Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stewfox]

This is the ramping thread, yes?...I'm full of heavy cold....so if I want to ramp cold.... let me

 

BFTP

 

Europeans will have to get used to Russia exporting bitter cold instead of gas. .

 

http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/31/coming-europe-winter-meteorologists-agree-it-is-going-to-be-damned-cold-early-siberia-snow-bodes-ill/

[Frosty.]

The models are very dull at the moment and I just can't summon any enthusiasm to post mundane charts. To get my snow fix I'm watching YouTube videos of last winters USA blizzards in Ohio and Dakota and this autumn blizzards with 57 inches of snow in New York state. I admire how some of you can keep reporting on the same old rubbish every day..hats off to you all.

[ANYWEATHER]

The models are very dull at the moment and I just can't summon any enthusiasm to post mundane charts. To get my snow fix I'm watching YouTube videos of last winters USA blizzards in Ohio and Dakota and this autumn blizzards with 57 inches of snow in New York state. I admire how some of you can keep reporting on the same old rubbish every day..hats off to you all.

Winter has not started yet in the Uk.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

While since I posted in here, Question is why is it so hard for us here in the UK, To achieve a Cold flowing Winter compared to either sides of the Pond, East and West. Apologises if this is a thicket request, I am just very curious as to why. Obviously the PV is a big player, But it is very frustrating when at times we seem to be so near yet so far in all output and data. 

 

 

Many Thanks.

General hemispheric flow is west to east, hence we get maritime influence as we have the Atlantic on our doorstep.  We also have the gulfstream / North Atlantic drift, a warm current.  So 'westerlies; for eastern states US is continental feed, same for China, Japan, Korea etc. while for us its maritme

 

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bristawl Si]

A typical slow-burn UK winter starting to develop imo.

Pre-Xmas nowt too cold, but not really mild either. Quietening down period. Not too many storms, etc (completely different from last winter).

*If* deep winter comes it'll be January and early February.

Forget Dec 09 and Nov 10 - major distortion of typical UK winters.

[knocker]

The mention of cyclogenesis yesterday reminded me of the storm Xynthia in 2010. If it's of interest an interesting paper on the storm by Dr. Peter Bissolli

 

http://www.knmi.nl/c..._xynthia_en.pdf

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Oh dear the quietness on the model thread this morning says it all!

[Steve Edgefield]

A few frosts and crisps days would be welcome and that in itself would make it more of a winter than last year. We're heading towards the end of Autumn and there's probably been at most two frosts that I can recall and I'm not sure they were proper air frosts. This mornings ECM offers yet another potential warm southerly towards end of next week if the block holds. Yes, hemispheric patterns are vastly different to last year but nevertheless we remain remarkably warm this side of the pond. Would be nice to see a switch but confidence for me is low at this juncture.

[knocker]

My thought for the day is that it's time the archaic term 'cold ramper' be consigned to the swear filter.

[Hocus Pocus]

An early punt but I would say we can rule out the first half of December for any substantial cold and until the MetO hint at a possible cold spell there's no point  hunting for cold just yet. That big block isn't  going to do us any favours in the short to medium term so hopefully we'll reap the rewards from it towards the back end of December onwards.

[legritter]

Plenty of time for winter to mature .13 weeks of winter to come ,most of the type of winters we crave for usually arrive later after the new year .But i must admit its depressing watching others getting the snow but has we know after a run of many mild winters SNOW Arrived to lift our spirits .Northern hemisphere pressure patterns look very interesting at the moment and we are only at the end, nearly of Autumn .  i,v ordered STellas all round ,RElax its only the 21st of November ,i,m off now to put up a new 500w Halogen lamp ,then we are off down Tesco for their bags of salt ,snow brush and shovel ,and a good stock up on Cans of food ,of course the Halogen light is for some flake watching ,the beauty of weather  watching is its not an exact science so tomorrow New Data could pop up to give us hope ,Ramp moan over ,Sausage Bap with brown sauce here i come ,cheers all 

[MR EXTREMES]

well id rule out early december for sure for any deep cold but not so much for NI or scotland  something more wintry here.

as for the rest of the uk pretty much like last year start to winter but i do hold high hopes for jan feb if the vortex does split and weaken but there is a possibility it could gain in strength like last year.

 

but dont expect anything exceptional id say as the winters of 80s 60s ect i pretty hard to come by in the era of global warming exception being 09/10 this years solar activity has been on the rise and is pretty high not like the run up to 09/10 winter where we had spotless days for over 300 days.

 

09/10 had exceptional high pressure over greenland which as we seen has not been a favoured area for height rises since solar activity increased.

[snow freak]

The main reason is the overriding westerly Atlantic airflow which picks up warmer air from the Atlantic. Vancouver also has the same problem over in Western Canada as it overlooks the Pacific.

 

To get cold over the UK, you need a number of factors to come into play, the main one to look for is higher heights over the Greenland / Iceland area, and/or over Scandinavia.

just with the bleedin atlantic would freeze over.

[snow freak]

just with the bleedin atlantic would freeze over.

sorry 'wish' not 'with'.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still think we will have one of our wettest December's on record, the high to the E/NE does not seem to be moving, fronts/troughs cannot get far enough east to clear the UK, and jet seems further south than normal,

 

really during Dec, a full dry day for the south will be a rarity/novelty, would be doing well even just for half a dry day, never mind snow/cold this Dec, lets look out for 3-4 hour dry windows timed for the day

[knocker]

A snow troll found in my mailbox. I'm suing for defamation.

Edited November 22, 2014 by knocker

[Snowman.]

Still think we will have one of our wettest December's on record, the high to the E/NE does not seem to be moving, fronts/troughs cannot get far enough east to clear the UK, and jet seems further south than normal,

 

really during Dec, a full dry day for the south will be a rarity/novelty, would be doing well even just for half a dry day, never mind snow/cold this Dec, lets look out for 3-4 hour dry windows timed for the day

Unless the block wins.

 

Or if the Atlantic wins.

[Mark Neal.]

Still think we will have one of our wettest December's on record, the high to the E/NE does not seem to be moving, fronts/troughs cannot get far enough east to clear the UK, and jet seems further south than normal,

 

really during Dec, a full dry day for the south will be a rarity/novelty, would be doing well even just for half a dry day, never mind snow/cold this Dec, lets look out for 3-4 hour dry windows timed for the day

Lets hope not, with the battle at the minute, doesn't look like the same story as last winter yet, with the Atlantic stalling to the West as this block continues in situ to the East.  Lets be positive, even if we don't get cold just yet, we may see some lovely sunny days crisp after morning frost, better than the Atlantic train of last year! 

 

N.B- Ofcourse the Atlantic may get through and we experience some wet conditions and unsettled but from my viewpoint, it looks a lot different to last winter!

Edited November 22, 2014 by Mark N

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z FI, my fears, flooding, days of rain, southerly tracking jet, blocking to the NE, that run in FI will be close to coming off I reckon

 

hopefully ECM FI will be closer, with jet on a more SW to NE angle, keeping southern UK mainly dry

[Tony27]

ECM is boring in FI i hope it doesn't come off, i'd rather have rain and gales than bland boring high pressure with temps of 8-12c

[MP-R]

Being stuck in a stalemate is one thing but when we're just on the wrong side of it and have to put up with this ridiculous mildness, it just gets silly. If only we could get a more southeasterly element with isobars tracking back across Europe, not up from the flippin' Med, it would at least feel more seasonal with temperature around or slightly below average. 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM is boring in FI i hope it doesn't come off, i'd rather have rain and gales than bland boring high pressure with temps of 8-12c

After tomorrow predicted deluge (with metoffice warning for flooding already). We certainly do not need more rain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM is boring in FI i hope it doesn't come off, i'd rather have rain and gales than bland boring high pressure with temps of 8-12c

 

disagree fully, agree with Scott, if i had a choice, i would pick 13C and dry all winter by miles over 5-6C and relentless rain

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM FI again suggests higher pressure to the south, could even be quite cold, light winds and fog, but I still expect the Atlantic to be in charge, more like GFS

[bryan629]

^^^ dont you just love the Gfs for its westwardly bias and poor handling of heights though,