Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[MPG]

Wonder if Steve Murr would like to update his snow map?

[Carl46Wrexham]

This "cold spell" has in reality been pretty half arsed. Yes its been fairly cold, but nothing special whatsoever.

 

Places at elevation in more Northern parts of the UK have done OK at times. For the rest of us, this winter (so far) can be summed up as distinctly underwhelming. Not one single PM shot has delivered anything remotely wintry, even in areas such as mine, which in many winters gone by have done very well indeed from Polar Maritime North Westerlies. This season's versions have been watery let downs, following on from ridiculously mild warm sectors.

 

When I read posts in the Model thread about a return to alternating PM/TM weather, I find it hard to suppress a dismissive tut.

 

Sure its not as poor as last year's joke of a winter, but its still been a poor one for most. Yes there is still February and its statistically the coldest month...and all that, but its impossible to ignore the fact that the clock is ticking....and time is starting to run out for genuine cold weather opportunities, especially the further south in the UK one lives.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Another abomination of a winter

 

Last winter was a 0 out of 10

 

This winter only just beats it 1 out of 10 

 

DREADFUL

As a fan of weather esp extreme weather at that last winter was much better than this one we have had more frosts this year but it stops there it may all change as February still to come and Feb 4/5th 2012 was prob one of the best snow events I've seen here since I've moved to east coast so that could happen again

[Danielvn]

I remember it well. as a child it was brilliant being cut off, not so great for my parents though.  The fact is that no snow event has ever come close to it and as it was over 30 years ago we must be due another event like this at some point.  I just hope it happens before I get to old to stick me bum on sledge and shriek!

The gamblers fallacy, just because we haven't had a stupidly snowy winter recently doesn't make it more likely now.

This "cold spell" has in reality been pretty half arsed. Yes its been fairly cold, but nothing special whatsoever.

 

Places at elevation in more Northern parts of the UK have done OK at times. For the rest of us, this winter (so far) can be summed up as distinctly underwhelming. Not one single PM shot has delivered anything remotely wintry, even in areas such as mine, which in many winters gone by have done very well indeed from Polar Maritime North Westerlies. This season's versions have been watery let downs, following on from ridiculously mild warm sectors.

 

When I read posts in the Model thread about a return to alternating PM/TM weather, I find it hard to suppress a dismissive tut.

 

Sure its not as poor as last year's joke of a winter, but its still been a poor one for most. Yes there is still February and its statistically the coldest month...and all that, but its impossible to ignore the fact that the clock is ticking....and time is starting to run out for genuine cold weather opportunities, especially the further south in the UK one lives.

Carl, have you considered jumping in your car? Drive up to the Denbigh moors and I guarantee you will find lying snow, obviously if you'd gone there a day or two you'd have had more, but there was snow right near you, you just didn't make the effort. IMBY at its best......

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hopefully netweather's forecast is correct for early Feb! wintry start, easterly winds, above avg ppn, south

 

wanna start seeing some good FI charts on GFS soon

[Danielvn]

For anyone in North Wales too lazy to get in their car and drive.......

http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/watch-stunning-footage-north-wales-8474415

[AderynCoch]

I think people need to relax a little , February is the Uks statistically coldest month.....

Ah but by February the sun's rays are like the Death Star's superlaser.

 

Or so would you think judging by some posts.

[Thundery wintry showers]

To be fair, it hasn't been great synoptically for a significant cold spell- a west/north-westerly, and then a sluggish northerly which brought air down from the periphery of the Arctic, which had been modified by getting caught around a depression core.  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

You're so right Microclimate. Nothing in this part of the world has come remotely close since. I measure every fall of snow against the 78 blizzard and even the very best of recent times have failed miserably to get to a stage of even being fit to lace the boots of the Blizzard of 78.

That along with Jan 1987 looked like the best easterlies the UK has possibly ever had, feb 1991 didn't look bad either!

Just getting fed up of winter now. February may see a few surprises, but I really think now it's slowly ebbing away for something epic. The days are getting noticeably longer now too, like march 2013, yes it was epic, but just didn't feel the same due to the longer days and strength of the sun.

[Daniel*]

Easterly triumphs all, been thoroughly disappointing 'cold spell' the models ought to go on the naughty step leading us down the garden path the eventual outcome was a much muted affair.

[dhillcrest]

For anyone in North Wales too lazy to get in their car and drive.......

http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/watch-stunning-footage-north-wales-8474415

 

I live 2 miles away from where that video was shot - seriously, don't bother driving to see it, it was barely a coating. The mountains may have looked very white but there was  a cm at most and it was very short lived. If you wet yourself with excitement that, then I envy you.

Edited January 19, 2015 by dhillcrest

[Danielvn]

I live 2 miles away from where that video was shot - seriously, don't bother driving to see it, it was barely a coating. The mountains may have looked very white but there was  a cm at most and it was very short lived. If you wet yourself with excitement that, then I envy you.

 

I'm not saying it's 10 feet of snow, but it's something. I live near Prestatyn and we had a lot less here. Went over the woodhead pass to Sheffield yesterday and it was gorgeous.

[Jason M]

To be fair, it hasn't been great synoptically for a significant cold spell- a west/north-westerly, and then a sluggish northerly which brought air down from the periphery of the Arctic, which had been modified by getting caught around a depression core.  

 

Indeed. It was the failed northerly that done it!!!

 

Once that failed, it was always going to be disappointing. Even if an easterly verified it would have been just a cool dank stratus fest.  If that had brought some decent arctic air south prospects would have been looking much better.

 

Still time yet, but its shaping into another very disappointing winter. Really, we seem a million miles away from any decent northern height rises and without that were just feeding off scraps.

 

 

Edit: just noticed Fergie has posted in the main thread and it isn't good news tbh.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Jason M

[Paul90]

GAME OVER!!!!!!!

[BristolBaggie]

Steve Murr's snow chart now looks like this

[igloo]

lets hope for a pattern change before spring and summer arrives we have been stuck in this rut for the past 4 months with no sign of any HP taking charge.

[rich1]

Oh I dunno. Seen far worse dec-jan periods

In the north it's been ok. More so Scotland

Though last winter was a very low benchmark. This one though isn't finished though as the pros clearly emphasized

But myself, frost is ok. And seen some bits of snow on 2 mornings in this period. Not memorable but seen more half baked cold hype than this one and still a few days left. Incidentally quite a few ensemble sets indicate lowish 850's. So if not snow, still chillier spells with frosty periods may be on the menu once this spell peters out. No bartletts or such like

[igloo]

Steve Murr's snow chart now looks like this

come up with the wheel barrow and i will give you or whoever wants it i have plenty of the rotten stuff

[lightningsprite]

I'm glad the cold spell is short. ..although I never thought I'd say that!! We can't afford the heating on much atm and I loath being cold...If there were any snow prospects for down here I might feel differently but foe now I'm happy to have 'raging zonality" if it means I don't wake up freezing!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hopefully signs in GFS FI of the 'cold start to Feb' predicted by netweather, deepest FI and gone on next run, but that northerly on Feb 4th is fierce, a true northerly unlike these pathetic attempts of arctic air this winter so far

[lightningsprite]

Ok that's something I've never seen..its just rained all the frost off the trees and ground..I though ooh it's snowing..nope...All the frost is gone...

[lightningsprite]

...and now it's freezing the wet rain...nice..!!

[Nouska]

hopefully signs in GFS FI of the 'cold start to Feb' predicted by netweather, deepest FI and gone on next run, but that northerly on Feb 4th is fierce, a true northerly unlike these pathetic attempts of arctic air this winter so far

 

Yes, indeed! I thought the old bones might get through without the need of multiple layers of thermals.

 

I've got a hunch that the old biddy, Auntie ADA, is planning a visit in February - time for a cold weather inventory.

[mushymanrob]

.... as for 'taking on the met office', mentioned earlier... its a mugs game. im sure we have all done it, i know i have, but the met office nearly always wins making fools out of us who are arrogant enough to think we know better.

[mushymanrob]

GAME OVER!!!!!!!

 

eh?... the 'game' is far from over if you are referring to cold. maybe in 4 weeks if theres nothing showing then it might look likely to be 'over'.