Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Gavin Hannah]

Just to add to the frost saga there was a nice frost at 6.00, and the mild in the long term has got downgraded a few days ago it was showing the Azores high all over us but now its 50\50 with more and more cold scenarios and runs showing up for the festive period and beyond, so enjoy your mild weather this week because after Xmas all bets are off. Bring on the snow and frost.

 

I don't like to rub salt into wounds BUT, I will be back in Scotland for 2 weeks over christmas and new year, so I will be sure to post photos of snow on christmas day in here    

[mushymanrob]

Just to add to the frost saga there was a nice frost at 6.00, and the mild in the long term has got downgraded a few days ago it was showing the Azores high all over us but now its 50\50 with more and more cold scenarios and runs showing up for the festive period and beyond, so enjoy your mild weather this week because after Xmas all bets are off. Bring on the snow and frost.

 

my mild?... do you think god has given me some mild weather? lol, didnt know i was that influencial!

long term mild downgraded?... just a few days ago we were told that 'theres no mild' , now we are looking at at least two spells before crimbo and the 'cold' isnt really that cold either is it, its average cold which like today, in the sun, is really quite useable.

[Barry12]

Let those who seek the mild weather enjoy it, for the cold weather will dominate into the Christmas period, with snow falling on thy ground, with cold sweeping down thee land.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There's a growing feeling of something exceedingly cold emerging in the models in the next few runs. 12Z awaited with much anticipation! :clap:

[LJS22]

Noticed the Met Office 30 day forecast has been updated and completely dropped the ' Very Cold ' signal for early January it had last week that got everyone so excited.

 

That seems to be being blissfully ignored this afternoon.  

 

Wonder why  

Edited December 16, 2014 by LJS22

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Noticed the Met Office 30 day forecast has been updated and completely dropped the ' Very Cold ' signal for early January it had last week that got everyone so excited.

 

That seems to be being blissfully ignored this afternoon.  

 

Wonder why  

Someones going to have serious eggs on their faces but the momentum is towards a cold pattern developing looking at todays models so far. The NAO is also looking to go negative..

[knocker]

There's a growing feeling of something exceedingly cold emerging in the models in the next few runs. 12Z awaited with much anticipation! :clap:

 

I know, the vibes indicating imminent hysteria are palpable.

[Mapantz]

I guarantee, at some point over the next few days- there's going to be posts from the same people, moaning when the charts churn out a run they don't like for the christmas period.

I'm a bit gutted at the cloudy output for this week, I was hoping to get a nice view of the bright ISS pass tonight & tomorrow.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Mapantz

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I guarantee, at some point over the next few days- there's going to be posts from the same people, moaning when the charts churn out a run they don't like for the christmas period.

I'm a bit gutted at the cloudy output for this week, I was hoping to get a nice view of the bright IIS pass tonight & tomorrow.

Awesome run for the xmas period on the GFS 12z!

[NorthYorksWeather]

BOOM, another corker of a GFS run.

 

Here comes GFS P, slightly different but the trend is the main thing at this timescale 

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by vizzy2004

[mushymanrob]

Awesome run for the xmas period on the GFS 12z!

 

indeed it is if you like cold... not so good for those who are travelling.

but already some are believing these charts WILL verify, 9 days away!

IF the gfs and ecm are showing the same charts the gfs is currently suggesting IN A WEEKS TIME then there will be cause for celebration in some quarters.

i believe the gfs 12z is amplifying the cold chances, or the severity of the cold, and whilst a similar pattern may arise, itll likely be a more ordinary northwesterly, as previous runs have indicated.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

indeed it is if you like cold... not so good for those who are travelling.

but already some are believing these charts WILL verify, 9 days away!

IF the gfs and ecm are showing the same charts the gfs is currently suggesting IN A WEEKS TIME then there will be cause for celebration in some quarters.

i believe the gfs 12z is amplifying the cold chances, or the severity of the cold, and whilst a similar pattern may arise, itll likely be a more ordinary northwesterly, as previous runs have indicated.

You must even bore yourself sometimes surely :-)

Edited December 16, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[NorthYorksWeather]

indeed it is if you like cold... not so good for those who are travelling.

but already some are believing these charts WILL verify, 9 days away!

IF the gfs and ecm are showing the same charts the gfs is currently suggesting IN A WEEKS TIME then there will be cause for celebration in some quarters.

i believe the gfs 12z is amplifying the cold chances, or the severity of the cold, and whilst a similar pattern may arise, itll likely be a more ordinary northwesterly, as previous runs have indicated.

 

Its amazing how long you can be on Netweather (not far behind you rob) yet still get excited by charts well outside the reliable timeframe, ive done this so many times and been disappointed. But its madness what some fluffy white flakes can do a man! Anyway il be ramping cold F.I charts till 2071 

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by vizzy2004

[joggs]

I agree with mushymanrob.The mo agree on a cold spell mid of nxt wk then back to mild and no mention of a sustained cold spell that people keep leading others down the garden path with.Until the mo come on board re change,im not getting myself worked up,and im a coldie lol.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Whilst GFS P initially looked good it never actually built high pressure into Greenland, more a mid Atlantic high meaning it topples under the pressure of the lows exiting eastern US. This is one scenario we don't want to see!

[mushymanrob]

You must even bore yourself sometimes surely :-)

 

lol.. not as much as fantasy cold ramping does mate! just look at the frenzy a probable outlier or over amplified fi chart can muster.

 

Its amazing how long you can be on Netweather (not far behind you rob) yet still get excited by charts well outside the reliable timeframe, ive done this so many times and been disappointed. But its madness what some fluffy white flakes can do a man! Anyway il be ramping cold F.I charts till 2071 

 

fair play sir! as long as you dont moan when/if these charts dont verify then alls well and good.

in summer i look for heatwaves, spanish plumes, thunderstorms, but will not waste my energy getting excited by fi charts so i dont really understand why others do... hey ho, its their energy to waste i guess!

[Mr Frost]

lol.. not as much as fantasy cold ramping does mate! just look at the frenzy a probable outlier or over amplified fi chart can muster.  fair play sir! as long as you dont moan when/if these charts dont verify then alls well and good.in summer i look for heatwaves, spanish plumes, thunderstorms, but will not waste my energy getting excited by fi charts so i dont really understand why others do... hey ho, its their energy to waste i guess!

Fair play to you mushy - you do a fair amount of whinging during Winter but you are equal in Summer when others are getting carried away by Spanish plumes showing at +384 hours away.

You give a balanced/unbiased view in Summer and with you being one of the biggest heat lovers on this site for so long I applaud you on that - love a hot Summer myself but we both know the chasing/hopecasting goes on in that season also. (Lesser numbers due to quieter forum)

A few of the I hate cold and snow brigade who post daily in here with sarcastic one liners/personal attacks on members should take note from you.

I have never understood if someone hates a certain season so much (Summer or Winter) why bother posting at all during it? Especially when it is a personal attack/sarcastic remark.

There seem to be 3 or 4 people doing exactly that on a daily basis in here at the moment.

Quite bizarre really!

Would be nice if this thread could get back to being a light hearted ramp/moans thread without all the schoolgirl jibes, handbags and bed wetting schoolboy vibes.

It is sad to see grown men having a personal agenda against certain members and weather types - if you don't like it don't post in the season you hate so much.

Simples.

[Hocus Pocus]

I sense a case of Deja vu with the outlook, all I see at this present time is a cold snap quickly followed by the same Westerly regime that's been in place for the last 10 days. I fear there's going to be a lot of heartache nearer the time when those nirvana charts become a mirage in the distance again.

[Timmytour]

I hope something cold really is afoot......I must admit I've been waiting for the models to "pick up the signal" for so long time now I'm starting to think I'd have more chance of seeing it by waiting outside my local supermarket for Kate Moss and Naomi Campbell to pop in and buy some toothpaste.....

Edited December 16, 2014 by Timmytour

[CanadaAl]

It seems the GFS is having a hard time modeling this drop in energy around 20/21st Dec. I noticed a huge difference at t+174 between the 06z and 12z runs. I realise it could easily swing back but it goes to show that post xmas it's all up for grabs. 

[Bristawl Si]

Model runs all over the place.

Is that anything new?

Something's afoot, me thinks.

New Year - new weather pattern....maybe...for the UK.

[swfc]

Just one run but ecm at 240hrs slightly out of kilter with the other mo

[Blackjack]

Good to see Tamara "knocking" a post

Edited December 16, 2014 by Blackjack

[tinybill]

all i  say its to close to   call reg  Xmas  day  looking  at the  models north  could get snow  and the rest of the UK could get some after  boxing day  even people  at work are asking me i seem  to get it right most times reg storms  coming  i told them i tell them Friday as its me last day till the 5 Jan  hopefully by then we covered  with the stuff and i cant get  back to work!!

[Timmytour]

We are two hours away from "That GFS Pub Run"........