Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Ive been weather watching for forty years, working outside i e a vested interest in what the weather might do. I also love the natural world of which weather is not only part but the backddop to ones life. Its great here in the uk, the seasons, the variety, the skyscapes, love it all....

So from experience of observing patterns i tend to get a hunch as to what is imho likely to lie ahead.

I am prone to making sweeping generalisations based on previous experiences. But i do not think this winters a write off, i dont think jans likely to be a write off, and im mostly a mildy. I believe theres a fair chance of a proper cold spell for more then the current favoured few. Its just a feel im getting, a familiarity to previous winters, its not mild, theres alot of cold about, id be suprised if there wasnt a widespread cold spell before march. Not a classic cold winter, but a winter that produces a cold snowy spell

[hec1]

here comes the snow !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Frosty_wsm]

20th January 1991 : not looking great is it?

 

 

 

Roll forward two and a half weeks to 7th February 1991 - a bit better!!

 

 

My point? Not saying it will happen this year but puts into perspective how things can turn around fairly quickly in the world of weather........

One of the best posts I've read on here today, I have no doubt if this forum was around back then with that first chart showing that they'd be plenty of people writing off the rest of the winter, just like many are doing right now, but look at that second chart just a few weeks later!

It's no wonder the glass half empty, winter's over posts aren't going down too well with some, because it's utterly ridiculous to make such comments based on what the models are showing at present.

[abruzzi spur]

What the bleedin' hell is the model thread about?  Hot, cold, not fair, shut up, my Dad's car is faster, where's my snow, someone told me it would snow, it hasn't snowed, my life is over, blah blah blah.  Maybe those that can't contain their elation/despondency can try to imagine something really cr*p in their lives and then compare that to a lack of snow. I love snow, we drove next to remnants of snow facing north on the high route across the edge of the Mynydd Preseli today.  I have just been walking by the estuary of the Teifi, where overgrown grass is now scattered with frost and the skies are full of stars. I've checked the tide times and in 2 or so hours it'll be low tide again so by 7am the warmer sea pushing up the river might warm the frost for a while but hopefully it will leave it cold, beautiful, jagged under foot.   I can't properly read a chart but I sure as hell can walk outside on a freezing night and that's enough for me.  

Edited December 28, 2014 by abruzzi spur

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What the bleedin' hell is the model thread about?  Hot, cold, not fair, shut up, my Dad's car is faster, where's my snow, someone told me it would snow, it hasn't snowed, my life is over, blah blah blah.  Maybe those that can't contain their elation/despondency can try to imagine something really cr*p in their lives and then compare that to a lack of snow. I love snow, we drove next to remnants of snow facing north on the high route across the edge of the Mynydd Preseli today.  I have just been walking by the estuary of the Teifi, where overgrown grass is now scattered with frost and the skies are full of stars. I've checked the tide times and in 2 or so hours it'll be low tide again so by 7am the warmer sea pushing up the river might warm the frost for a while but hopefully it will leave it cold, beautiful, jagged under foot.   I can't properly read a chart but I sure as hell can walk outside on a freezing night and that's enough for me.  

 

those sort of posts should be in here yeah, the are fine but not in MOD, I post in here as I am no where near technical enough for MOD, i can read charts and know basics, more than the average person, most i know not even heard of GFS etc

[Daniel*]

My first post appears to have been deleted with no reasoning? it was just my honest view I was too harsh but it had to be said, it received quite a few likes so I do not stand alone. I stand by what I said, often people's emotions get in the way and this spills out on all 4 corners of this forum, leaving stains in the MOD thread, which is supposed to be a place of learning, with intellectual discussion regarding how things are going to pan out using whats in front of us, so to speak. I know these posts have been deleted. But some need to be reminded that the MOD thread is the 'repertoire' of the forum let's not spoil that. If you want to remark on how you see things going forward with charts thats fine but one liners saying "Jan is dead cert no cold" does not help anyone at all - before you hit that button please process through your brain, how your post may come across & then hit. Enough moaning, I would like a more cheery forum.

[EmmaF]

My first post appears to have been deleted with no reasoning? it was just my honest view I was too harsh but it had to be said, it received quite a few likes so I do not stand alone. I stand by what I said, often people's emotions get in the way and this spills out on all 4 corners of this forum, leaving stains in the MOD thread, which is supposed to be a place of learning, with intellectual discussion regarding how things are going to pan out using whats in front of us, so to speak. I know these posts have been deleted. But some need to be reminded that the MOD thread is the 'repertoire' of the forum let's not spoil that. If you want to remark on how you see things going forward with charts thats fine but one liners saying "Jan is dead cert no cold" does not help anyone at all - before you hit that button please process through your brain, how your post may come across & then hit. Enough moaning, I would like a more cheery forum.

My posts have also been deleted ???? I wasn't rude to anyone I just wrote what I believe to be true obviously you cant have an opinion on this great forum . I find it slightly annoying that when you post an opinion in the moaning thread and have a moan its deleted . I mentioned no names and people agreed with me !!! Wow really no explanation just delete nice friendly forum really encouraging to see when people state there opinions they just get deleted ... Happy new year

[knocker]

The number of likes is not a good guide. As a general rule of thumb the number of likes is inversely proportional to the quality of the posts and often is an indicator of narcissism that encourages the cult of camp followers.. Exempt from this dictum are of course the quality posts from some posters who need no introduction.

Edited December 29, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

On the subject of cold air spreading south into eastern Europe.

Charts weatherbell.

 

[knocker]

Two things stand out on the ECM ops this morning. The continued dominance of the HP to the SW/SE and low pressure Greenland eastwards. Thus tending to the usual north south split alternating between cold transient ridges and lows swinging eastwards across the north.

[knocker]

I freely admit that the intricacies of the Strat are above my pay grade and i leave to the experts on here but a simple question. If the vortex in ten days time is over Greenland at the 100mb level why should we expect in any change in the tropospheric heights in that area any time soon.?

 

[JoeShmoe]

Personally I get really frustrated by how much people get so irrational with other posters when the models don't show them what they want to see. It can best be likened to the childish tiffs between opposing supporters after a football match when your team loses. I suggest people should chill out it is only the weather and hardly likely to change your life one way or the other. True weather fanatics like weather all year round and not just around Winter. I can appreciate the passion for snow and I as much as the next guy loves nothing better than a good snowfall but I can't believe there's so much over hype on here and elsewhere on something that's as rare as hens teeth in the UK, even in Winter. I think coldies need to consider the following.

1. The prevailing winds in the UK is Westerly and with a mild 4000 miles of water to our West it only spells a heavy bias in favour of one thing..wind and rain

2. The Azores High is very strong this year and continues to thwart any lasting cold to the UK and has incidentally weakened some predicted storm systems this Winter too making them no more than standard wet and breezy spells.

3. I think there is too much over analysis by folks on relatively new Sciences surrounding the Weather eg SSW which even the professionals admit to still being in their infancy of understanding. The main driving forces for the UK's weather is the Jet Stream and the strength and positioning thereof as it's the catalyst for the spawning and development of depressions formed over the Atlantic and the way they subsequently affect the UK. This year the Jet a Stream has been strong and too far North plus along with the aforementioned Azores High being so strong the Low pressures have been positioned unfavourably to the North of the UK and this currently looks like continuing for a good while into January.

Of course weather is a fluid Science constantly changing and no doubt there will be a cold snap or two within what's left of Winter but it would be nice if when it occurs folks were more rational with others when the models that show snow Armageddon dilute into a flurry.

As sure as Spring follows Winter the seasons will continue to throw at us what they will but I'll guarantee that living in a temperate climate as we do the overall conditions for 90% of the time whatever the season will be just that 'temperate'. I just wish that some people on here and elsewhere would be as temperate as the weather.

This ought to be stickied

[Mullet]

[MPG]

The number of likes is not a good guide. As a general rule of thumb the number of likes is inversely proportional to the quality of the posts and often is an indicator of narcissism that encourages the cult of camp followers.. Exempt from this dictum are of course the quality posts from some posters who need no introduction.

? Do you say that because your posts don't get any likes? I remember a mod mentioning this to you before! People may 'like' for many reasons other than their weather preference.

[Wilxy]

What happened to Ian Brown?

[Summer Sun]

What happened to Ian Brown?

 

He's long gone..........

[Bristawl Si]

What happened to Ian Brown?

He's busy keeping the Azores High in its current position!

[Weather-history]

I freely admit that the intricacies of the Strat are above my pay grade and i leave to the experts on here but a simple question. If the vortex in ten days time is over Greenland at the 100mb level why should we expect in any change in the tropospheric heights in that area any time soon.?

The question I am asking, is why not actually ask that question in the relevant thread? That's what that thread is for.

Not sure whether it's a sarcastic rhetorical question or being genuine?

Edited December 29, 2014 by Weather-history

[Stormyking]

What happened to Ian Brown?

Probably wetting himself with his so called christmas pudding ( M era) (it keeps coming up with christmas pudding when i say m era) and no im not a believer of it.  charts like this as hes probably lost for word right now...

 

Edited December 29, 2014 by Stormyking

[knocker]

? Do you say that because your posts don't get any likes? I remember a mod mentioning this to you before! People may 'like' for many reasons other than their weather preference.

 

I must admit the paucity of the adulation that is heaped on others does leave me a little bereft. As for your final comment, that is seriously open to debate when posts such as " a snowfest after Xmas"  immediately heralds a peal of bells from St. Pauls.

Edited December 29, 2014 by knocker

[seaside 60]

What happened to Ian Brown?

Look out for Buxton Codge on here.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

People are complaining about winter being over.  But the last few days has produced lots of winter weather I love!

 

Snow on Boxing Day came down thick and fast.

 

Now yesterday and today have produced unbroken blue sky days.

 

If we cannot have snow, then more of these charts please!

 

Edited December 29, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[seaside 60]

The problem with mild weather in winter is thats its normally cloudy damp depressive weather.

We need more of this lovely sunny cold crisp days like today.

In which it makes everyone feel better. :smiliz34: :smiliz34:
 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

? Do you say that because your posts don't get any likes? I remember a mod mentioning this to you before! People may 'like' for many reasons other than their weather preference.

 

What's this Atlantic252? in sig? we'll see if it's right, most of the south had no snow yet, and unlikely to through Jan

[Snowy L]

I freely admit that the intricacies of the Strat are above my pay grade and i leave to the experts on here but a simple question. If the vortex in ten days time is over Greenland at the 100mb level why should we expect in any change in the tropospheric heights in that area any time soon.?

 

I don't think anyone is expecting heights in that area in the next 2-3 weeks at least. The AO and NAO are expected to surge into high positives in the next few days, most likely the final precusor before an SSW in mid Jan. I think full on zonal will be the way for the next 15 days at least.