Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Danielvn]

We've got to remember that significant HLB does not happen very often - we had a run of winters recently from 2009-2013 when signficant HLB did occur and we were rather spoilt - it may be some time before we experience such winters again

Sadly people seem to have very short memories. Calling this winter names is quite funny, IT'S WEATHER! CALLING IT NAMES ISN'T GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING....

[BristolBaggie]

Has Mr Murr gone into hiding.? He took on the met office and lost this round.

[DAVID SNOW]

Has Mr Murr gone into hiding.? He took on the met office and lost this round.

 

Its never a fair contest though when the METO have their (secret) models

[The Weather Dragon]

The Met Office have been bang on so far - they give a sensible balanced forecast without bias (to cold !!!) and ramping - if you don't want to be let down and dissapointed your better of following them instead of some of the rampers on here !!!!

[Frosty.]

GFSP 12z looks wintry in FI...BANK

[mushymanrob]

I too have been drawn in by the hype and that's why posts from folk such as Gibby are so important they comment on what the models show. What may occur sometimes makes us believe the models have failed when they have not. Talk of why the met haven't issued why spread weather warnings is clear now they didn't get drawn in by the hype.

Couldnt agree more! And its something to remember.

[mushymanrob]

I thought we where supposed to be locked in zonal till the end of February according to some to a couple of weeks ago???, yet we are currently in a cold spell. Can someone please explain to me why when this is the case are people once again making sweeping statements about the next 6 weeks saying we are locked in zonal again??

I didnt read anyone saying we are locked into zonal until the end of feb. Zonal pattterns are hard to break and do tend to last, so IF we get zonal by next week its not looking good for a cold spell to develop. The chances will not be favourable, but far from impossible.

[stewfox]

Sadly people seem to have very short memories. Calling this winter names is quite funny, IT'S WEATHER! CALLING IT NAMES ISN'T GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING....

 

Makes me feel better ?

 

So who is going to open up the 'thoughts for spring thread' ?

 

 Bet models then start to build a scandi high late Feb and we say 'if only this was early Jan' etc.

[The Weather Dragon]

People - keep your hopes up; even though the outlook is poor it still is only the 19th January. Would we be writing summer off in mid July ? We are eternal optimists

[stewfox]

Has Mr Murr gone into hiding.? He took on the met office and lost this round.

 

These guys put a lot of time and effort in and I appreciate all their efforts

 

However this year we seem to have had a lot of FI cold outcomes considered in detail but dismissed the FI milder scenarios.

 

Anyway only Jan 19 patients is required 

[knocker]

Its never a fair contest though when the METO have their (secret) models

 

Ah but there is a reason for the secrecy  as it allows for a seamless adjustment in the advent of late insights from from the MOD thread.

Edited January 19, 2015 by knocker

[snowblizzard]

The Met Office have been bang on so far - they give a sensible balanced forecast without bias (to cold !!!) and ramping - if you don't want to be let down and dissapointed your better of following them instead of some of the rampers on here !!!!

True, but even they were just beginning to hint about the possibility of a prolonged cold spell with graphics showing the jet diving South into Iberia!

Edited January 19, 2015 by snowblizzard

[JoeShmoe]

The Met Office have been bang on so far - they give a sensible balanced forecast without bias (to cold !!!) and ramping - if you don't want to be let down and dissapointed your better of following them instead of some of the rampers on here !!!!

Indeed, people need to remember the UK MetO are a professional organisation with qualified meteorologists having access to multiple high res data and models. Sites like these are fun for the amateur and enthusiast but it's akin to Man Utd vs Berwick Rangers.

there is a very good reason they don't dish out warnings at T+144 when folks on here are frothing at the mouth, because AT LEAST 90% of the time they don't come off as modelled

[DAVID SNOW]

Indeed, people need to remember the UK MetO are a professional organisation with qualified meteorologists having access to multiple high res data and models. Sites like these are fun for the amateur and enthusiast but it's akin to Man Utd vs Berwick Rangers.

there is a very good reason they don't dish out warnings at T+144 when folks on here are frothing at the mouth, because AT LEAST 90% of the time they don't come off as modelled

 

Rather disingenuous don't you think?

[mcweather]

As the current cold spells looks likely to deliver far less snow than many of us southern snow lovers were hoping.

 

I am trying to think of some crumbs of comfort for the rest of the winter and it has come to me in the form of The best spell of cold and snowy  winter weather I have lived through( Dec 2010 aside). Way back in February 1978 After a week and half of bitterly cold days and nights with the odd snow shower, heavy snow (6ins) fell on my Dorset home from a west country slider on the the night of wed 15th Feb, the following night another west country slider did exactly the same thing again. Then on the sat 18th feb after a bitterly cold and cloudy day an easterly gale started to blow during the evening giving a blizzard which lasted for 30 hours in some place here in the southwest. Drifts of between ten and thirty feet were common place in exposed rural locations. This huge snowfall fell with uppers  of just minus 2°C ( You don't always need minus 5 for heavy prolonged snow).  The winter prior to this had been pretty non descript in southern England not unlike the current affair.

 

The point of all this is that by far and away the best snow storm I have ever lived through came in a cold spell that didn't start until the 8th of February in a winter that is not even in the top 25 coldest of the twentieth century. Hang on in there snow lovers the best snow doesn't always have to come in January.

Edited January 19, 2015 by mcweather

[Skullzrulerz]

So it seems that the slider or next snow event is set to look like a disappointment but it's going to have to come down to nowcasting, however the so called 'mild Westerly return' for the over 9999th time this winter but it will not be the star of the show since it will be going to a pm if not something better.

 

Just be happy we got a cold spell (depending on view) and not a the next set of storms like last year.

[microclimate]

As the current cold spells looks likely to deliver far less snow than many of us southern snow lovers were hoping.

 

I am trying to think of some crumbs of comfort for the rest of the winter and it has come to me in the form of The best spell of cold and snowy  winter weather I have lived through( Dec 2010 aside). Way back in February 1978 After a week and half of bitterly cold days and nights with the odd snow shower, heavy snow (6ins) fell on my Dorset home from a west country slider on the the night of wed 15th Feb, the following night another west country slider did exactly the same thing again. Then on the sat 18th feb after a bitterly cold and cloudy day an easterly gale started to blow during the evening giving a blizzard which lasted for 30 hours in some place here in the southwest. Drifts of between ten and thirty feet were common place in exposed rural locations. This huge snowfall fell with uppers  of just minus 2°C ( You don't always need minus 5 for heavy prolonged snow).  The winter prior to this had been pretty non descript in southern England not unlike the current affair.

 

The point of all this is that by far and away the best snow storm I have ever lived through came in a cold spell that didn't start until the 8th of February in a winter that is not even in the top 25 coldest of the twentieth century. Hang on in there snow lovers the best snow doesn't always have to come in January.

I remember it well. as a child it was brilliant being cut off, not so great for my parents though.  The fact is that no snow event has ever come close to it and as it was over 30 years ago we must be due another event like this at some point.  I just hope it happens before I get to old to stick me bum on sledge and shriek!

[mushymanrob]

People - keep your hopes up; even though the outlook is poor it still is only the 19th January. Would we be writing summer off in mid July ? We are eternal optimists

To a degree, yes.

How often do you get a great august when june and july have been poor with no hot spells? Its very uncommon.

Similarly IF zonality kicks in by feb, the chances of a decent cold spell are pretty remote imho.

Theres no set hard rules in weather prediction, but we do have alotof archive data and that data gives us an idea on whats most likely to occur.

[mcweather]

I remember it well. as a child it was brilliant being cut off, not so great for my parents though.  The fact is that no snow event has ever come close to it and as it was over 30 years ago we must be due another event like this at some point.  I just hope it happens before I get to old to stick me bum on sledge and shriek!

 

You're so right Microclimate. Nothing in this part of the world has come remotely close since. I measure every fall of snow against the 78 blizzard and even the very best of recent times have failed miserably to get to a stage of even being fit to lace the boots of the Blizzard of 78.

Edited January 19, 2015 by mcweather

[Smiler1709]

The Phraise from the film Saw, pretty much sums up our winter and the prospects of any sustained cold...........GAME OVER

[ANYWEATHER]

I think people need to relax a little , February is the Uks statistically coldest month.....

[nick sussex]

I had to laugh this morning , BBC News 24 had a discussion with Matt Taylor about the weather. Good grief I'd understand if it was sub zero with widespread snow but really the current spell of weather is really just bog standard colder than average.

 

Whilst this winter has been better than last its still been underwhelming for many areas, I wonder which BBC reporter will be sent to stand on top of some hill in the north over the next few days!

[legritter]

As the current cold spells looks likely to deliver far less snow than many of us southern snow lovers were hoping.

 

I am trying to think of some crumbs of comfort for the rest of the winter and it has come to me in the form of The best spell of cold and snowy  winter weather I have lived through( Dec 2010 aside). Way back in February 1978 After a week and half of bitterly cold days and nights with the odd snow shower, heavy snow (6ins) fell on my Dorset home from a west country slider on the the night of wed 15th Feb, the following night another west country slider did exactly the same thing again. Then on the sat 18th feb after a bitterly cold and cloudy day an easterly gale started to blow during the evening giving a blizzard which lasted for 30 hours in some place here in the southwest. Drifts of between ten and thirty feet were common place in exposed rural locations. This huge snowfall fell with uppers  of just minus 2°C ( You don't always need minus 5 for heavy prolonged snow).  The winter prior to this had been pretty non descript in southern England not unlike the current affair.

 

The point of all this is that by far and away the best snow storm I have ever lived through came in a cold spell that didn't start until the 8th of February in a winter that is not even in the top 25 coldest of the twentieth century. Hang on in there snow lovers the best snow doesn't always have to come in January.

brilliant post ,i lived in east bristol and we had a very good fall with some drifting ,i can remember it starting about 9pm on a saturday night . On the run up to this west country blizzard i had been a guest of the local weather centre on the run up to this event .it went down to the last wire and even 12 hrs before things were well from certain .places like Gloucester and Swindon only managed a peppering at the most .And not a cold winter generally .the following winter was snowy ,and yes South of the M4 did well on this occasion ,so dont give up hope ,im pretty sure tomorrow and early wednesday could deliver for some ,met office are being very professional over this Synoptic situation and IF needed  can put out warnings to many institutions now on the internet ,a good day for radar and cloud watching tomorrow ,lets hope for some lamp post or security light watching .  

[DAVID SNOW]

The Phraise from the film Saw, pretty much sums up our winter and the prospects of any sustained cold...........GAME OVER

 

 I prefer the other quote from the film " Lets play a game"   Its cold now with February still to come........................

[Paul90]

Another abomination of a winter

 

Last winter was a 0 out of 10

 

This winter only just beats it 1 out of 10 

 

DREADFUL