Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Sara_south_yorks]

Me too. Funniest thing on a screen. 

 

Beats "Mrs browns boys"any day

 

i wouldn't go that far, love mrs browns boys haha

[Frosty_wsm]

Chaos is reigning in the mod thread LOL. Posts being removed left, right and centre. God I love NW in the winter time LOL.

Your not wrong there lol, I feel my ignore list growing too as I really can't be dealing with people who's mood swings are as frequent as the swings in the models when there's a chance of cold in the uk.

[TEITS]

Very irritated by the posts in the model discussion thread.

 

I tried to add some caution yesterday and said the same people ramping will be the same people moaning and this is exactly what has happened.  I read a message this morning saying the severe, prolonged cold spell has downgraded! At no stage was a severe, prolonged cold spell ever indicated. The general trend has been snowfall potential from sliders and only hints of a few snow showers from an E,ly. The models rarely have suggested bitterly cold upper temps from the E except one of two runs.

 

Out of a scale from 1-10 with Jan 1987 being 10 and a N,ly toppler being 1, this potential cold spell has always been a 6 and at times maybe a 7.

[snowblizzard]

I feared the worst once I saw the morning outputs and the model discussion didn't disappoint in terms of drama and grumpiness.

 

In many past easterly fiascos  the backtrack was from cold easterly to crap milder sw'erly so there was no second prize on offer, in this case its gone from easterly to still cold with some snow.

 

Theres no milder temps showing within a reliable timeframe and indeed given the trends with the easterly it might be that the new disrupting energy over the UK produces more snow anyway.

 

The problem with easterlies is that they come in different variations , a mere mention of an easterly seems to be correlated with convective snow showers and ice days but the outputs were having a hard job delivering suitably cold 850's to deliver that.

 

It might be that one does appear further down the line but the same warning needs to be applied, easterlies are the worst to verify and you can only be sure when this is modelled within T96hrs, but depending on synoptics I still like to go for the T72hrs rule.

Nick, even if we had ended up with the Easterly, surely temperatures on the continent are not anywhere near low enough at the moment to support a severe cold spell in UK?

I remember Jan 1987 when the temperatures in Moscow were around -30c Warsaw around -20c and Berlin around -15c!

Edited January 16, 2015 by snowblizzard

[That ECM]

Is it going to snow in Dorset? Well when I say Dorset I mean Bournemouth. Well when I say Bournemouth I mean Mudeford. Well when I say Mudeford I mean sea road. Well when I say sea road I mean number 1. Well when I say number 1 I mean number 1a because I really am not bothered about 1 b. Sorry I know this is wrong thread and should be in the model output thread.

[Timmytour]

Very irritated by the posts in the model discussion thread.

 

I tried to add some caution yesterday and said the same people ramping will be the same people moaning and this is exactly what has happened.  I read a message this morning saying the severe, prolonged cold spell has downgraded! At no stage was a severe, prolonged cold spell ever indicated. The general trend has been snowfall potential from sliders and only hints of a few snow showers from an E,ly. The models rarely have suggested bitterly cold upper temps from the E except one of two runs.

 

Out of a scale from 1-10 with Jan 1987 being 10 and a N,ly toppler being 1, this potential cold spell has always been a 6 and at times maybe a 7.

Agree TEITS and I always look at the posts of just a few posters, yourself included, as wheat amongst the chaff. And those posters are not restricted to the ones who only push the prospect of cold.

It's amazing how it seems people can be happier, using your scale, on a mark of 4 having been at 1 the day before, then they are at 6 having been at 7 the day before. But c'est la vie

[TEITS]

Nick, even if we had ended up with the Easterly, surely temperatures on the continent are not anywhere near low enough at the moment to support a severe cold spell in UK?

I remember Jan 1987 when the temperatures in Moscow were around -30c Warsaw around -20c and Berlin around -15c!

Jan 1987 is the bench mark for all E,lys and sadly an E,ly of that severity will always be very rare.

 

What made 1987 so special is the bitterly cold airmass was sat underneath the HP.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870109.gif

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Things are very fluid at the moment in the atmosphere. Take today for example, the BBC had some heavy showers forecast for Surrey this afternoon, when there's nothing but blue sky currently with any showers miles away!

 

For the current cold spell, it will come down to nowcasting as no one has a clue what will happen. Make the most of the cold in the next 10 days or so. Surprise upgrades may or may not happen.

[Dunlop Dave]

Why do people always take charts ten or more days in advance as gospel ?? Just makes them look stupid !! No weather charts should ever go beyond 7 days. To have a two week gfs just seems pointless as charts past day 7 rarely bare fruition!!

[nick sussex]

Nick, even if we had ended up with the Easterly, surely temperatures on the continent are not anywhere near low enough at the moment to support a severe cold spell in UK?

I remember Jan 1987 when the temperatures in Moscow were around -30c Warsaw around -20c and Berlin around -15c!

But this is the problem with expectations and easterlies. We shouldn't always expect the coldest to pop up, for the extreme cold easterly you normally need an injection of Arctic air into the circulation this by way of a chunk of the PV dropping south to the east.

 

You can still get the -10 850 type easterly without that but at some point you need a top up of the deeper cold air. The issue with the easterly suggested in many of the outputs was a poorly orientated high over Scandi so the cold air was being tapped from too far south. You may still end up with the odd colder pool working west but the 5 star easterlies are rare, for more frontal snow of course you just need embedded cold and the 850's don't have to be anywhere near as cold.

 

Often in the model discussion thread  its either black or white with little grey if you know what I mean. Not every easterly will deliver, and nor will all northerlies, every synoptic set up should be treated from a more unique stand point .

[cheese]

We just had heavy snow when only rain was forecast, so let that be a lesson to you all.

 

Edit: and it just started snowing again.

Edited January 16, 2015 by cheese

[Sara_south_yorks]

We just had heavy snow when only rain was forecast, so let that be a lesson to you all.

 

Edit: and it just started snowing again.

 

yes same here too

[mushymanrob]

Jan 1987 is the bench mark for all E,lys and sadly an E,ly of that severity will always be very rare.

 

What made 1987 so special is the bitterly cold airmass was sat underneath the HP.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870109.gif

 

i find you to be a very reasonable 'coldie' dave... always have done, youre spot on with your previous post, as for jan 87...

i remember it well, i remember michael fish saying (pointing to southern scandinavia) " theres some very cold air and its got our name on it". the best thing about 87, is that we had alot of snow, deep snow, but it didnt last long, so there wasnt weeks of slush and ice. perhaps my fav snowfall ever?..

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You no what frustrates me ?! It's when I watch the Beeb forecast and they talk of cold and snow and then show the temps for today, through til Sunday and In large areas of England it's showing 6/7/8c ! For some reason they always over egg the temps , I'm guessing it's city centre temps cause of where they're postioned but it gives the wrong Impression .

Not sure how next wks gonna go , cold for sure , snow for sure , for some , but we have no idea of where , the North is more or less guaranteed at some point , whether that's in the form of showers/troughs/weather fronts nobody knows , probably all 3 . But it's best we all try not get wound up by the day to day differences of the models and look for trends ! Also it's interstinf to note cohens update re the AO to go negative. I feel it's pointless looking at means at t240 because we no cold spell developments can appear in the t168 range and earlier once the mods pick up on a new trend. But be interesting to see where we head toward February!

[Bristawl Si]

Disappointing today really. Whereas 24/48 hrs ago it looked like a week's proper cold spell with almost nationwide chance of snow, now it seems to be cold(ish) with at best a wintry mix, esp down south.

I suppose the models really struggle with these borderline scenarios. That's the best i can say about the various weather prediction models.

[cheese]

You no what frustrates me ?! It's when I watch the Beeb forecast and they talk of cold and snow and then show the temps for today, through til Sunday and In large areas of England it's showing 6/7/8c ! For some reason they always over egg the temps , I'm guessing it's city centre temps cause of where they're postioned but it gives the wrong Impression .

Not sure how next wks gonna go , cold for sure , snow for sure , for some , but we have no idea of where , the North is more or less guaranteed at some point , whether that's in the form of showers/troughs/weather fronts nobody knows , probably all 3 . But it's best we all try not get wound up by the day to day differences of the models and look for trends ! Also it's interstinf to note cohens update re the AO to go negative. I feel it's pointless looking at means at t240 because we no cold spell developments can appear in the t168 range and earlier once the mods pick up on a new trend. But be interesting to see where we head toward February!

I would only use them as a rough guide. They were going for a high of 4C today but in reality the temperature never rose above 3C, and we had heavy snow showers, which is why I am always reluctant to pay too much attention to the BBC or Met forecasts - they are far from gospels. I guess I'm always more inclined to wait and see for myself.

Edited January 16, 2015 by cheese

[Dunlop Dave]

BBC weather on tv shows city temps only. Occasionally they show temps in the countryside. At the mo they are running temps over the 'snow fields'. Accurate temps? Go on 'wunderground' where many imby forecsdters upload weather data.

[stainesbloke]

I've just finished another day of winter resilience training at Heathrow (driving snow ploughs etc) and the latest info they had was there was a 25% chance of a 5-10cm covering overnight Sat into Sun! The runway snow clearance teams have been called in, didn't find out if the teams to clear the stands/jettys were called but if so, there'd be a good chance of snow in London.

[Smiler1709]

Nice shift east on the 12z gfs, this spell is turning into a snap and not before long it will be down to a pop.

[frosty ground]

Afternoon All-

 

Well the 12z GFS was it was great news until the UKMO 120 landed on the desk....

 

I think I will just wait until the 12z tomorrow & keep out of here until then...

 

Great GFS. Poor UKMO... - 120 with zero sliding.

 

S

The 12z GFS looks poor with a large mild sector on the western edge...... If you think the GFS is good because of a weak easterly that will only bring low cloud and snizzle then fine.... otherwise why is it great

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 12z GFS looks poor with a large mild sector on the western edge...... If you think the GFS is good because of a weak easterly that will only bring low cloud and snizzle then fine.... otherwise why is it great

GFS is certainly poor at day 8 with mild southwesterlys pumping up across the UK.

[Bristawl Si]

 

Nice shift east on the 12z gfs, this spell is turning into a snap and not before long it will be down to a pop.

But the big Q is.....

When will it become a crackle?!

Edited January 16, 2015 by Bristle boy

[weirpig]

GFS is certainly poor at day 8 with mild southwesterlys pumping up across the UK.

Day8!  we cant even get consistancy at 120hrs  way to much knee jerk reactions  im gonna take other peoples advice and leave this thread alone for a day or so.

[Mapantz]

sorry maybe off topic, when the easterly failed in dec 2012 gp said it was caused by solar activity incease,look today how quiet the sun is with very little activity ahead i believe this will cause the jet stream to weaken and go south plus the opi and el nino are favouring colder february i do expect blocking to occur often now and will give us cold spell at short notice when models will struggle to know whats happening

Here's how I decipher that.. A "failed Easterly" is one that the models showed on several runs but never came to fruition? So the models "modelled" it wrong? I don't see how increased solar activity caused it to be modelled incorrectly?

I can't remember yesterday, so 2012 is out of the question. But, did the MO ever forecast one for it not to appear? Because if they didn't, then it was just poor output from public charts that sent most people up the garden path.

[snowspotter]

Nice shift east on the 12z gfs, this spell is turning into a snap and not before long it will be down to a pop.

No chance mate a repeat of 1947 is on the cards you wait and see