Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stodge]

Winter hasn't started yet and some on here seem to be drawing stumps already. If you expect three months of storm force easterlies and -20c uppers, you're going to be sorely disappointed. I'd be surprised if there hasn't been at least one (and indeed more than one) period of sustained Atlantic-driven predominantely mild weather between December 1st and February 28th in every year for the past hundred or so.

 

The coldest winters (46-47, 62-63) had mild periods in them. To imagine we can go three months without any form of SW'ly mild flow is foolish. To get cold conditions, we need a lot of things to drop our way and even if we get a week or two of "cold" (or even a month such as December 2010) the price is often mild for the rest of winter (who remembers Jan/Feb 2011 ?).

 

The last significant cold period I recall was March 2013 - a remarkable month on many levels but for all the talk of mild, the winter of 2013-14 was only the second snowless winter I've experienced in lowland East London since 2005. Sometimes the snow has been light and transitory but we've had some decent falls too. 

 

I would much rather have mild conditions now and indeed for the next month to set up cold conditions for December and January. I've always said the route to very cold starts from very mild. An Azores HP re-locating to Scandinavia is a good start and we are due a decent period of cold anticyclonic weather - lovely frost and fog and getting colder day by day. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Winter hasn't started yet and some on here seem to be drawing stumps already. If you expect three months of storm force easterlies and -20c uppers, you're going to be sorely disappointed. I'd be surprised if there hasn't been at least one (and indeed more than one) period of sustained Atlantic-driven predominantely mild weather between December 1st and February 28th in every year for the past hundred or so.

 

The coldest winters (46-47, 62-63) had mild periods in them. To imagine we can go three months without any form of SW'ly mild flow is foolish. To get cold conditions, we need a lot of things to drop our way and even if we get a week or two of "cold" (or even a month such as December 2010) the price is often mild for the rest of winter (who remembers Jan/Feb 2011 ?).

 

The last significant cold period I recall was March 2013 - a remarkable month on many levels but for all the talk of mild, the winter of 2013-14 was only the second snowless winter I've experienced in lowland East London since 2005. Sometimes the snow has been light and transitory but we've had some decent falls too. 

 

I would much rather have mild conditions now and indeed for the next month to set up cold conditions for December and January. I've always said the route to very cold starts from very mild. An Azores HP re-locating to Scandinavia is a good start and we are due a decent period of cold anticyclonic weather - lovely frost and fog and getting colder day by day. 

 

Well that certainly ain't me! I expect mostly westerlies, with the only significant snow being over 300m in the north

[kate1]

I might be missing something - is this thread not meant to be based loosely around the models? Some of these posts seem to belong elsewhere.

[A.J]

I might be missing something - is this thread not meant to be based loosely around the models? Some of these posts seem to belong elsewhere.

spot on

 

model banter, ramps & moans....the clue is in the word 'model' 

[Tony27]

After tomorrow predicted deluge (with metoffice warning for flooding already). We certainly do not need more rain.

it was supposed to rain all afternoon and evening here but it has been dry with a bit of sunshine and its still dry now, the forecasts are wrong at T0 so i have no idea why i bother to look at T240 charts

 

disagree fully, agree with Scott, if i had a choice, i would pick 13C and dry all winter by miles over 5-6C and relentless rain

that is tedious to the extreme, mild and dry in winter is far worse than it being chilly windy and wet, of course i wouldn't want it to rain all the time and i know some people don't want lots of rain as they get affected by floods, but i live no where near a river so lots of rain doesn't bother me, i'd love some high pressure if it brings chilly/cold days with frost at night but even that is too hard to achieve atm, as i said im fed up of these cloudy dry days with temps at about 10c, and yet again the models have downgraded good charts for yet more bland high pressure which will just bring average to above temps with no frost and probably not much sun either

Edited November 22, 2014 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

it was supposed to rain all afternoon and evening here but it has been dry with a bit of sunshine and its still dry now, the forecasts are wrong at T0 so i have no idea why i bother to look at T240 charts

 

that is tedious to the extreme, mild and dry in winter is far worse than it being chilly windy and wet, of course i wouldn't want it to rain all the time and i know some people don't want lots of rain as they get affected by floods, but i live no where near a river so lots of rain doesn't bother me, i'd love some high pressure if it brings chilly/cold days with frost at night but even that is too hard to achieve atm, as i said im fed up of these cloudy dry days with temps at about 10c, and yet again the models have downgraded good charts for yet more bland high pressure which will just bring average to above temps with no frost and probably not much sun either

 

There was never really any good charts showing, even in deep FI,

[Tony27]

i don't mean cold snowy charts i mean charts with  deep lows over the UK for later next week, but even though im a mere novice im not surprised its been replaced by high pressure i've seen it happen time and time again, the GFS is still showing low pressure but it will probably follow the ecm

Edited November 22, 2014 by Tony27

[Bristawl Si]

I think it's pretty clear from some of the more informed members that tentative signs of a change to more 'favourable' winter weather, past mid-December and into January have a good chance of coming to fruition.

Standard 'fare' as part of a decent winter, certainly here in the South, anyway.

[Captain Shortwave]

it was supposed to rain all afternoon and evening here but it has been dry with a bit of sunshine and its still dry now, the forecasts are wrong at T0 so i have no idea why i bother to look at T240 charts

 

Well it rained most of yesterday (albeit the rain was light) and well the radar this morning shows rain falling for all of the south east third of the UK with an endless train of rain coming up from the Bay of Biscay, I think the forecasts will be well justified by that result.

[mushymanrob]

lol.. despite a most sober and level headed post from ian fergusson last night (which proved very popular) some are still ignoring what he put. well its their perogative i suppose.

looking like a continuation with the current pattern, the block is really going nowhere fast and appears to be going to extend a ridge southwards, shutting the door on any 'sliders' and cold evolution. in fact this mornings runs suggest more mild is likely, especially the ecm 00z. but of course thats only one option.

[stewfox]

lol.. despite a most sober and level headed post from ian fergusson last night (which proved very popular) some are still ignoring what he put. well its their perogative i suppose.

 

 

I hear the ECM will be the new favourite tonight could end painfully for some by monday morning. 

Edited November 23, 2014 by stewfox
To remove off topic comment.

[knocker]

Latest NAO and AO update T1534 courtesy Ryan Maure weatherbell

Edited November 23, 2014 by knocker

[bobbydog]

lol.. despite a most sober and level headed post from ian fergusson last night (which proved very popular) some are still ignoring what he put. well its their perogative i suppose.

looking like a continuation with the current pattern, the block is really going nowhere fast and appears to be going to extend a ridge southwards, shutting the door on any 'sliders' and cold evolution. in fact this mornings runs suggest more mild is likely, especially the ecm 00z. but of course thats only one option.

I totally agree. Its almost pointless commenting on each run or even the differences between each model at the moment. There are so many comments on how the models are struggling or showing their bias etc, yet we have professional forecasters explaining that this is not the case. It is the uncertainty in the weather itself that is causing the model divergence. We also still have people worrying about a repeat of last year, based on any chart showing 'atlantic' weather anywhere near the UK. Yet we are constantly being told that current hemispheric weather patterns are expected and in line with the SAI, OPI etc with any proper winter weather expected to be no earlier than mid-december. Thats the whole point really, we ARE expecting proper winter weather, just not yet (in WINTER as it happens!)

[492]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

The cold to the NE is in place . Just need to get the high to play ball.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Models looking a bit better, even for cold with inversion style frost/fog possible

 

still think models underplaying the Atlantic, early Dec is still a very westerly time of year (although not as westerly as late Dec), still expect a trend for the Atlantic to slowly break through during early Dec

[knocker]

Ryan Maue doesn't seem very impressed with the P.

 

 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue  Â·

GFS parallel was restarted recently again. Doubt it was a cold restart but diff with current ops makes me wonder if it's stable

 

Not impressed w/GFS parallel. Anyone able to diagnose why diff: 9 mb weaker Noreaster & mystery Alberta Clipper pic.twitter.com/x8aO2z4o5E

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think it's time for the UK to have a proper

Winter. It's like queuing up for a nightclub and being told by the bouncer you'll be next!

[sparky1972]

well i was looking forward to a cold and snowy winter, but after reading various predictions im not convinced its going to happen, and now i have seen theweatheroutlooks 16 day forecast for my backyard and the snow symbols have made and apperance for the 8th and 9th december, wont put the shorts and t-shirts away just yet as thats a sure sign of a heatwave on the way, lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 12Z looking more realistic in FI, the Atlantic in control with wind and rain, all models I feel will begin to swing that way, expect the ECM to show the Atlantic in control on 216 and 240, and even more so on tomorrow's 12Z

[Snowman.]

RAMP TIME.

 

 

 

For the bants.

[Tony27]

here we go again, eye candy shown at T300

[Hocus Pocus]

here we go again, eye candy shown at T300

Yes who'd have thought it on the MOD thread. Edited November 25, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Mark wheeler]

It's going to happen I'm sure of it. Well maybe... Ummmm probably not . :-(

NIce to see though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Oh my god...              

[mushymanrob]

 the current models dont show anything other then normal late autumn/early winter type weather, unless you trawl through fi charts for an odd favoured one. i really dont see the need to conjur up fantasy evolutions, its a waste of time surely, as recent events surrounding the early northern blocking has proven. concentrate on the reliable and you wont be so disappointed.