Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Bristawl Si]

Agreed SB.

 

The other week i wrote off the rest of December re any *noteworthy* snow and cold.

Today i'm writing off 1st half of January for the above.

Yes, i'm ignoring this w/e 27th/28th Dec.

[snowblizzard]

Agreed SB.

 

The other week i wrote off the rest of December re any *noteworthy* snow and cold.

Today i'm writing off 1st half of January for the above.

Yes, i'm ignoring this w/e 27th/28th Dec.

Yes, it's difficult to see where any major changes will come from before then.

Perhaps February will be the month when the UK is crippled by freezing temperatures and deep lying snow?

[John Badrick]

Yes, it's difficult to see where any major changes will come from before then.

Perhaps February will be the month when the UK is crippled by freezing temperatures and deep lying snow?

A lot happening in the strat in next 8-10 days, PV taking a bit of a battering, totally different state to what it was this time last year, so we can't really trust what the charts are saying tropospherically, so to write off Jan is very premature and very negative!!!

[sixfootdrifter]

Still massive uncertainty in the models, but there still doesn't look to be any obvious route to a proper cold/snowy set-up for UK! 

I still believe that we will be 'stuck' in this West to East flow TM/PM mild/cool for many weeks to come!

This type of set-up always seems so difficult to shift.

Indications that the PV may become more organised over NE Canada and the absence of any deep cold over NW Europe only makes the situation worse.

Almost 1/3 into the season and I'm fearing the worst for this winter!

Keep the faith buddy.

Big events in winter tend to appear out of the blue anyway. Being relatively rare occurrancies I feel the models have real difficulty predicting them with so little historical information available. Take the two biggies for example 47 /63, they were hardly postcarded that they were coming. Anything can happen and probably will. Law of averages says a big one will occur again, but when is anybodys guess.

Anytime soon would be bonza. lol.

[mushymanrob]

47/63?.... nah, we didnt (or possibly didnt) see them coming because we hadnt the scientific data to predict it. we do now to a large extent, so any major change will i suspect be spotted two weeks ahead. theres nothing to suggest theres going to be a radical shift from the 'usual' westerly influenced regime and ominously there appears to be modelled a large upper vortex west of greenland/baffin.... just like last winter.

most cold winters have given some hint by the end of the year, and nearly all (but 2013) had signes of a wintry spell by late jan. thats only 5 weeks away. apart from 2013 (which was exceptional) ive never known a winter to be average/normal/mild without some cold by feb 1st, to then go on and have a major wintry spell. ok, i dont know what every winter has been like since creation lol, but id suggest that theres  actually that long left for a real cold evolution to take place.

i must also stress that whilst im not a cold lover, i do think we need a decent cold spell in winter, it makes spring that much sweeter and is beneficial to nature. so i would welcome a short sharp freeze.

[Milhouse]

I too think it would be good to see a short freeze with snow as it acts to kill everything off before the rising temperatures and sunlight trigger all the new growth. Some colder days to come with temperatures reaching a couple of degrees above freezing but very little in the way of snow.

[MPG]

Without the MJO moving into a more favourable position we will have trouble gaining a -NAO throughout winter. Therefore I think will be chasing the cold until this changes. The METO are basing their above average winter on this. NAO to stay positive mainly throughout. This is one missing part of the puzzle that needs to change.

[shetland islands]

This is turning out to be a rubbish winter so far. I really hope we all get, at least, some cold and snow. Although not much on the horizon

[Downpour]

sorry old chap i dont agree with you there. 'we' or 'they' certainly do predict the weather more accurately then they did 40-50 years ago. just because we have a turbulent blip currently the rest of the year has been great and reasonably accurate out to two weeks.

and 'seasoned professionals' are here, its just the cold lovers that arent

You have revealed yourself as a mildie today Mushy – we all long suspected it!     

[Hocus Pocus]

I wonder if we still need patience towards the end of January if the models are still showing positive developments for cold towards day 10, just a thought. :w00t:

 

Edited December 23, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Muffelchen]

.... And on this we agree barry! Indeed listen to the real experts because they are unbiased and wont lead you up the garden path.

Mushy,

 

This is the 'moans and ramps' thread and I came here for a moan! I didn't attack anyone nor, God forbid, any particular model. I was just expressing an opinion that I am not happy with the models. No wonder I hardly ever post on the model threads: you get yer head bitten off!

 

Over and out (for this year).

[sandstorm2]

Hi folks, anyone remember a poster called crazysnowman from Lootons, used to post regularly and his posts were an absolute scream. He used to brighten up the dullest day. Wonder what happened to him?

 

Just to add he always found the funny side of everything.

 

Sandstorm2

[snowblizzard]

Keep the faith buddy.

Big events in winter tend to appear out of the blue anyway. Being relatively rare occurrancies I feel the models have real difficulty predicting them with so little historical information available. Take the two biggies for example 47 /63, they were hardly postcarded that they were coming. Anything can happen and probably will. Law of averages says a big one will occur again, but when is anybodys guess.

Anytime soon would be bonza. lol.

Disagree, I think most of the more notable cold/snowy spells have been well forecast in advance especially by the Met Office!

Severe cold spells don't come out of the blue, there has to be a pool of very cold air close to the UK and pattern emerging that will convey the cold air towards and then across the UK.

If the Met Office aren't saying cold is on the way, then it's very unlikely to happen.

Okay, they've occasionally got it wrong in the past, usually when a predicted snow event falls as rain (when warmer air mixes-in) or vice versa (when colder air mixes-in)

Accuracy at T96 hours is pretty good nowadays, but sometimes nobody really knows exactly what mother nature is intending to do, just like now!

And, with global warming & climate change, I don't think we will ever see the likes of 47 or 63 again in our lifetime.

Edited December 24, 2014 by snowblizzard

[mushymanrob]

You have revealed yourself as a mildie today Mushy – we all long suspected it!     

 

where have you been for the last ten years?   ive ALWAYS been known for my liking of mild weather in winter... but.. please note , i do like a good blizzard and i do think that we need a cold snap in winter, a freeze, because im a weather fan and like all weather types.* i dont like cold, but can see the intrinsic beauty in snow, frost, ice.   my fav winter was '81.... snowy over the festive period, mild by feb, i like mild febs (but mainly after a cold jan).

 

Mushy,

 

This is the 'moans and ramps' thread and I came here for a moan! I didn't attack anyone nor, God forbid, any particular model. I was just expressing an opinion that I am not happy with the models. No wonder I hardly ever post on the model threads: you get yer head bitten off!

 

Over and out (for this year).

 

i have no idea why you quoted my post to barry for this reply sir!

 

edit to clarify

* = i dont like being cold, but i dont mind seeing cold.

Edited December 23, 2014 by mushymanrob

[johnholmes]

Hi folks, anyone remember a poster called crazysnowman from Lootons, used to post regularly and his posts were an absolute scream. He used to brighten up the dullest day. Wonder what happened to him?

 

Just to add he always found the funny side of everything.

 

Sandstorm2

 

It was a burst of zany humour, Christmas songs, snow scenes and his nutty expressions. At first he annoyed me but then I got to like him, so now miss him. Anyone know what happened to him?

[sparky1972]

i have a horrible hunch us coldies are going to experience a run of winters where they will be mild and snowless, i so hope im wrong, lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have an awful hunch GFS operational has this right, no cold at all on there, just a standard rain band followed by zonal wind and rain

[minus 9]

Another ecm which will be complety different in the morning. I think all models should only go to 120hrs, would save an awful lot of heartbreak. But then again we wouldn't have much to talk about.

[PLANET THANET]

Hi there

           although on the mod thread they are saying possibly snowy conditions for us in the south east going by some of the models, I have just seen the bbc1 south east weather forecast for the weekend and they are saying very wet, windy and MILD !!!!!! who will be right ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi there

           although on the mod thread they are saying possibly snowy conditions for us in the south east going by some of the models, I have just seen the bbc1 south east weather forecast for the weekend and they are saying very wet, windy and MILD !!!!!! who will be right ?

 

going by GFS then, saturday does look mild, but sunday turning cold

[Banbury]

Looks like deep snow in the SE by Sunday night, from an IMBY point of view these charts are perfect, with the prospect of a full blown easterly in FI the good times are starting

Oh John come off it, DEEP ......................really?  I doubt that very much , of course it depends on what class deep as.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Banbury

[John Snow]

Deep snow ?

Anyway, if you haven't noticed, the difference in the current nwp is that all the interesting stuff is within a reasonable timeframe and it's the boring side showing the potential!

Anything above 3" in my neck of the woods brings the area to a standstill, so while life goes on in say Derby down in London everything super dupere down, and I think from what I have read and my gut instinct South Eastern hills (North and South downs) should have 4" to 6" of lying snow come Monday morning

[Harsh Climate]

Anything above 3" in my neck of the woods brings the area to a standstill, so while life goes on in say Derby down in London everything onionse down, and I think from what I have read and my gut instinct South Eastern hills (North and South downs) should have 4" to 6" of lying snow come Monday morning

 

 

   

 

Give this guy his own show!

Edited December 23, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[Barry12]

I am totally confused by all this model watching now and am totally perplexed by it all, as according to the bbc1 southeast forecast for the weekend and after , we in the southeast will turn very wet , very windy and mild, I am afraid that I cant read the models and rely on others.

 

That is a bit confusing since the models don't show that, apart from the GFS Op, I think the BBC forecast will change in the coming days. Ian Fergusson might be able to explain the Met Office's thoughts later.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Barry95

[Banbury]

Anything above 3" in my neck of the woods brings the area to a standstill, so while life goes on in say Derby down in London everything onionse down, and I think from what I have read and my gut instinct South Eastern hills (North and South downs) should have 4" to 6" of lying snow come Monday morning

That is hardly deep snow 3" is it????  People reading thread will get the wrong idea totally.  Not too sure where you see 15cm of snow coming from JS

Edited December 23, 2014 by Banbury