Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Polar Maritime]

I've worked outside Hill Farming (and continue to) all my life, And I can vouch that Summer time is not pleasant during hard manual work as you can end up with heat stroke/exhaustion as it's impossible to cool down no matter how much you strip off. In Winter it's no problem and you work harder to keep warm! Today is perfect chucked 3m of dry stone wall up already and not broke a sweat. I suppose it's all down to the type of work involved.  

Edited November 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[snow freak]

i agree.  this past summer was okay but nothing amazing.  dry overall, yes but not much in the range of cloudless skies for us in the east.  seems like the west did better than the east for sunshine this year.  temperatures were okay but again, nothing amazing and strangely enough we didnt even exceed the usual 30c this year although most of the time the temperatures were consistently in the mid twenties.  I just hope this winter isn't non descript either and especially not a repeat of last winter's awful mild mish mash.

 

In terms of convenience it has been nice but meteorologically speaking, IMO this year has been a yawn fest.

Little of interest locally, so on those grounds I hope to see a change to something more variable.

[mushymanrob]

I would have thought temperature is less relevant for working outdoors, surely dryness is more so.

 

you are correct, however getting wet is often cold!

 

I've worked outside Hill Farming (and continue to) all my life, And I can vouch that Summer time is not pleasant during hard manual work as you can end up with heat stroke/exhaustion as it's impossible to cool down no matter how much you strip off. In Winter it's no problem and you work harder to keep warm! Today is perfect chucked 3m of dry stone wall up already and not broke a sweat. I suppose it's all down to the type of work involved.  

 

theres a free rescource called water. drink it, tip it over yourself, youll soon cool down

[Hocus Pocus]

you are correct, however getting wet is often cold!

 

 

theres a free rescource called water. drink it, tip it over yourself, youll soon cool down

I've spent years working/playing in the outdoors and it's the heat and humidity which are the hardest to combat, granted 21c with a light breeze is nirvana like but once the temps are approaching 25+ c then it becomes increasingly more uncomfortable and hard work, regardless of mother natures tap. On the flip side working in wet and cold is equally hard work, but dry and cold and in this country ( I've rarely experienced severe cold in the UK ) is also excellent and productive.

[mushymanrob]

I've spent years working/playing in the outdoors and it's the heat and humidity which are the hardest to combat, granted 21c with a light breeze is nirvana like but once the temps are approaching 25+ c then it becomes increasingly more uncomfortable and hard work, regardless of mother natures tap. On the flip side working in wet and cold is equally hard work, but dry and cold and in this country ( I've rarely experienced severe cold in the UK ) is also excellent and productive.

It just goes to highlight that we arent all the same. Heat and humidity arent pleasant to work in, but id sooner have that then freezing cold hands, so much clothing its hard to move and freezing cold air on my hooter and down my windpipe. I tollerate heat better then cold, as i get older my cold tollerance decreases.

[Polar Maritime]

I worked outside and climbed mountains in sub -20c during Winter 09/10 it was wonderful.

Edited November 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

I worked outside and climbed mountains in sub -20c during Winter 09/10 it was wonderful.

I worked outside in dec 81 - 12c, never hurt so much in my life, lethargic, cold aches in my arms legs and stomach.

Hence stuff the cold.

Anyway, wtf is a mod doing stoking this vastly off topic banter? Lol

[hec1]

and the hunt for cold/snow begins...

[BlueHedgehog074]

I worked outside in dec 81 - 12c, never hurt so much in my life, lethargic, cold aches in my arms legs and stomach.

Hence stuff the cold.

Anyway, wtf is a mod doing stoking this vastly off topic banter? Lol

Indeed. Let's try keep this chatter more towards the models guys, please... or we might have to send some of you to the naughty corner. Thank you. 

[Dancerwithwings]

I worked outside in dec 81 - 12c, never hurt so much in my life, lethargic, cold aches in my arms legs and stomach.

Hence stuff the cold.

Anyway, wtf is a mod doing stoking this vastly off topic banter? Lol

Sorry! On topic, anything that has -20 in the post is a Ramp to me....- 12c, never hurt so much Try -30's then you'll know what hurts !!!!

[vladthemert]

with what going on in US if they repeat bad snow winter could we get repeat of our winter of storm hoarding a lot rainfall.

[mushymanrob]

Sorry! On topic, anything that has -20 in the post is a Ramp to me....- 12c, never hurt so much Try -30's then you'll know what hurts !!!!

 

...but ive not been working in -30c, the coldest was -12c, therefore what i posted was factually correct as it makes no difference that colder weather would hurt more...

[mushymanrob]

and the hunt for cold/snow begins...

 

itll be short lived then...... all indications are that from thursday onward itll return to mild and remain there for the forseeable future, so any hunt for cold/snow will be put on hold.

[Milhouse]

itll be short lived then...... all indications are that from thursday onward itll return to mild and remain there for the forseeable future, so any hunt for cold/snow will be put on hold.

 

Both ECM and GEFS ensemble means pointing towards a continuation of average November conditions with temps around 8-12c. We get it every year with people saying the cold is just around the corner. All throughout winter 2013-14 we got all the speculation but it never arrived.

 

This just says average to me

 

[knocker]

A chart you don't see every day of the week.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

and the hunt for cold/snow begins...

 

bit early yet for most, you are in north, but still only 4th Nov, low level snow even rarer than in Feb/Mar

[Penrith Snow]

GFS run certainly puts the mild weather of October behind us and if verified would result in slightly below average conditions for the first two thirds of November.

No zonal train and if you want a cold winter November is shaping up just fine with plenty of embryo Northern blocking.

Andy

[Paul]

A couple of posts removed this evening, just as a reminder this thread is to moan/ramp about the models, not other members posts. 

[mushymanrob]

A couple of posts removed this evening, just as a reminder this thread is to moan/ramp about the models, not other members posts. 

 

where can we do that then?

i mean, people who post the promis of x,y,z happening (feeding the frenzied mob) are held in high esteem by the fans of, but are not held to account when it invariably doesnt happen.

those posts might not break any rules, and are largely well constructed and make sense, but focusing on one aspect of what might happen (obviously the coldest possibility) is misleading to the rest of viewers who want a realistic idea of what might lie ahead. or dont the netweather admin team care about accuracy as long as they get page hits?  ive nothing against people who like cold, and like to play the spot the next cold game, but its high time this site provided a thread for BOTH 'types' of weather fan/watcher... a model thread for cold evolution spotting/ramping (which should be in this thread) and an unbias md thread .

is this post off topic? not really, i mean how can model discussion or moans and ramps work properly when theres this discrepancy?

[Average Joe]

where can we do that then?

i mean, people who post the promis of x,y,z happening (feeding the frenzied mob) are held in high esteem by the fans of, but are not held to account when it invariably doesnt happen.

those posts might not break any rules, and are largely well constructed and make sense, but focusing on one aspect of what might happen (obviously the coldest possibility) is misleading to the rest of viewers who want a realistic idea of what might lie ahead. or dont the netweather admin team care about accuracy as long as they get page hits?  ive nothing against people who like cold, and like to play the spot the next cold game, but its high time this site provided a thread for BOTH 'types' of weather fan/watcher... a model thread for cold evolution spotting/ramping (which should be in this thread) and an unbias md thread .

is this post off topic? not really, i mean how can model discussion or moans and ramps work properly when theres this discrepancy?

I have to agree wholeheartedly with this comment.

 

There appears to be one rule for some individuals who continue to post comments pertaining to what MIGHT happen in the weeks ahead, thus ignoring the request for comments to be kept to what the models are currently saying, and then one rule for everyone else. 

[Paul]

where can we do that then?

i mean, people who post the promis of x,y,z happening (feeding the frenzied mob) are held in high esteem by the fans of, but are not held to account when it invariably doesnt happen.

those posts might not break any rules, and are largely well constructed and make sense, but focusing on one aspect of what might happen (obviously the coldest possibility) is misleading to the rest of viewers who want a realistic idea of what might lie ahead. or dont the netweather admin team care about accuracy as long as they get page hits?  ive nothing against people who like cold, and like to play the spot the next cold game, but its high time this site provided a thread for BOTH 'types' of weather fan/watcher... a model thread for cold evolution spotting/ramping (which should be in this thread) and an unbias md thread .

is this post off topic? not really, i mean how can model discussion or moans and ramps work properly when theres this discrepancy?

There's a difference between disagreeing with a point someone makes within the context of the discussion and slagging people off personally for making/agreeing with that point. So you're welcome to put an opposing view across but not as a personal attack which doesn't actually have any views about the models, any info to back it up and just reads as you (or anyone else) whining about other members.

 

And the phrase held to account is a bit over the top by the way - it's a discussion forum, why do people need to be held to account for sharing their opinions? Obviously anyone reading is welcome to judge how much notice they take of any given post, but I think you're maybe getting too carried away if you're expecting there to be some sort of shaming of people just for voicing what turns out to be an incorrect opinion on a forum!

[Paul]

I have to agree wholeheartedly with this comment.

 

There appears to be one rule for some individuals who continue to post comments pertaining to what MIGHT happen in the weeks ahead, thus ignoring the request for comments to be kept to what the models are currently saying, and then one rule for everyone else. 

 

I've not seen any posts which are as you suggest - there are posts which are 'reading between the lines' of what the models are showing to look further ahead or to perhaps look at where the models may not be quite right currently, but there's nothing wrong with that. If there were, we may as well just have one person posting every day with a factual run-down of what the models show, it's a discussion forum, opinions around the subject are the point - you and anyone else are welcome to make them, so long as they're actually about the topic in hand and not just digs at the people who's opinions you may not agree with.

[Average Joe]

Then perhaps one of your colleagues on the hosting team must have been mistaken when he posted this yesterday, which I would suggest continues to be ignored? I agree completely that it's a discussion forum, but part of meaningful discussion is the ability to disagree. I shall finish by suggesting that from an outsiders perspective it would appear that some individuals get a longer lead when it comes to which thread they post their comments that's all I'm saying. 

 

Not wishing to stifle discussion but let us remember this thread is about current models and what they are showing.
One or two posts seem to be drifting into the realms of Winter forecasting/hopes.
Those views can be expressed in the many other threads that we have running.

[Paul]

Then perhaps one of your colleagues on the hosting team must have been mistaken when he posted this yesterday, which I would suggest continues to be ignored? I agree completely that it's a discussion forum, but part of meaningful discussion is the ability to disagree. I shall finish by suggesting that from an outsiders perspective it would appear that some individuals get a longer lead when it comes to which thread they post their comments that's all I'm saying. 

 

Not wishing to stifle discussion but let us remember this thread is about current models and what they are showing.

One or two posts seem to be drifting into the realms of Winter forecasting/hopes.

Those views can be expressed in the many other threads that we have running.

 

No, not at all - you're just reading it entirely out of context. The posts the moderator was talking about were actually talking about hoping it may be x or y this winter, or talking about things like december 2010 which is clearly well out of the remit of the models. That's very different to someone who's viewing what's in the models, drawing opinions based on the output and discussing them in the thread - which everyone is welcome to do. 

[mushymanrob]

There's a difference between disagreeing with a point someone makes within the context of the discussion and slagging people off personally for making/agreeing with that point. So you're welcome to put an opposing view across but not as a personal attack which doesn't actually have any views about the models, any info to back it up and just reads as you (or anyone else) whining about other members.

 

And the phrase held to account is a bit over the top by the way - it's a discussion forum, why do people need to be held to account for sharing their opinions? Obviously anyone reading is welcome to judge how much notice they take of any given post, but I think you're maybe getting too carried away if you're expecting there to be some sort of shaming of people just for voicing what turns out to be an incorrect opinion on a forum!

 

indeed 'held to account' wasnt the best phrase to use.

i think the problem is that the cold bias and praise of relating posts give the wrong impression to the casual observer who doesnt have sufficient knowlege to determine who is posting realistically. when 'big gun a' posts 'theres cold coming if this that the other happens' and gets 50 odd 'likes' the casual observer reads that as a 'given'.

those of us who want a realistic view, just wont get it.