Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stainesbloke]

This morning's GFS run is pretty grim 'till the end, looks very similar to charts from Feb this year which gave all the flooding around here. Though as many have said, there are significantly greater chances of disruption to the zonal flow etc. Some nice crisp sunny days this week to look forward to though! Something to smile about 😎

[knocker]

It should perhaps be noted that TEITS has apologised to members for his incorrect forecast after Xmas. Whilst this can only be applauded it is perhaps cause for concern that it will create a precedent causing the thread to become chock a block allowing little room for pertinent analysis.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GEFS ensembles depict a mainly average or slightly above average pattern! Unless we get some help from the Stratosphere soon I don't think we'll get any decent cold spells....

Edited December 28, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover

[Barry12]

WE NEED A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING!

[Wilxy]

When is the GFS having its full upgrade? thought it was meant to happen by now.

[Barry12]

When is the GFS having its full upgrade? thought it was meant to happen by now.

 

The GFS P is the full upgrade I think

[Wilxy]

The GFS P is the full upgrade I think

 

The GFS P is suppose to be replacing the current operational?

[knocker]

Mid January. In the meantime I thought I'd been transported back 12 months to Jan. 2014. Oh my

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes even a channel low there Knock.

[knocker]

Yes just as well it's fairy land PM.

[MP-R]

If I weren't so concerned about how bad January is panning out to be, I would take a few days off model watching and enjoy this more seasonal spell. Just as quickly as cold solutions were dropped, they may come back just as quickly in the next few days (not sure where from mind you). 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Right, I'm writing off January for cold and snow (low levels south only) north will see cold/snow at times, models continually showing low pressure/zonal all the way, no greeny highs etc, not even any fantasy charts occasionally showing in FI, think towards mid Jan the azores high will move closer, meaning more TM air rather than PM (in a way I prefer that as it tends to be drier here,

 

not writing off winter, as Feb is a long way off (and are we not due a decent Feb?), who knows, hope for a weaker Atlantic, and March snow easily possible, April snow unlikely low levels south, but maybe we are due April snow

[hec1]

bring on the hurricane force winds!!!!!!

[Barry12]

What's remotely interesting about strong winds?

[Hocus Pocus]

I have to say I'm not all that enthused at the outlook and talk of SSW and wave activity this and that shows that we're still a long, long way off predicting weather beyond 10 days let alone  seasonal output. Its wise to stick to the MetO short to medium term forecasts and look no further than this IMO.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have to say I'm not all that enthused at the outlook and talk of SSW and wave activity this and that shows that we're still a long, long way off predicting weather beyond 10 days let alone  seasonal output. Its wise to stick to the MetO short to medium term forecasts and look no further than this IMO.

 

iz it my imagination or has this SSW been 10 days away since mid Nov?

 

above post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by hec1 View it anyway? why would I wanna view it? a mildie

Edited December 28, 2014 by Ilovethesnow

[Hocus Pocus]

iz it my imagination or has this SSW been 10 days away since mid Nov?

Yes the words day 10 and beyond have a certain deja vu to them.

[knocker]

In some respects the chase for cold reminds me of Zeno's Paradox, Achilles and the Tortoise.

[Gibby]

Personally I get really frustrated by how much people get so irrational with other posters when the models don't show them what they want to see. It can best be likened to the childish tiffs between opposing supporters after a football match when your team loses. I suggest people should chill out it is only the weather and hardly likely to change your life one way or the other. True weather fanatics like weather all year round and not just around Winter. I can appreciate the passion for snow and I as much as the next guy loves nothing better than a good snowfall but I can't believe there's so much over hype on here and elsewhere on something that's as rare as hens teeth in the UK, even in Winter. I think coldies need to consider the following.

1. The prevailing winds in the UK is Westerly and with a mild 4000 miles of water to our West it only spells a heavy bias in favour of one thing..wind and rain

2. The Azores High is very strong this year and continues to thwart any lasting cold to the UK and has incidentally weakened some predicted storm systems this Winter too making them no more than standard wet and breezy spells.

3. I think there is too much over analysis by folks on relatively new Sciences surrounding the Weather eg SSW which even the professionals admit to still being in their infancy of understanding. The main driving forces for the UK's weather is the Jet Stream and the strength and positioning thereof as it's the catalyst for the spawning and development of depressions formed over the Atlantic and the way they subsequently affect the UK. This year the Jet a Stream has been strong and too far North plus along with the aforementioned Azores High being so strong the Low pressures have been positioned unfavourably to the North of the UK and this currently looks like continuing for a good while into January.

Of course weather is a fluid Science constantly changing and no doubt there will be a cold snap or two within what's left of Winter but it would be nice if when it occurs folks were more rational with others when the models that show snow Armageddon dilute into a flurry.

As sure as Spring follows Winter the seasons will continue to throw at us what they will but I'll guarantee that living in a temperate climate as we do the overall conditions for 90% of the time whatever the season will be just that 'temperate'. I just wish that some people on here and elsewhere would be as temperate as the weather.

[Frosty_wsm]

Hi

Just a quick moan from me as a Newbie . Certain "big name" posters on the Model discussion thread confuse the hell out of me ... One night there ,there giving the talk about how winters coming watch for heights to build and the cold to flood in its coming then bang "nothing" then there not seen for days .

I ain't seen no "big name" posters saying winter was coming, they were discussing what the charts were showing at the time and they were looking good but alas what the models were showing was not the correct solution.

After being in here a while you'll learn what posters are worth listening to, the "big names" wouldn't write a 'winter is coming' post just because of a cold run showing in the models

Speaking of which I hope we see some cold showing up soon in the models, I certainly won't be writing off the rest of winter like some seem to be doing, like someone else in here said recently, it's ludicrous to do that when we have two months of winter left.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Smartie

[Daniel*]

No real need for that was there?

Actually, an increase in TM shots and SW winds is a natural progression from where were projected to be next week. Might not happen though.

I concur with Gibbys, why not play nice?

Perhaps I got a little passionate and for that I apologize for any offence, but with good reason. I like a realist - not a dreamer. I'm sorry it may not be what one may want to here but I think some need to get a grip. Not too long ago we were blowing our trumpets, the tide changed this does not mean it can revert to a more colder solutions. It is rather irritating hearing it from the same person all year round, this is not a dig just my stance, I suggest we all keep a open mind. And not be deterred by what is currently being shown... which will change subtly every single run, which can lead to bigger things. Zonal start I can go with that but to suggest 4 weeks of Atlantic onslaught. Is just a easy game to play really. And if it transpires those then ask for credit, typically UK winter is cool & wet. Those that see possible break in the pattern are those who deserve some credit, it is easy to state the obvious, big things have small beginnings. I'm not a pessimist but I've felt somewhat frustrated in recent days.

[Mr Frost]

Same old guff in the MOD thread - Winter is over, you can write off January, it is not going to be snowing in my back garden so everything will be zonal and mild for the next couple of weeks...

We get the same in Summer when a few members post on June 28 that July will be a write off for any heat.

I am all for an unbiased daily report - Gibby for example.

The annoying posts come from certain members who pretend to be unbiased but really are just down in the dumps about not having seen any cold/hot spells so they take a glass half empty approach, add a sarcastic remark and that's when you get the rubbish.

I have been a member on here since January 2009 and have enjoyed coming on every year to read the MOD thread with a positive attitude after viewing all charts available no matter what they show, never to put anyone on my ignore list and to read every single members post on any certain day but it is becoming difficult nowadays due to the negativity and constant daily mood swings of 5 to 10 people who appear during Summer or Winter with daft posts- sad thing being they are actually grown men.

It has got to the point that I only enjoy reading certain members posts - for new members you will soon figure out who are worth a read and who to quickly skip past...

Edited December 28, 2014 by Mr Frost

[Hocus Pocus]

iz it my imagination or has this SSW been 10 days away since mid Nov?

 

above post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by hec1 View it anyway? why would I wanna view it? a mildie

[hec1]

here comes the snow!!!

[Jason M]

Perhaps I got a little passionate and for that I apologize for any offence, but with good reason. I like a realist - not a dreamer. I'm sorry it may not be what one may want to here but I think some need to get a grip. Not too long ago we were blowing our trumpets, the tide changed this does not mean it can revert to a more colder solutions. It is rather irritating hearing it from the same person all year round, this is not a dig just my stance, I suggest we all keep a open mind. And not be deterred by what is currently being shown... which will change subtly every single run, which can lead to bigger things. Zonal start I can go with that but to suggest 4 weeks of Atlantic onslaught. Is just a easy game to play really. And if it transpires those then ask for credit, typically UK winter is cool & wet. Those that see possible break in the pattern are those who deserve some credit, it is easy to state the obvious, big things have small beginnings. I'm not a pessimist but I've felt somewhat frustrated in recent days.

Worth just remembering though that this is the thread for ramping and moaning. I tend to drop the odd winters over type post in here myself when the mood takes me, precisely because it's not appropriate for the mod thread. For all I know the charts could flip completely in the morning. It wouldn't be the first time by a long way, but having been interested in this for many years I know a bad start point when I see one and right now that's what I'm seeing.

The strat thread is alive to the prospects of big things at the moment and if nothing else it will be interesting to see what wins out, ie whether it be the poor trop set up or the relatively good strat position.