Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[phil nw.]

Thought I would drop this in to here rather than clutter up the main thread but - indeed!!

Might be a good challenge for someone to find anything close to this in the archives - there are a few examples available

SK

This came to mind SK.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-20-0-0.png

 

and we all know what followed.

 

Not sure we are primed for quite that yet-are we?

[stewfox]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH 2014.

So in a nutshell there seems little sign of Autumn 2014 going out on a cold note and the season once more will end up being a very mild and at times wet one with frosts rather less than average and day and night temperatures as a whole over the three months being well above average at times.

 

Thanks your like the guy at the party that tells us its time to go home, no body wants to , but in the morning you realize it was probably a good idea.

 

Lots hope casting at the moment which leads to comments such as 'poor model performance' when a specific cold signal at T240 doesn't verify 48hrs later.

 

The trends the models are showing have been fairly consistent ,there has been no repeated signal/s for anything remotely cold in the foreseeable out to T240 and beyond. I'm sure we will get the odd cherry pick of a T240 chart with if X goes there Y goes there then the route for cold from M is secure . That's hope casting in my mind not model discussion.

 

Managing expectations is very important as we haven't even started winter yet , generally its not the models that are useless, but the hope cast (ie the models drop a cold signal) that makes us believe they are.

 

If the models pick up a cold signal in F1 and we get model agreement out to T48 that the colds still on its way then the first BOOM BOOM gets my rep. I'll rep one BOOM at T72 or T96 if we are in Feb and still had nothing.

Edited November 15, 2014 by stewfox

[snowking]

This came to mind SK.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-20-0-0.png

 

and we all know what followed.

 

Not sure we are primed for quite that yet-are we?

 

That's certainly the one that sprung to mind for me.

 

Along with this (though not as impressive as the '47 chart):

 

 

But yes I would absolutely agree, it seems a little premature for now.

 

SK

[sundog]

 

Stewfox quote.

The trends the models are showing have been fairly consistent ,there has been no repeated signal/s for anything remotely cold in the foreseeable out to T240 and beyond. I'm sure we will get the odd cherry pick of a T240 chart with if X goes there Y goes there then the route for cold from M is secure . That's hope casting in my mind not model discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

True there are no signs of cold atm and i think one is best to consign this month to the bin as regards cold. Hoping for this or that to happen when most likely mild weather or certainly a lack of cold weather is staring us in the face for the rest of this month is nothing short of hopecasting.  We should forget the rest of this month and just sit out this pattern we find ourselves in and hope for a pattern change sometime next month.

Edited November 15, 2014 by sundog

[Eugene]

Yes nothing remotely cold in the models today in the foreseeable future, if we don't start seeing any remotely cold in the models by December 1st I will be calling this winter already over like I would of done in 1962 as faux cold isn't anything remotely cold.

[Polar Maritime]

I have just deleted a few off topic post's. Any issues with the Forum please pm a moderator, Do not post them in here. Otherwise please continue on with discussion based around the Models. 

 

Many Thanks, PM.

[Eugene]

Stronger build of HP to our NW on GFS 12Z for end of next week, very promising developments and hopefully an end to the atlantic driven weather in the week ahead and beyond, seems Steve Murr was way on the ball as usual, think he'll be very optimistic over that run

[Hocus Pocus]

Something's definately afoot with the models at the moment, each and every run which was showing the Atlantic making inroads into Europe at the beginning of this week has slowly but surely been making less and less of any incursions from the West. Now generally when we see devlopments like this a major pattern change follows, is this what we're seeing now or are we being led up the garden path again. Exciting times ahead no mafter what and far more interesting than watching one Atlantic storm after another barge it's way into the UK.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Stronger build of HP to our NW on GFS 12Z for end of next week, very promising developments and hopefully an end to the atlantic driven weather in the week ahead and beyond, seems Steve Murr was way on the ball as usual, think he'll be very optimistic over that run

 

it is better yes, all models agree on high pressure mostly to our NE, with an easterly, not that cold, but hopefully high pressure close enough to keep rain away

[Methuselah]

ECM 240!! The Great Winter of 2014/15 Begins.....

That's 10 days!

[snowice]

Oh the ecm is a cracker!what a fantastic time for model watching? December 2010 repeat Could be on the cards!

[Barry12]

December 2010 repeat Could be on the cards!

 

It's not that good

[Ali1977]

Be interesting to see if Ian F or Snowbalz have any positivities for coldies. The last possible signs early in Nov had no support from the MaeTO

[legritter]

Sit back gang ,relax lets have a few more runs or should i say several runs .Very interesting charts on offer ,I will now await our hvy squad and some other ECM data for possible back up ,im looking forward to tonights posts and of course the possibillity we could be seeing a pattern change ,but very early days, Caution but lets enjoy .

[MP-R]

Oh the ecm is a cracker!what a fantastic time for model watching? December 2010 repeat Could be on the cards!

 

If January and February 2011 are to follow then I sincerely hope not.

[bobbydog]

there you go-

 

 

 

 

one liner and a ramp...........

[I remember Atlantic 252]

trend the key i know, but this is FI, and zonal/low pressure is our weather, so I am not excited yet, and the isn't actually any cold/snow showing on models yet

[cheshire snow]

trend the key i know, but this is FI, and zonal/low pressure is our weather, so I am not excited yet, and the isn't actually any cold/snow showing on models yet

 

 Very true,however at least this year we have bought the lottery ticket,we just have to wait for the six balls 

 

 to hit the Jackpot

 

 at the Moment the first ball is out. 

 

C.S

[Yarmy]

TeaseCM at it again. Not to be a wet blanket, but this was its T240 last Saturday evening:

 

 

 

Still, they are good to look at.

[Bobby]

Some interesting charts appearing now. I feel something is brewing, momentum is slowly building towards... something.

 

Is it starting again?

 

JFF!

Edited November 15, 2014 by Bobby

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some interesting charts appearing now. I feel something is brewing, momentum is slowly building towards... something.

 

Is it starting again?

 

netweat.gif

JFF!

 

Sure you are not hoping for endless rain and flooding ruining people's Xmas! thought you worshipped rain and mild Atlantic air

[SnowObsessor90]

Well it looks like the 18z has indeed had a few tonight despite initial suggestions that it was sober

[Captain Shortwave]

So.......

Who has set their alarm for half 4 

 

I will admit, the roller-coaster has well and truly set off from the station.

Well until the models swing back to record breaking mild, then cold and then mild again.

And eventually record breaking mediocrity.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As I've said before I love gales and rain but I love cold and snow also, snow especially. I'd choose a December of freezing cold and repeated blizzards over a stormy wet one every time!

 

Cool, same as me then the bold bit, hope the models are on to something, with the FI easterlies, beast on 18Z is silly/unrealistic, but hoping for settled weather

[Barry12]

Great chart!

 

 

 

I'm dreaming of.. usually posts day 16 analysis, I haven't seen it tonight?

Edited November 15, 2014 by Barry95