Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok. Back to discussing around the Models, Before the thread gets completely de-railed. 

Edited November 10, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Bristawl Si]

Almost every Winter in my lifetime the UK is flanked by cold weather to our North and East and some winters to our south east, plus, of course, the mountain ranges of France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, etc.

Occasionally we get a taste; not every winter by any means.

So just because the 'building blocks' are slowly coming into place does not mean to say the UK will eventually get cold (and snow). We may do at some point, but we may not.

[J10]

I do agree with you that models consistently now say that we won't tap the cold pool and as a result i expect that we'll have to wait for a second build of Arctic Heights in a few weeks before we get a chance. 

 

But i don't think a wet and mild outcome in the traditional sense (i.e. the Atlantic winning) is a done deal. 

 

The 12z outputs in FI i think give a fairly real possibility whereby we end up with high pressure very near the UK. Now ignoring the angle from todays's outputs it's entirely possible that we end up with a high producing surface cold via an inversion. 

 

 

Tend to agree and would be very nice to see High pressure taking over for a while, not really that bothered if it brings any cold.

[summer blizzard]

Tend to agree and would be very nice to see High pressure taking over for a while, not really that bothered if it brings any cold.

 

Euro is weaker but fits the theme..

 

[snowblizzard]

Despite all the Northern blocking, it's beginning to look like the building blocks are steadily falling into place for a repeat of 2013/2014 winter.

Severe cold over NE USA & Canada, spawning series of deep lows that will be carried across the Atlantic towards UK by an ever strengthening jet.

Euro high causing lows to stall over UK resulting in flooding!

A nightmare scenario for many!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Despite all the Northern blocking, it's beginning to look like the building blocks are steadily falling into place for a repeat of 2013/2014 winter.

Severe cold over NE USA & Canada, spawning series of deep lows that will be carried across the Atlantic towards UK by an ever strengthening jet.

Euro high causing lows to stall over UK resulting in flooding!

A nightmare scenario for many!

 

Most likely correct there, this high pressure showing on GFS will gradually be replaced by a more normal setup, Atlantic air with rain, frosty highs will not happen

[snowblizzard]

Most likely correct there, this high pressure showing on GFS will gradually be replaced by a more normal setup, Atlantic air with rain, frosty highs will not happen

 Yes, we can only hope that any such pattern isn't maintained for the whole of the winter season like 2013/2014!

[snow freak]

i despair with the weather in this country now.  the thought of a repeat of last year's dire winter wants to make me go into hibernation.  America has more than its fair share of cold in normal winters let alone severe ones like last year.  Simply not fair.

[throwoff]

Fair?

 

There is no fairness about it, they are a huge land mass, we are a tiny island surrounded by sea...

[terrier]

Despite all the Northern blocking, it's beginning to look like the building blocks are steadily falling into place for a repeat of 2013/2014 winter.

Severe cold over NE USA & Canada, spawning series of deep lows that will be carried across the Atlantic towards UK by an ever strengthening jet.

Euro high causing lows to stall over UK resulting in flooding!

A nightmare scenario for many!

it does look like it is setting up to be very similar outcome again. But I do think we will see the Atlantic coming up against the cold air over uk later in the season.

[Winter Frost]

I think it will be similar too and I don't buy a cold December like Tamara said. Also I do though think that it will be cold for a short while and colder than last year.

Personally don't get steves view because to me it didn't really matter as the easterly was warm.

[Winter Frost]

Fair?

 

There is no fairness about it, they are a huge land mass, we are a tiny island surrounded by sea...

Yes thats true but they have gotten their fair share of well below average winters recently and the pv constantly dropping in there. Our winters really are over once we see cold there.

[Winter Frost]

well the weather at the moment is looking decidely like a repetition of last winters.  God i really hope we don't have a winter like last years again.  I don't think i could take another mild wet and windy one.

Neither could I. I would have a disaster attack, it was awful just constant rain rain and you were lucky if you got wet snow..

[legritter]

Stellas all round     No guarantee this winter will be a repeat of last year ,   come on gang the trees round here are still in leaf plenty of time for snow and frost ,and it can change, History tells us that .but i get the drift .last winter was compared to several winters from the 1700 s ,take a look at how many severe cold and snowy ones there were that century .I can hear some posters possibly thinking ,[we did not have Man made climate change then ]well whether we have or not, many parts of the globe still have record cold spells ,but take a look at our location and occasionally we hit the jackpot ,and we havent had a real beast for quite a while ,cheers gang off for a Bacon BAP .

[Weather-history]

Despite all the Northern blocking, it's beginning to look like the building blocks are steadily falling into place for a repeat of 2013/2014 winter.

Severe cold over NE USA & Canada, spawning series of deep lows that will be carried across the Atlantic towards UK by an ever strengthening jet.

Euro high causing lows to stall over UK resulting in flooding!

A nightmare scenario for many!

The only building blocks I see falling into place are the ones constructed by panic merchants, doom mongerers and the histrionic brigade.

It's the 11th November, it's a long way to go. No two winters are exactly the same. Even consecutive mild or cold winters have their subtle differences.

[johnholmes]

Neither could I. I would have a disaster attack, it was awful just constant rain rain and you were lucky if you got wet snow..

 

May we ask for you to put your location in your avatar as it means so much more when you report your weather? - thanks

[snowblizzard]

The only building blocks I see falling into place are the ones constructed by panic merchants, doom mongerers and the histrionic brigade.

It's the 11th November, it's a long way to go. No two winters are exactly the same. Even consecutive mild or cold winters have their subtle differences.

Yep, that's what everybody thought last winter, but Autumn continued all the way into Spring!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well for me the ECM was always being too quick, I'm looking for LP/s to move across with a marked one on NW/SE axis to usher in cold backend of the month.  What see from the models at present isn't the end of the situation at all.  I think the block will never be far away and certainly won't be blasted back the other side of the Urals or the arctic. 

GFS in FI from 00z to 06z to Parallel run are very differing, so that says a lot inasmuch nothing is ever nailed but currently its thousands of miles from being nailed.  Winter will arrive when its ready...relax

 

BFTP

[festivalking]

Winter  Autumn is over 

 

Anyone seen Frosty recently he was all over it during the summer and the start of autumn but has gone quiet now?

[Milhouse]

Mild and fairly wet looks the theme now for the next 10 days. The CET already above average is set to rise further, at a time when on average it would decrease through the month. As the past few days have shown, those looking for cold really need to wait till it gets to 7 days out before getting too excited. It is only November however so lots of time for a more favourable pattern to evolve for cold.

[knocker]

Today's suggestion for the swear filter - building blocks.

[Hocus Pocus]

Today's suggestion for the swear filter - building blocks.

No need as the swear filter is already busting at the limit with words such as, GLOSEA 5, CFS V2 and any other long range model. What happened too the good old days when  farming weekly was you only reliable long range forecasting tool.

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[CanadaAl]

Guys, i somehow CANNOT see a repeat of last winter. We have a lot more going for us this year

 

QBO - Negative 

Wave 2 Activity is increasing in the strat possibly inciting a SSW within the next month 

Polar vortex is significantly weaker this time around as can be seen in the NH charts.

 

I realise these are all ifs and buts but they're the same ifs and buts that base around another 2013/2014 winter. Still 4 months to go folks! 

[Weather-history]

Yep, that's what everybody thought last winter, but Autumn continued all the way into Spring!

And it still applies today, regardless of what happened. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Did anyone expect to see the snowfalls they did in the Midlands during early February 2007 from the 2nd week of January?

The point I'm making is that you are saying last winter's run up building blocks are falling into place.

The QBO is opposite to last year. So that's one building block you can't use. The vortex is under stress this year compared to last year at this stage.

So that's two circumstances that are not quite the same as last year.

Two consecutive seasons are never quite the same, there are nuances. This winter could actually be even milder overall than the last one but it could actually be more wintrier. It could even be wetter but we could see more snowfalls.

It could be those two variables that make the difference this winter enough to see something more akin to winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FI on the 00Z's looks normal now, can see it coming off, I expect that sort of setup to dominate until high pressure arrives in April