, the ukmo often backs down. the gfs under plays things abit, but id not be surprised if the gfs's solution is closer to what we will get then the current ecm. 

so some cold, some snow, some disappointment for some (many?) because people are getting carried away yet again with too high expectations on what might happen in a weeks time or so. dont believe the hype... but so many will, only to flood this place again moaning about a rubbish winter...

Absolutely, there are huge expectations however is that not what this forum is all about? I find it irritating how the moans and groans appear on the wrong thread, as frustrated as I feel about the models not delivering some winter, I refrain from making comment on it in the MOD thread. The weather will bring us what it will bring and maybe 1% of the time it will deliver some thing interesting,

most of the time we experience little more than what is expected in this part of the world and I mean that country wide i.e. Scotland usually gets some snow where as the Southwest often miss out the snow, of the many winter solutions this one is turning out to be average or NORMAL!!!

[knocker]

The ext EPS anomaly has LP over the pole moving to Hudson and Greenland with the Scandinavian trough a touch east orientated south, the latter later weakening. Thus the surface analysis returns to the low pressure to the NW>NE with the AZ HP to SW influencing once again the UK but in a zonal flow.

Edited January 25, 2015 by knocker

[chionomaniac]

Not a moan this - quite the opposite. There are beginning to emerge quite a few signs that a far more potent cold spell will gather pace by the end of the month. They are not all there yet, but a significant amount are. I suspect that any mild Atlantic reprieve will be short lived. Cautiously excited and sitting on my hands - I wonder if Tamara has spotted them yet? 

 

 

Still not all there yet but looking better every day. Still sitting on my hands, but I feel that this upcoming cold spell will be the best of the winter.....

[robbo88]

Weather warnings for snow already issued for weds/Thursday in the north!

[Bradowl]

Temperatures won't be exceptionally low but the wind chill could make it feel much colder.

[Summer Sun]

Temperatures won't be exceptionally low but the wind chill could make it feel much colder.

 

Agreed

 

 

:cold:

[Eugene]

Any chance us cold weather fans could have our own thread dedicated to cold temperature discussion away from snow fans endlessly arguing over marginal uppers, lowers or whatever you want to call it.

[Timmytour]

G1080 I wasn't at all having a go at you, just expressing an opinion on the particular post, as being representative of others. The point being that irrespective of what your post later on might have gone on to say, you must admit this particular post added no more to the discussion than "i think it's going to be cold for quite a while".

Nothing wrong with that opinion, but the fact it got "voted up" so much makes me think that there's a lot of relative newbies on the thread who see the content of a post tell them what they want to hear and vote it up on that basis.

I can remember a time when such popularity was "earned" through an experience of exposure to a poster's anaylsis and knowledge. Sorry, but in that particular post there's no analysis or knowledge whatsoever, which is not to say you don't exhibit it in other posts. But then again, it wasn't you who voted up your own post anyway!

So I don't doubt you have knowledge....personally I tend to take more account of what others say who've been around a lot longer, not just because I have the experience of how they approach things, but also because I am familiar enough with them now to factor in my opinion of their bias. With all respect however my "dumbed down" comment was not aimed at you, but at those who have joined the forum and whose idea of a good post is not so much a considered opinion on where the models are taking us but one that tells them it's going to snow.

[stewfox]

One thing I have notice is no one uses the 'in depth model thread'. 

 

Would be a good place for the more experience posters to post some detailed analysis of what could happen , without all the 'will it snow or not re IMBY' that seems to be far more frequent this year.

Edited January 25, 2015 by stewfox

[mushymanrob]

Absolutely, there are huge expectations however is that not what this forum is all about? I find it irritating how the moans and groans appear on the wrong thread, as frustrated as I feel about the models not delivering some winter, I refrain from making comment on it in the MOD thread. The weather will bring us what it will bring and maybe 1% of the time it will deliver some thing interesting,

most of the time we experience little more than what is expected in this part of the world and I mean that country wide i.e. Scotland usually gets some snow where as the Southwest often miss out the snow, of the many winter solutions this one is turning out to be average or NORMAL!!!

Indeed, but surely its only worth getting excited when something isnt in fi, but within the reliable? Maybe its because im old, but i refuse to get excited about anything until its nailed.

[Yorlum11]

But then you decide to post it here instead of asking me via pm and get a star like...Thanks only just noticed this post....I think the irony sums it up....Dumbed down charming but thanks for letting me know.

What you failed to mention by way in your dissection of the fact I've been a member ONLY 2 months was I explained why I felt we'd be in for a protracted cold spell further down the thread...Shame you felt the need to pick on my post but never mind.

Certainly didn't think I was harming anyone by posting it deary me.

You were not. Good post!

[cyclonic happiness]

But then you decide to post it here instead of asking me via pm and get a star like...Thanks only just noticed this post....I think the irony sums it up....Dumbed down charming but thanks for letting me know.

What you failed to mention by way in your dissection of the fact I've been a member ONLY 2 months was I explained why I felt we'd be in for a protracted cold spell further down the thread...Shame you felt the need to pick on my post but never mind.

Certainly didn't think I was harming anyone by posting it deary me.

Matey, there are rather more bullies than their should be on a public forum where no meteorological qualifications are needed to join, just enthusiasm.

 

I've been on this board now for a round 8 years now and have noticed it getting worse every year, and not just by the dumb' folk like us.

 

I think people forget that there are 3 model threads on this forum and if you feel the need to get away from the intellectually inferior, then you can go to the 'in depth model' thread.

 

So, basically, don't be bullied into silence and not thinking that your point of view is invalid, there are a lot of folk on here who don't get it right even 50% regardless of how revered they are.

 

chin up matey :-)

[Timmytour]

Matey, there are rather more bullies than their should be on a public forum where no meteorological qualifications are needed to join, just enthusiasm.

 

I've been on this board now for a round 8 years now and have noticed it getting worse every year, and not just by the dumb' folk like us.

 

I think people forget that there are 3 model threads on this forum and if you feel the need to get away from the intellectually inferior, then you can go to the 'in depth model' thread.

 

So, basically, don't be bullied into silence and not thinking that your point of view is invalid, there are a lot of folk on here who don't get it right even 50% regardless of how revered they are.

 

chin up matey :-)

Nice post CH...but please have a look at the two subsequent posts to the one you've quoted which maybe will give you a better context of what was being discussed than your post indicates you currently do  

 

[cyclonic happiness]

Nice post CH...but please have a look at the two subsequent posts to the one you've quoted which maybe will give you a better context of what was being discussed than your post indicates you currently do  

 

I wasn't just referring to that post, it's a general observation.

And that smiley doesn't cover up the patronising comment you made either. 

[Timmytour]

I wasn't just referring to that post, it's a general observation.

And that smiley doesn't cover up the patronising comment you made either.

All I can do is assure you that nothing was intended to be patronising. Not much I can do if you don't accept that.

The context I'm referring to is the one in which GH made the response you quoted. My subsequent post tried to clarify that I was not in fact targeting him in any way and i'm happy to think he now accepts that. I would disagree strongly that there's any "bullying" or "patronising" element to my posts. I was making an observation about a difference I can see on the model forum this winter compared to others

[cyclonic happiness]

All I can do is assure you that nothing was intended to be patronising. Not much I can do if you don't accept that.The context I'm referring to is the one in which GH made the response you quoted. My subsequent post tried to clarify that I was not in fact targeting him in any way and i'm happy to think he now accepts that. I would disagree strongly that there's any "bullying" or "patronising" element to my posts. I was making an observation about a difference I can see on the model forum this winter compared to others

well, not many folk do admit that they might be wrong.