Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[terrier]

That Met Office outlook is brilliant :w00t:

 

If that outlook is correct we should surely be seeing upgrades in the models over the coming days :smiliz19:

might be good for Scotland cumbria Newcastle etc. rest of us plenty of rain and gales. Not for me thanks.

[gottolovethisweather]

 

Plenty of potential here as the Canadian lobe packs its bags and heads to Scandanavia...

 

So many folk get lost in all the pages of updates over on the MOD thread, that the above has been a persistent signal for the best part of a week now. Still slightly out of grasp, i.e. not yet in the reliable but a definite trend which increases with potency over the Christmas period, post Boxing Day. Something I have been mentioning in my own updates over the past few days in fact.

 

Again for those less experienced model watchers, watch for Stratospshere developments firstly, beginnings of a warming in progress as we speak. Next watch for NH developments over time and only after the general synoptic pattern is nailed can we view things from an IMBY perspective. 

Edited December 19, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[weatherguy]

Absolutely!  Meteorologically speaking, this winter is a completely different story to last.

[hec1]

Good for the North, pretty non descript for the south.

Detail like that will however ebb and flow at this conjecture. Enjoy who, if anyone, that cops it.

  

might be good for Scotland cumbria Newcastle etc. rest of us plenty of rain and gales. Not for me thanks.

but nobody lives down south

[TSNWK]

On my phone on way home.. No updates in the middle of the 12z GFS AND UKMO. Help....

[Daniel*]

Absolutely! Meteorologically speaking, this winter is a completely different story to last.

Regardless of how things are looking hemispherically if we do not get any snow this winter it will rival the last and that was dreadful. IMHO it aint nothing special if only the north get somes snow, let's be honest it does not take much, widespread snow is what distinguishes between the cold and the very cold, down south 'cold' is not good enough we need something "deeper". Not some tame northerly...

Edited December 19, 2014 by Daniel*

[Mapantz]

I cannot believe some people in the mod thread, bypassing, what looks to be a potent low with serious rapid cyclogenesis occurring over the UK.

Obviously, detail is sketchy from this far out but seeing people post charts, and then just commenting on upper temperatures instead, is quite laughable- even if it isn't to your taste.

That looks pretty nasty!

Lots of nice deep snowdrifts with all the strong winds and arctic air, something we were not able to say of the poor recent winters. Another day and what a difference to the mood in here 24 hours ago..I think a major wintery spell is on the way with prolonged longevity once we get through the mild start to next week..then let the good times roll,frost, snow, ice, blizzards, drifting = Heavenly :-)

What about the potential threat of coastal flooding, and disruption from strong winds??

Edited December 19, 2014 by Mapantz

[hec1]

I cannot believe some people in the mod thread, bypassing, what looks to be a potent low with serious rapid cyclogenesis occurring over the UK.

Obviously, detail is sketchy from this far out but seeing people post charts, and then just commenting on upper temperatures instead, is quite laughable- even if it isn't to your taste.

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That looks pretty nasty!

What about the potential threat of coastal flooding, and disruption from strong winds??

it'll be downgraded like always

[Hocus Pocus]

Another day and another set of options on the table but one thing that remains the same is it will turn colder over the Xmas period, how cold, how long and will it snow are all still up for grabs but the from Xmas onwards the outlook is a distinctly wintry one with everything but the kitchen sink thrown in, and even that maybe on the cards for those prone to a North sea storm surge.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Better 12Z's GFS and GFSP, FI still but trend there, then as usual IDO on MOD cherry picks a less cold chart deep FI on the GEM!

 

Xmas day looks cold and dry in the south

Edited December 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To edit personal remark out.

[mushymanrob]

Better 12Z's GFS and GFSP, FI still but trend there, then as usual IDO (bit of a pain) on MOD cherry picks a less cold chart deep FI on the GEM!

 

Xmas day looks cold and dry in the south

Thats unfair. Ido posts unbiasedly all year round, his ccommon sense and level headed contributions prove far more informative and accurate then those ramping up the coldness. And talk about cherry picking charts that suit an agenda... NO ONE does that more then coldies.

[hec1]

lol ecm spoils the hunt for cold again

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thats unfair. Ido posts unbiasedly all year round, his ccommon sense and level headed contributions prove far more informative and accurate then those ramping up the coldness. And talk about cherry picking charts that suit an agenda... NO ONE does that more then coldies.

 

eh? did I say all the time? I just mentioned that 1 chart!

 

I usually stick to GFS, but hope ECM not correct this time

[mushymanrob]

eh? did I say all the time? I just mentioned that 1 chart!

 

I usually stick to GFS, but hope ECM not correct this time

But so what? Why shouldnt he post one chart? Coldies do it all the time. This isnt an issue.

[Timmytour]

A bit mild tonight and i 've come home and opened my bedroom window to let some air in. A great big housefly has entered and is currently buzzing around the ceiling!

Judging by the ECM a few of his mates might be waking up just past Christmas to join him!

[lorenzo]

From the regional thread, some model #madfriday insight.

 

Interesting goings on at the Weather model Xmas night out..

 

ECM Deterministic ignoring the advice of its 51 colleagues who are all clustered at a 'cool' wine bar - decides to head onto another boozer on it's own where it subsequently makes a successful pass at NOGAPS , as a result churns out nonsense all weekend.

 

GFS Parallel spends the evening at the dartboard knocking back the pints in true lad style, bragging how it managed to get all of ECMs useful coding at a recent upgrade and is awaiting a promotion sometime in January.

 

Meanwhile MOGREPS stands at the bar quaffing bond style cocktails with the NASA and FIM models flipping out quips about £100m supercomputers and cunning plans for world domination.

 

GEM has gone home early having come out dressed for a nice summer evening in accordance with it's 850 temp profile.

 

The Chinese model hasn't arrived at the party yet and is expected some time in March.

[Hocus Pocus]

 

From the regional thread, some model #madfriday insight.

 

Interesting goings on at the Weather model Xmas night out..

 

ECM Deterministic ignoring the advice of its 51 colleagues who are all clustered at a 'cool' wine bar - decides to head onto another boozer on it's own where it subsequently makes a successful pass at NOGAPS , as a result churns out nonsense all weekend.

 

GFS Parallel spends the evening at the dartboard knocking back the pints in true lad style, bragging how it managed to get all of ECMs useful coding at a recent upgrade and is awaiting a promotion sometime in January.

 

Meanwhile MOGREPS stands at the bar quaffing bond style cocktails with the NASA and FIM models flipping out quips about £100m supercomputers and cunning plans for world domination.

 

GEM has gone home early having come out dressed for a nice summer evening in accordance with it's 850 temp profile.

 

The Chinese model hasn't arrived at the party yet and is expected some time in March.

 

Very humorous lorenzo.

[johnholmes]

Better 12Z's GFS and GFSP, FI still but trend there, then as usual IDO (bit of a pain) on MOD cherry picks a less cold chart deep FI on the GEM!

 

Xmas day looks cold and dry in the south

 

Perhaps but his posts overall are a model to a good many in the model thread, uses charts and explains why he thinks a particular pattern will occur-much preferred to some of the hype and 'clever' misuse of terms.

[Biggin]

Better 12Z's GFS and GFSP, FI still but trend there, then as usual IDO (bit of a pain) on MOD cherry picks a less cold chart deep FI on the GEM!

 

Xmas day looks cold and dry in the south

Yep and 2 weeks out.

[DAVID SNOW]

Perhaps but his posts overall are a model to a good many in the model thread, uses charts and explains why he thinks a particular pattern will occur-much preferred to some of the hype and 'clever' misuse of terms.

 

 

Some posts are 'good' and some are not so 'good' with the vast majority somewhere in between: this site is populated by amateur weather enthusiasts 'with a few exceptions' and their enthusiasm for the weather keeps this site alive. This is not the bleeding met office.

[johnholmes]

Some posts are 'good' and some are not so 'good' with the vast majority somewhere in between: this site is populated by amateur weather enthusiasts 'with a few exceptions' and their enthusiasm for the weather keeps this site alive. This is not the bleeding met office.

 

point taken young man-not sure why the outburst as I simply commented on my liking for the style of posting of one poster-cannot be bothered to report you.

[TonyH]

Thats unfair. Ido posts unbiasedly all year round, his ccommon sense and level headed contributions prove far more informative and accurate then those ramping up the coldness. And talk about cherry picking charts that suit an agenda... NO ONE does that more then coldies.

Totally agree he is an excellent contributor, plain speaking and to the point  :smiliz34:

[TonyH]

point taken young man-not sure why the outburst as I simply commented on my liking for the style of posting of one poster-cannot be bothered to report you.

I can  :w00t:

[stewfox]

 

I am not unmindful that some of you have come here out of great trials and tribulations as a break from the model thread

 

Yesterday I had a dream that one day everyone in the model thread would come together and sing from the same hymn sheet and forget their differences and bickering and realize all model children will sing together with new meaning

 

I had a dream 

 

An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably unexpected  explosive pattern change last night , one of the most eye-catching forecast  ever issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive coldest out look ever  (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Christmas Eve onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to draw sub--20c . So, for us it's a story of 8 ft snow drifts and cancelling trips to the mothering law this christmas (gales/severe gales/heavy /snow)  Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek mild evolutions nothing in site next 40 days. Meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves  sub CET 0c for first 20days Jan has strong support.

 

Edited December 19, 2014 by stewfox

[KTtom]

Oh, cant be bothered!

Edited December 19, 2014 by KTtom