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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.


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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

Im not a bitter person, but if I dont see a single snowflake for the 2nd winter in a row (after seeing a snowflake+ in the last 40 winters) I might just have to kill a unicorn.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Of course what happens when the UK goes into zonal meltdown? The US goes into the freezer:

 

post-14819-0-08312000-1420185788_thumb.p post-14819-0-24346500-1420185700_thumb.p

 

Around a week of exceptional cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Ah but

 

Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world

 

 

The winter of 2013/2014 had unusual weather in many parts of the world. Here we analyse the cold extremes that were widely reported in North America and the lack of cold extremes in western Europe. We perform a statistical analysis of cold extremes at two representative stations in these areas: Chicago, Illinois and De Bilt, the Netherlands. This shows that the lowest minimum temperature of the winter was not very unusual in Chicago, even in the current warmer climate. Around 1950 it would have been completely normal. The same holds for multi-day cold periods. Only the whole winter temperature was unusual, with a return time larger than 25 years. In the Netherlands the opposite holds: the absence of any cold waves was highly unusual even now, and would have been extremely improbable half-way through the previous century. These results are representative of other stations in the regions. The difference is due to the skewness of the temperature distribution. In both locations, cold extremes are more likely than equally large warm extremes in winter. Severe cold outbreaks and cold winters, like the winter of 2013/2014 in the Great Lakes area, are therefore not evidence against global warming: they will keep on occurring, even if they become less frequent. The absence of cold weather as observed in the Netherlands is a strong signal of a warming trend, as this would have been statistically extremely improbable in the 1950s.

 

http://journals.amet...MS-D-14-00036.1

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Ah but

 

Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world

 

 

http://journals.amet...MS-D-14-00036.1

 

The Big Question!

 

Just off to email Big JoeB to see his thoughts on that one! :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Horrid ECM again. It seems there will basically be no interesting weather before I go back to uni. 

 

As always recently the cold zonality/PM airmass charts downgrade to leave a predominance of mild TM airmasses, but with the lows too far north to provide much active weather for the south at least..

 

One of the most boring Christmas period's weather (speaking of my 12th Dec - 12th Jan uni holiday). Not going to lie, found last year more interesting most of the time.

 

Not one opportunity in this month long period to even drive up on Dartmoor and see any snow (even last year managed a dusting up there lol). At least there were a few sharp frosts recently which easily beat last winters mins.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Another Atlantic oriented winter looks on the cards - not necessarily as a mild as last winter but very little in the way of high level blocking or mid-level come to that. Just wait until the end of March and into April and we'll see the typical scenario of HP over the country bringing mild/warm days or the effects of Scandi blocking being to little too late.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Been snowing here today and in much of Scotland in heavy wintry showers - thunder, hail, snow, winds, sun, rainbows - been a great winter mix today !

 

post-14819-0-81627300-1420203274_thumb.j      ...SHOCK! SNOW IN SCOTLAND.

 

The UKMO annual snow days: post-14819-0-62247700-1420203142_thumb.p

 

Over 6 times as many snow days in Scotland compared to most in the S/SE/SW.

 

So congrats, but as I say, no surprise there.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

I sincerely hope not, but I wonder......Is this a new era of weather in which we find ourselves.

What with the weather going in cycles and such?

 

We had the mild, zonal, 'topplers the only snow' type winters of the 90s/early 00s, then we had the colder winter and cool wet summers from 2007 until 2012, and then something seemed to change.

The March of 2012 was amazing and totally out of sync with what had come before, very odd and the winter dragged its heels well into almost summer that year.

 

But then by 2014 it was followed by truly the most boring period for weather watching that I've ever known in this area.

We chugged through a dull spring, a boring (if nice) summer, with only 1 thunderstorm of note, followed by a boring autumn and until now (this week) a 'non'-winter.

 

What do you guys think, are we in a new phase?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Winters became somewhat colder between approximately 2009-13 and I think you meant March 2013? but yes as a few other posters have mentioned the weather has seemed to have 'flipped' back to the mild/warm state although might be a bit premature to call as this has only occurred since about July 2013.

 

Perhaps we should have a thread 'when will the next colder than average CET month occur'? - I'll go for May.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

from a London / SE point of view winters from 1988/2000 (except  Feb 1991) were shocking. Barely getting a few cm of snow each season and hardly any ice days , very early days but does seem to we may be switching back to those types of winters when considering our lattitude is amazing

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

One thing for sure is that we seem to get fewer extremes/extraordinary events now. It feels like our weather has become more homogenous with less interesting periods lasting a lot longer, funnily enough, as perfectly shown into the depths of FI across the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Incredibly mild looking charts showing up at the end of the high res GFS 12z. Night time mins of 11c next weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

Those are some of the worst charts I've seen in years if your looking for snow! Record Jan Cet could be on the cards if they verify!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Those are some of the worst charts I've seen in years if your looking for snow! Record Jan Cet could be on the cards if they verify!

I have to admit. these charts are exceptionally awful, if you're looking for colder weather. The problem, looking at the ens, there is no fast route out of this zonality that I can see. Of course, a pattern change will emerge. But will it be too late to bring us anything notable!? I think I shall take a break for a week or so. I really do miss my morning walks with the dog when the days would be cold & frosty. it seems like a lifetime ago that those days were in number. Alas.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

I have to admit. these charts are exceptionally awful, if you're looking for colder weather. The problem, looking at the ens, there is no fast route out of this zonality that I can see. Of course, a pattern change will emerge. But will it be too late to bring us anything notable!? I think I shall take a break for a week or so. I really do miss my morning walks with the dog when the days would be cold & frosty. it seems like a lifetime ago that those days were in number. Alas.

 

"At least it will be mild". far easier to forecast and less disruptive(unless you have to build an ark to survive or your house gets blown away) but each to their own.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

attachicon.gifimages_braking news.jpeg      ...SHOCK! SNOW IN SCOTLAND.

 

The UKMO annual snow days: attachicon.gifUK_snow_-_Met_Office.png

 

Over 6 times as many snow days in Scotland compared to most in the S/SE/SW.

 

So congrats, but as I say, no surprise there.

See that white splodge just to the south of the Wash: guess where I live.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Just some of the tweets re the current forecasts:

 

 

 

kyemerkett
@MattHugo81 Somebody should write a song called Forever Autumn...
1/2/15, 7:53 PM

 

 

 

  MattHugo81
With synoptic patterns like this being signalled then I may get very tired of using the words #mild #wet #windy :-/ http://t.co/fGsaqWyUnj
1/2/15, 7:52 PM

 

 

  antmasiello
This +PDO/+NAO winter so far is bringing me right back to childhood...
1/2/15, 7:40 PM

 

 

  TWOweather
12z GFS, GFSP, ECM & GEM t+10 days N/hem profile. All are poor to awful for cold over the UK. http://t.co/7ay9cjgRfy http://t.co/MnlJCMRtTt
1/2/15, 7:31 PM

 

 

 

RyanSaunby
Would analyse the ECM tonight but its mongooseing super dupere
1/2/15, 8:53 PM

 

 

Really no point analyzing the charts tonight. The above sums it up. #CUnextwinter

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

It really is depressing stuff. I was expecting this winter to be better than it has been so far. Whilst i wasn't expecting a 2010 i was at least hopeful of a bit more than  three frosts. I know people will say its only a third over but I think we can quite confidently write off the first 3 weeks of January with that monstrous PV up north. Days are getting longer people and we have nothing on the horizon apart from increasing blowtorch westerlies. If we are to get any cold its gotta be February now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

And to think a few weeks ago Matt H was expecting changes come end Dec/early Jan.....not of the current variety though.

Just shows this forecasting lark aint v easy.

The weather will continue to make fools.....

This Winter so reminds me of early/mid 70s down here. And back then i think we had a run of 6 or 7 mild, virtually snowless winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Matt Hugo wasn't very accurate for the 2012/2013 winter - or another winter. I forget which, but I know that his 'predictions' never actually came to fruition and he relied too heavily on the long-range ECM models which proved inaccurate for that particular time frame.

 

So, I won't instill too much faith into his words, or anything else. I'll just sit around and wait - that way I won't be disappointed if nothing comes up because I won't have expected it to begin with, and, to be honest, the weather isn't that important - it'd be nice to see some snow but it isn't the end of the world if I don't.

Edited by cheese
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