Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

I take considerable comfort from OldMetMan's post over on the MOD thread - in the years I've been coming on Netweather during the winter months he has been proved right more often than not. I agree that we will have to wait a few more weeks - I suspect late December may be our first real shot at proper cold.

 

indeed... a realistic view might often not be a popular one, when theres little hope of a cold evolution, but realism invariably wins out. the recent hyperbole regarding the northern blocking is a prime example of this. most of what was conjectured has simply failed to materialise, and now parallels are being drawn between current charts and those of november 2010 before the big freeze. of course things could still go the way of the cold, something like 2010 could evolve, but its only 1 option.

[kimb]

Well horrible GFS I think ! With America set for some severe cold, I think lots of people will be contemplating another repeat of last winter over here !

[The Post-modern Winter]

Well horrible GFS I think ! With America set for some severe cold, I think lots of people will be contemplating another repeat of last winter over here !

 

You don't half mention this exact issue a lot. . Realistically though, I think 'lots of people' don't have any idea that the PV sitting to our NW producing cold for the U.S has any bearing on our weather and those who do care or take any interest in meterology, are more than likely listening to some of the wonderful posters of this forum who state that in the long term, this will have little bearing on our weather (See Tamara's post in the model thread). 

 

Of course there are the few that will relentlessly espouse negativity and unscientific, baseless talk of 'a repeat of last winter' and those who will have their hopes elevated and dashed with each model run. 'Lots of people' who matter though will sit back, view the models objectively and wait patiently in the understanding that the weather is an organic, complex process that makes fools of us all. 

 

But of course, keep banging the repetitive drum if you like the sound of it. 

[snowice]

You don't half mention this exact issue a lot. . Realistically though, I think 'lots of people' don't have any idea that the PV sitting to our NW producing cold for the U.S has any bearing on our weather and those who do care or take any interest in meterology, are more than likely listening to some of the wonderful posters of this forum who state that in the long term, this will have little bearing on our weather (See Tamara's post in the model thread). 

 

Of course there are the few that will relentlessly espouse negativity and unscientific, baseless talk of 'a repeat of last winter' and those who will have their hopes elevated and dashed with each model run. 'Lots of people' who matter though will sit back, view the models objectively and wait patiently in the understanding that the weather is an organic, complex process that makes fools of us all. 

 

But of course, keep banging the repetitive drum if you like the sound of it.

well last year th pv was very strong over the us and as a result we all no what type of winter we had.I know there are other factors to,but cold freezing air moving into warm waters of the alantic equal storm depressions forming.The jet then fires them at the British Isles.The saving grace is the jet is more disruptive than last year and the PV not as strong over us,fingers crossed it doesn't get any stronger.

[Polar Maritime]

Please can we keep posts based roughly around the Models, And not other members, Whoever they may be... 

 

Thanks PM.

Edited November 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Barry12]

I've quouted this in here rather than the mod thread, to save the moderator's effort in moving it..

While I do a agree to some extent, isn't a bit contradictory of you to say that when you posted this?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81842-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-151114/?p=3070187

 

There's a difference between analyzing a chart, and say a chart is 'nice' or 'interesting'.

[Mapantz]

There's a difference between analyzing a chart, and say a chart is 'nice' or 'interesting'.

I agree. But look at the difference between the charts you posted, and the ones that were posted by somebody else.

Let's leave it there, shall we?!

[Hocus Pocus]

Talk of similarities with 2012/13 with the output at the moment, God I hope not that was pretty awful around here with only one recorded snow event that accumulated and that was in March 2013.

[h2005__uk__]

I follow the model discussion thread up to a point, so forgive me if I've missed something, but doesn't the sign of any cold weather keep remaining in 'FI'? It feels like there's not really much going on in terms of the weather in the short-term - just mostly unsettled with average/slightly above average temps.

[Yarmy]

Wow, that's a strong organised vortex on this morning's parallel:

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by Yarmy

[snow freak]

I don't think i can stand the excitement of winter weather in this country.  Oh hold on, there is no excitement in the UK winter weather, it's just atlantic, atlantic, atlantic.

[492]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

A bemused atlantic at 10Z...must be the block to the east.

[Barry12]

I follow the model discussion thread up to a point, so forgive me if I've missed something, but doesn't the sign of any cold weather keep remaining in 'FI'? It feels like there's not really much going on in terms of the weather in the short-term - just mostly unsettled with average/slightly above average temps.

 

That tends to happen when we are in Autumn.

[Tony27]

I don't think i can stand the excitement of winter weather in this country.  Oh hold on, there is no excitement in the UK winter weather, it's just atlantic, atlantic, atlantic.

even though we think the weather in this country sucks, it's far worse to have in interest in the weather if you lived in spain or Portugal unless you live on high ground of course

 

as for the models im not in any rush to sit here and watch them when they start trickling out just yet hoping to see a beasterly in FI unless i have nothing better to do 

[fergieweather]

I don't think i can stand the excitement of winter weather in this country.  Oh hold on, there is no excitement in the UK winter weather, it's just atlantic, atlantic, atlantic.

Hmmm... last winter's almost weekly battering-ram was more than just 'interesting' from where I was watching in W Country. A truly exceptional season and meteorologically compelling. More of the same not impossible later next week: moreover, any such deep cyclonicity (as started to appear in postage stamps a couple of days back and continues now into DET models) phasing with high spring tides could become bothersome for both coastal and fluvial-tidal flood potential. Certainly one to watch.

[Steve C]

Hmmm... last winter's almost weekly battering-ram was more than just 'interesting' from where I was watching in W Country. A truly exceptional season and meteorologically compelling. More of the same not impossible later next week: moreover, any such deep cyclonicity (as started to appear in postage stamps a couple of days back and continues now into DET models) phasing with high spring tides could become bothersome for both coastal and fluvial-tidal flood potential. Certainly one to watch.

Thanks for the update. Looking at the timing of the New Moon, I'm thinking the highest tides will be between Monday and Wednesday. Hopefully any storms and the highest tides will be a bit out of synch. Fingers crossed.

[MR EXTREMES]

id be inclined to say nothing exciting on the cold front!!!!!!!!

 

i fear jan maybe even feb for anything even then the vortex looks like taking full control of our weather.

i fear not as bad as last year but not far of and there was me thinking that things where liking to 2009/10 but i retract this now.

[snow freak]

id be inclined to say nothing exciting on the cold front!!!!!!!!

 

i fear jan maybe even feb for anything even then the vortex looks like taking full control of our weather.

i fear not as bad as last year but not far of and there was me thinking that things where liking to 2009/10 but i retract this now.

I am sure that knowing the UK fickle weather we shall have raging easterlies and below average cold by early summer 2015.

[Mapantz]

Certain posters have claimed that the Atlantic will win out for weeks now, by analyzing day 10-16 charts supposedly supporting there claims, it was the exact same with the Polar Vortex apparently getting stronger and more organized. It does confuse me that certain posters still seem to be unable to understand the fact that what the models are showing outside the unreliable time frame is not certain to happen, whether it be an Atlantic flow or an Easterly flow.

Well, just as you post charts in that time frame, some balanced posters have merely shown that there have been some perturbations pushing in a more mobile setup for the UK. Ian F has reiterated this in the mod thread, and today, in this thread.

IF this becomes more of a trend, then it is worth focusing on- especially so, considering how wet it has been in the west country and southern areas. I expect the MO have a keen eye on this?!

Edited November 19, 2014 by Mapantz

[h2005__uk__]

That tends to happen when we are in Autumn.

There are usually a few more storms in autumn to liven things up a little (meteorologically speaking) though.

Edited November 19, 2014 by h2005uk

[Barry12]

i fear jan maybe even feb for anything even then the vortex looks like taking full control of our weather.

i fear not as bad as last year but not far of and there was me thinking that things where liking to 2009/10 but i retract this now.

 

What are looking at to make you think this, the CFS?

[Barry12]

Well, just as you post charts in that time frame, some balanced posters have merely shown that there have been some perturbations pushing in a more mobile setup for the UK. Ian F has reiterated this in the mod thread, and today, in this thread.

IF this becomes more of a trend, then it is worth focusing on- especially so, considering how wet it has been in the west country and southern areas. I expect the MO have a keen eye on this?!

 

All I was saying is that you shouldn't take the Atlantic charts in FI any more seriously than an Easterly chart in FI. Ian F said the Met Office only properly analyze charts out to T+132.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Barry95

[Captain Shortwave]

I am sure that knowing the UK fickle weather we shall have raging easterlies and below average cold by early summer 2015.

Luckily easterlies in summer are either warm or hot so no problems there

They are just awful in Spring and Autumn when they bring grey nothingness. Summer they are hot and sunny and cold and wintry in the winter.

[Weather-history]

id be inclined to say nothing exciting on the cold front!!!!!!!!

 

i fear jan maybe even feb for anything even then the vortex looks like taking full control of our weather.

i fear not as bad as last year but not far of and there was me thinking that things where liking to 2009/10 but i retract this now.

I smell a whiff of this in that post

When it should be

[johnholmes]

id be inclined to say nothing exciting on the cold front!!!!!!!!

 

i fear jan maybe even feb for anything even then the vortex looks like taking full control of our weather.

i fear not as bad as last year but not far of and there was me thinking that things where liking to 2009/10 but i retract this now.

 

Can you give a reason why you 'feel' this please? It might help those new to the forum to see what posters are 'seeing' to make the posts we do.