Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[ribster]

Well as a young hand I find it totally incredible that anyone would wish for a repeat of the winter of 62-3. Reading this sort of comment I must admit I do have have serious concerns regarding the mental stability of some in this area, Still "Hope Springs Eternal"

Charts weatherbell

 

Oh and a quote from Matt Hugo 20 minutes ago.

Interesting that you should cherry pick that tweet, haven't seen you post any where he refers to cold

[snow freak]

i just give up looking at the charts as they just lead us up a dead alley.  all the talk about something potential happening within 2 weeks or so is just plain wishful thinking.  Okay this winter isn't quite as abysmal as last year, but the constant raising of hopes of some white stuff appearing only to be shattered the next day is hardly filling me with hope again this year.  Sometimes i really hate the british climate.  It's okay if you love gales and rain but not much else.

[knocker]

Interesting that you should cherry pick that tweet, haven't seen you post any where he refers to cold

 

Actually I didn't cherry pick it, you are confusing me with the cold illiterati, it just happened to be his last tweet at the time of posting.

Edited December 10, 2014 by knocker

[Carl46Wrexham]

Mild dry weather would be really nice. Not liking this current pattern one bit. Yeah great for the Scottish mountains and possibly higher parts of Northern England.

For the rest of us it's cold and wet, with another bout of rain and wind incoming followed by what are termed "wintry" showers but in reality turn out to be heavy rain showers, possibly with a few half melted hailstones if you're "lucky"

Seeing posts in the MOD suggesting nothing particularly snowy likely this side of Christmas, I'd be willing to wager it'll only be a matter of time before this month gets binned as a fail.

Sorry but windstorms and rain don't do it for some of us...we saw far too much of that crap last time round.

[Mapantz]

Based on today's 06z GFS it does look like there is a strong possibility now of getting a below average December. The CET is forecast to be 0.7-1C below the average for the 15th, and with the PM incursions looking like continuing into the Christmas period this looks like almost a certainty now.

I just saw the CET up to the 9th (4.8C) making it 0.3C below. I also saw (just moments ago) that's it'll be bang on average mid-month. If the predicted milder air makes a return next week, then this will surely go up? I can't see how you can determine a below average month as a certainty?

You've really been confusing lately! Just a few days ago, you were calling out tamara to explain herself about a pattern change you were waiting for, that hasn't materialised (in your words, I might add) Now you're back on the ramp. You change your tune as much as the models do at 144 and beyond.

[TonyH]

I just saw the CET up to the 9th (4.8C) making it 0.3C below. I also saw (just moments ago) that's it'll be bang on average mid-month. If the predicted milder air makes a return next week, then this will surely go up? I can't see how you can determine a below average month as a certainty?

You've really been confusing lately! Just a few days ago, you were calling out tamara to explain herself about a pattern change you were waiting for, that hasn't materialised (in your words, I might add) Now you're back on the ramp. You change your tune as much as the models do at 144 and beyond.

My hunch would be an average to rather mild December now, and that my 4.0c CET guess may be rather low!

[TonyH]

 lol... my thoughts exactly!

 

by better do you mean milder and dry?...

No, and as I am sure you realise Mushy, I refer to the general Netweather consensus of cold snowy weather as being perceived the better option

Edited December 10, 2014 by TonyH

[Barry12]

I just saw the CET up to the 9th (4.8C) making it 0.3C below. I also saw (just moments ago) that's it'll be bang on average mid-month. If the predicted milder air makes a return next week, then this will surely go up? I can't see how you can determine a below average month as a certainty?

You've really been confusing lately! Just a few days ago, you were calling out tamara to explain herself about a pattern change you were waiting for, that hasn't materialised (in your words, I might add) Now you're back on the ramp. You change your tune as much as the models do at 144 and beyond.

 

I haven't looked at the CET myself, I was just going by what Steve Murr said:

 

'As for the models the reality is all the Model LRF's & METO were milder than ave & at this stage with the projected CET to the 15th is going to be around 4-4.3c (~ 0.7-1c below norm )'

 

I did also say 'based on the 06z GFS', in the next 16 days most look below average temperature wise, with 2-3 days average or slightly above. We'd have to have a very mild last week of December for the CET to not end up below average. I can say its very likely based on the models.

 

I was reading throughout November about a big pattern change during the middle/end of December, and they did seem fairly confident of this happening, which is why I was disappointed. I'm not really on the ramp, all I said is January is looking 'interesting'. I don't see anything that interesting this side of Christmas, but snow is still possible for the North.

[Infinituum]

Can someone please kindly advise when the 12z GFS model starts rolling out? Thanks in advance...

[Yarmy]

Can someone please kindly advise when the 12z GFS model starts rolling out? Thanks in advance...

 

Now.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Makes me laugh how during Winter we seem to be constantly poised for something better potentially at 10-12 days

 

Was the same last Nov and Dec, and I am still waiting

[Infinituum]

Thanks Yarmy! :-)

[Hocus Pocus]

Actually I didn't cherry pick it, you are confusing me with the cold illiterati, it just happened to be his last tweet at the time of posting.

To be fair to knocker he did only posts what was said at the time and also he does post cold charts if they're showing and vice versa when not, having said that me thinks he posts some of the milder stuff to counter the cold bias in the MOD thread. Nothing wrong with that as its model related and actually showing in the output, but some just get a little wind up though and take it all to heart. Tis only weather folks whatever the weather. Edited December 10, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[mushymanrob]

No, and as I am sure you realise Mushy, I refer to the general Netweather consensus of cold snowy weather as being perceived the better option

 

lol..i know, but anything thats not a raging blizzard cold wise to me isnt 'better', so let it be mild!

 

I haven't looked at the CET myself, I was just going by what Steve Murr said:

 

'As for the models the reality is all the Model LRF's & METO were milder than ave & at this stage with the projected CET to the 15th is going to be around 4-4.3c (~ 0.7-1c below norm )'

 

I did also say 'based on the 06z GFS', in the next 16 days most look below average temperature wise, with 2-3 days average or slightly above. We'd have to have a very mild last week of December for the CET to not end up below average. I can say its very likely based on the models.

 

I was reading throughout November about a big pattern change during the middle/end of December, and they did seem fairly confident of this happening, which is why I was disappointed. I'm not really on the ramp, all I said is January is looking 'interesting'. I don't see anything that interesting this side of Christmas, but snow is still possible for the North.

 

you confuse me too.... one minute youre quoting steve murr, the next your using the 06z that steve murr suggested was not worth considering...

 

* just in case my memory isnt right, it was sm who thought the gfs 06z was poor wasnt it?...

now youre looking into january for something interesting yet the other day you were going on about looking into fi for mild being a mugs game .... confused dot com.

the point is about pattern changes, thus far non of the expected ones have come into reality, and the northern blocking and eastern blocking we saw through november were far closer to reality then the projected one coming sometime isnt even showing at first base on the models. ive seen dates of nov 14-16, nov 20th, second week in december, third week in december, now its after crimbo...  

one day someone will guess it correctly, and be hailed as the new weather messiah,   buy enough lottery tickets and one day youll win.

of course there will be a pattern change one day, it may well be just after crimbo, but when it does come theres no guarantee itll be a cold solution. from where the azores high is expected to be soon, a bartlett is closer to reality then a scandinavian high.

nobody knows what weather pattern might lie ahead, best not to speculate too much, the success rate of speculative predictions is woefully bad, and stick with the reliable timeframe.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

lol..i know, but anything thats not a raging blizzard cold wise to me isnt 'better', so let it be mild!

 

 

you confuse me too.... one minute youre quoting steve murr, the next your using the 06z that steve murr suggested was not worth considering...

 

* just in case my memory isnt right, it was sm who thought the gfs 06z was poor wasnt it?...

now youre looking into january for something interesting yet the other day you were going on about looking into fi for mild being a mugs game .... confused dot com.

the point is about pattern changes, thus far non of the expected ones have come into reality, and the northern blocking and eastern blocking we saw through november were far closer to reality then the projected one coming sometime isnt even showing at first base on the models. ive seen dates of nov 14-16, nov 20th, second week in december, third week in december, now its after crimbo...  

one day someone will guess it correctly, and be hailed as the new weather messiah,   buy enough lottery tickets and one day youll win.

of course there will be a pattern change one day, it may well be just after crimbo, but when it does come theres no guarantee itll be a cold solution. from where the azores high is expected to be soon, a bartlett is closer to reality then a scandinavian high.

nobody knows what weather pattern might lie ahead, best not to speculate too much, the success rate of speculative predictions is woefully bad, and stick with the reliable timeframe.

I always seem to get the impression from your posts that you are quite jealous of the "popular winter" posters on here!. Just my little old opinion of course.

[MR EXTREMES]

i personally dont see a south south west flow from any of the models so its rather refreshing to say pretty normal december so far with a little below for northern areas and id be more confident of a colder spell coming in the next 14 days or so.

i dont buy into the posts of this morning and the doom and gloom its more of the same im afriad so for the blowtorch winter hopefuls its not looking good.

[winterof79]

A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output remains the rationale behind the wording of the outlook towards end Dec-New Year, with some interesting/intriguing signals into that period. That's all I can share at present.

Oooh You have done it now Ian..........Its beginning to feel a lot like christmas

[mushymanrob]

I always seem to get the impression from your posts that you are quite jealous of the "popular winter" posters on here!. Just my little old opinion of course.

 

jealous?...lol.. nah maybe if i courted popularity but i clearly dont. its easy enough to court popularity, just put a 'possitive' or cold spin on everything. of course i am in high regard for the real knowlegable, who isnt?.

 

[Recretos]

Great bit of analysis,but I bet you'll be playing cluedo on your own this xmas!

 

Nah, I I will spent it at my GF's place. Am starting to teach her how to plot graphics actually. And I am not sure what my "analysis skills" have anything to do with my social life?

Edited December 10, 2014 by Recretos

[Mair Snaw]

A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output remains the rationale behind the wording of the outlook towards end Dec-New Year, with some interesting/intriguing signals into that period. That's all I can share at present.

OOOOHHH EEK....This place is about to go in to total meltdown with this little tease...Ian you are gonna give most of the members on here sleepless night...but thanks for the update...  

[TonyH]

I haven't looked at the CET myself, I was just going by what Steve Murr said:

 

'As for the models the reality is all the Model LRF's & METO were milder than ave & at this stage with the projected CET to the 15th is going to be around 4-4.3c (~ 0.7-1c below norm )'

 

I did also say 'based on the 06z GFS', in the next 16 days most look below average temperature wise, with 2-3 days average or slightly above. We'd have to have a very mild last week of December for the CET to not end up below average. I can say its very likely based on the models.

 

I was reading throughout November about a big pattern change during the middle/end of December, and they did seem fairly confident of this happening, which is why I was disappointed. I'm not really on the ramp, all I said is January is looking 'interesting'. I don't see anything that interesting this side of Christmas, but snow is still possible for the North.

It could go either way really but I am seeing it ending up slightly milder than average.

[TonyH]

lol..i know, but anything thats not a raging blizzard cold wise to me isnt 'better', so let it be mild!

 

 

you confuse me too.... one minute youre quoting steve murr, the next your using the 06z that steve murr suggested was not worth considering...

 

* just in case my memory isnt right, it was sm who thought the gfs 06z was poor wasnt it?...

now youre looking into january for something interesting yet the other day you were going on about looking into fi for mild being a mugs game .... confused dot com.

the point is about pattern changes, thus far non of the expected ones have come into reality, and the northern blocking and eastern blocking we saw through november were far closer to reality then the projected one coming sometime isnt even showing at first base on the models. ive seen dates of nov 14-16, nov 20th, second week in december, third week in december, now its after crimbo...  

one day someone will guess it correctly, and be hailed as the new weather messiah,   buy enough lottery tickets and one day youll win.

of course there will be a pattern change one day, it may well be just after crimbo, but when it does come theres no guarantee itll be a cold solution. from where the azores high is expected to be soon, a bartlett is closer to reality then a scandinavian high.

nobody knows what weather pattern might lie ahead, best not to speculate too much, the success rate of speculative predictions is woefully bad, and stick with the reliable timeframe.

LOL yes but immediately conveniently forgotten should it show the oh so badly desired cold outlook

[J10]

So far I am finding this winter much better than last winter, with a better balance some frosts some wintriness and some drier spells when last winter anything but.

 

The wind direction is also better coming from a North Westerly direction as opposed to South Westerly also ensuring better weather patterns.

[mcweather]

Well as a young hand I find it totally incredible that anyone would wish for a repeat of the winter of 62-3. Reading this sort of comment I must admit I do have have serious concerns regarding the mental stability of some in this area, Still "Hope Springs Eternal"

 

Hi Knocker,

 

I'm not sure you took my post in the vein that it was intended, because nowhere in it did I say that I was wishing for another 62/3 or 47. Iwas just pointing out that those two exceptional winters did not start early in the season.

 

I know sometimes one can react to a post without reading it properly, Still hope springs eternal eh.

Edited December 10, 2014 by mcweather

[conor123]

Funny how you see an Azores High and tropical upper's this time of year and +168hrs and it's guaranteed to come off near exact, see a northerly/easterly and 5 shortwaves, euro highs, azores highs, the lot appear out of nowhere to ensure 7c and a spot of drizzle come the day  .

Meanwhile in August, every attempt at seeing high pressure push in downgraded to screaming Northerlies *sigh*.