Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Despite a more unsettled outlook across the models, none paint a full on zonal picture just yet - more a low-ridge-low-ridge scenario so quite different to last winter. What this means is that any cold is likely to come in the form of overnight frosts and lingering fog during the day but there certainly doesn't seem to be an Atlantic train setting up.

 

In fact, the latter frames of the GFS (albeit FI) show a weaker vortex with amplification upstream. If these signals continue then there may be something more seasonal into week 2 of December. Of course, all a long way off and a lot of water to pass under the bridge first.

 

looking shockingly wet, dosen't need to be 'zonal', worse now as the troughs just do not move through, 4 shocker wet days coming up, 21st-24th, I still reckon it could be one of the wettest winters on record, fronts do not seem to move through as quick now, jet seems to have slowed down, and seems further south

[RhysWales]

Really regret coming out of Netweather hibernation early this year. End of October I think. The holding pattern we are in seems to be never ending! Not far from an easterly but not sure how long this place can hold out!

[stewfox]

4 years ago today and the ECM 12z was looking a lot more interesting,

 

Compare that to the ECM 12z tonight

 

This tug of war between the the High in the East and the Atlantic in the west is frustrating who is going to win out ?, started of as a exciting prospect but by now we seem to be going know where , to my untrained eye despite all the shouting there doesn't seem to be a overall dominate winner yet ????

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This tug of war between the the High in the East and the Atlantic in the west is frustrating who is going to win out ?, started of as a exciting prospect but by now we seem to be going know where , to my untrained eye despite all the shouting there doesn't seem to be a overall dominate winner yet ????

 

 

I go for the Atlantic to win out, after all Dec is probably the most westerly month of the year, along with Jan and Feb

[MP-R]

looking shockingly wet, dosen't need to be 'zonal', worse now as the troughs just do not move through, 4 shocker wet days coming up, 21st-24th, I still reckon it could be one of the wettest winters on record, fronts do not seem to move through as quick now, jet seems to have slowed down, and seems further south

 

For some it could be shockingly wet. But the main thing to emphasize is the absence of damaging winds and at least in a slack set up there's 50% chance fronts won't even arrive at all. Having looked at my location on N-W forecasts, which in this setup should see some of the higher total, there's nothing out of the ordinary for November rainwise.

[stewfox]

I go for the Atlantic to win out, after all Dec is probably the most westerly month of the year, along with Jan and Feb

 

 

I think we need to see more of those short waves popping up in FI. Could lead to some interesting set ups. Its the long wave set up i struggle with. supporting chart attached.

[MR EXTREMES]

I go for the Atlantic to win out, after all Dec is probably the most westerly month of the year, along with Jan and Feb

i agree i think the garden path springs to mind in the strat thread jan being suggested as the month we might see something.

theres no movement from the scandi high and we need retrogression towards iceland and green land to even set up a chance i think this winter will be a let down.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Never mind Jan, it is IMO going to be a damp squib.  December to deliver, a sudden switch is coming and it could be monumental.  I am really liking the models at present, deep FI will change and the barrelling lows bringing us back to westerlies will disappear

 

BFTP

[Barry12]

i agree i think the garden path springs to mind in the strat thread jan being suggested as the month we might see something.

theres no movement from the scandi high and we need retrogression towards iceland and green land to even set up a chance i think this winter will be a let down.

 

You say the same every winter, you were saying the same in 2009/10, and look how that turned out. Nobody knows what the weather will be like further than 2 weeks out at very best.

Edited November 20, 2014 by Barry95

[ANYWEATHER]

Never mind Jan, it is IMO going to be a damp squib.  December to deliver, a sudden switch is coming and it could be monumental.  I am really liking the models at present, deep FI will change and the barrelling lows bringing us back to westerlies will disappear

 

BFTP

Did you not say, we are getting very cold in late November???

[stewfox]

Never mind Jan, it is IMO going to be a damp squib.  December to deliver, a sudden switch is coming and it could be monumental.  I am really liking the models at present, deep FI will change and the barrelling lows bringing us back to westerlies will disappear

 

BFTP

 

Where do you think these changes are coming from ? I'm not saying they won't but would be interested 

[DAVID SNOW]

Did you not say, we are getting very cold in late November???

 

Its not late November now, so perhaps criticism can wait?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Did you not say, we are getting very cold in late November???

No.....LRF in seasonal thread posted.  NW/SE axis of LPs late Nov bringing colder weather [if it brings a warm sector from the diving LP so be it which I have to admit I didn't expect but looks possible and a CET guess of 5.5 doesn't indicate very cold...though the set up is looking decent for cold prospects to evolve]...but lets not mistake that with a 'freeze ' arriving late Nov.  I think it will lead to much colder weather not long after ie early Dec in case you might think I mean sometime during winter 

 

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ANYWEATHER]

Its not late November now, so perhaps criticism can wait?

Youre right its not....But it will soon be...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Where do you think these changes are coming from ? I'm not saying they won't but would be interested 

Stew, just that we get towards a decent position, move into FI still OK then deep FI we get barrelled.  As this is the ramping moaning thread a place to be more bullish and more rampy?

 

BFTP   

Edited November 20, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think we need to see more of those short waves popping up in FI. Could lead to some interesting set ups. Its the long wave set up i struggle with. supporting chart attached.

 

Thought for a minute that was about my user name!

[ANYWEATHER]

Stew, just that we get towards a decent position, move into FI still OK then deep FI we get barrelled.  As this is the ramping moaning thread a place to be more bullish and more rampy?

 

BFTP   

What are you talking about:?   :cc_confused:  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What are you talking about:?   :cc_confused:  

Are you GP 2....problem??, PM me or ban me if you have a problem

 

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[DAVID SNOW]

Youre right its not....But it will soon be...

 

Indeed, but not 'now'!

[ANYWEATHER]

Are you GP 2....problem??, PM me or ban me if you have a problem

 

BFTP

Calm down! There is no problem...

[DAVID SNOW]

Are you GP 2....problem??, PM me or ban me if you have a problem

 

BFTP

 

Always enjoy reading your winter posts Fred, 11 years and counting on here. Please just carry on regardless  Probably all deleted soon...

[Jason T]

While since I posted in here, Question is why is it so hard for us here in the UK, To achieve a Cold flowing Winter compared to either sides of the Pond, East and West. Apologises if this is a thicket request, I am just very curious as to why. Obviously the PV is a big player, But it is very frustrating when at times we seem to be so near yet so far in all output and data. 

 

 

Many Thanks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Calm down! There is no problem...

This is the ramping thread, yes?...I'm full of heavy cold....so if I want to ramp cold.... let me

 

BFTP

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

While since I posted in here, Question is why is it so hard for us here in the UK, To achieve a Cold flowing Winter compared to either sides of the Pond, East and West. Apologises if this is a thicket request, I am just very curious as to why. Obviously the PV is a big player, But it is very frustrating when at times we seem to be so near yet so far in all output and data. 

 

 

Many Thanks.

The main reason is the overriding westerly Atlantic airflow which picks up warmer air from the Atlantic. Vancouver also has the same problem over in Western Canada as it overlooks the Pacific.

 

To get cold over the UK, you need a number of factors to come into play, the main one to look for is higher heights over the Greenland / Iceland area, and/or over Scandinavia.

[ANYWEATHER]

This is the ramping thread, yes?...I'm full of heavy cold....so if I want to ramp cold.... let me

 

BFTP

Go for it Mate,,,,,