Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

i for one have enjoyed this autumns weather so far....its been near perfect. for once ive not had to, nor will i this week (the last week of my main season) have to scrape ice off my van before i can work, nor horrid wet cold condensation which has been rare. this breezy mild dry weather has stopped alot of dew too, so from a work out in it perspective its been great!

of course itll get colder, tbh im half expecting this pattern to be replaced by a lengthy cold one which might suit some. but thats a hunch, its not based on science and might well be wrong.

[snow freak]

winter couldn't possibly be as bad this year as it was last year....can it?  oh i forget, this is the UK, so could happen quite readily.  I live in hope that this winter will at least give us one or two cold snowy periods though.  I was born in the wrong country for snow and cold obviously. 

[Tony27]

it might be far worse than last year it could be milder and drier this winter, imagine it being between 7c to 15c every day in winter,

 

although it is still only october im beginning to get annoyed now i want to see some chilly/cold weather in November but there is no sign of any cold synoptics on the models

 

it's 19c right now which is about 7c above average, we certainly won't see temps 7c below average in late april, yet people moan about how this country is cold/cool for most of the year, it's the biggest myth in history

Edited October 27, 2014 by Tony27

[MR EXTREMES]

summer sun post recently about the met office ideas about this winter what aload of rubbish most depressing post read on net weather for months.

i for one hope there wrong.

[snow freak]

it might be far worse than last year it could be milder and drier this winter, imagine it being between 7c to 15c every day in winter,

 

although it is still only october im beginning to get annoyed now i want to see some chilly/cold weather in November but there is no sign of any cold synoptics on the models

 

it's 19c right now which is about 7c above average, we certainly won't see temps 7c below average in late april, yet people moan about how this country is cold/cool for most of the year, it's the biggest myth in history

i suppose yes it could be worse than last year.  the positives about that would be less heating costs, but then again i would rather pay the heating costs and have some cold and snow during the winter than just boring mild mush.  we might as well be living on the equator in this country.

[Barry12]

I WANT TOO SEE SOME BLOCKING THE OPI SAID SO

[Chris K]

it might be far worse than last year it could be milder and drier this winter, imagine it being between 7c to 15c every day in winter,

 

although it is still only october im beginning to get annoyed now i want to see some chilly/cold weather in November but there is no sign of any cold synoptics on the models

 

it's 19c right now which is about 7c above average, we certainly won't see temps 7c below average in late april, yet people moan about how this country is cold/cool for most of the year, it's the biggest myth in history

 

Uhhh endless days of grey skies and temps of 7-15 degrees....stuff of nightmares 

Edited October 27, 2014 by Chris K

[snow freak]

Uhhh endless days of grey skies and temps of 7-15 degrees....stuff of nightmares 

i wholeheartedly agree.

[Eugene]

it might be far worse than last year it could be milder and drier this winter, imagine it being between 7c to 15c every day in winter,

 

although it is still only october im beginning to get annoyed now i want to see some chilly/cold weather in November but there is no sign of any cold synoptics on the models

 

it's 19c right now which is about 7c above average, we certainly won't see temps 7c below average in late april, yet people moan about how this country is cold/cool for most of the year, it's the biggest myth in history

 

 

I'm annoyed too, not that I want weather that cold in late October I just want temps around average for the time of year and nights around 5C or lower, its definitely not a cool country anymore, I think the warmth is totally out of control for us and that temp records warm ones will be broken regularly in the next 50 years.

[Dancerwithwings]

But of course, if the temperatures were 7C below average, both daytime and night, I'd assume there would be next to nobody moaning at all, and the one or two that were would get lynched by everyone else.

Wait till the snow is in the forecast, "the one or two that were would get lynched" just because they might happen to mention they don't like cold & snow... Poor buggers!

[Bradowl]

If I remember right October last year was on the cold side and we ended up with a Snow free winter, over years I've noticed that if we have a warm/mild autumn we end up with cold winter. 

 

Apart from a few short cold snaps I'm expecting it to be like this right up to Christmas then we'll see some proper wintry stuff in New Year. 

[knocker]

They employ sniffer dogs successfully in many fields I was wondering if there was a place for them to sniff out 24 hour 'cold snaps'. It save much time scouring the model runs. Just a thought.

Edited October 27, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

Uhhh endless days of grey skies and temps of 7-15 degrees....stuff of nightmares 

For who?

Cold bias here sucks, thankfully in the real world most prefer warmth to cold.

Id be happy for a winter of 7-15c, id hate another 63.

[sundog]

18c today,low of 14c last night- for late October thats rotten. Whats going on with our Autumns? The season is dying slowly but surely it seems to me. The warm airmasses are winning out most of the time during Autumns nowadays. What happened to the odd short Northerly blast during Autumn as a kinda little taster of winter etc- these seem to be getting more and more rare.

I usually love this time of year but its been ruined for me by this dire crap.

[mushymanrob]

But of course, if the temperatures were 7C below average, both daytime and night, I'd assume there would be next to nobody moaning at all, and the one or two that were would get lynched by everyone else.

But of course they would, youre not supposed to dislike cold here.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Although I am keen to see this winter develop into a cold and snowy one I remain cautious, there are hints from reading posts and viewing models of November delivering something cold,however it's very much out of a reliable time frame (again). Last year gave continued false hope (say no more). The overall pattern is exciting though with lots of signals for potential Blocking, OPI a like.

[mushymanrob]

Anyway i fail to understand why some are moaning that its not very cool yet. The usual suspects would be moaning if it was average, theyd still want it colder.

Be alittle more patient, it WILL get colder soon.

[Yarmy]

For who?

Cold bias here sucks, thankfully in the real world most prefer warmth to cold.

Id be happy for a winter of 7-15c, id hate another 63.

 

Is that true though, Mushy? Anecdotally, I've found people like "seasonal" weather more than anything else. Mostly though, I think your average punter just doesn't care all that much.

 

What's undeniable is that this forum is an order of magnitude busier during the winter months and it's certainly very biased towards cold. Not that there's much of that showing in the models at the moment. A brief perusal shows a series of brief PM incursions followed by collapsing ridges. Until the heights over Europe retreat, I can't see any significant cold for a while.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Yarmy

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Low single figures by day sub zero by night!! Takes a lot for this down South but I am confident we are in for a cold one.. Blocking from early to mid December please

[DAVID SNOW]

Anyway i fail to understand why some are moaning that its not very cool yet. The usual suspects would be moaning if it was average, theyd still want it colder.

Be alittle more patient, it WILL get colder soon.

 

I think some are 'moaning' because this summer warmth just goes on and on, its nearly November but day after day the south is still having temps close to 20 degrees,as for me I would love some average temps with  a little frost and fog thrown in for good measure.

[lindy2222]

I was wondering if any of you guys are aware of chemtrails and the engineering of weather ...........by other means .....i expect you are .........whats your  thoughts on it....

[Yarmy]

I was wondering if any of you guys are aware of chemtrails and the engineering of weather ...........by other means .....i expect you are .........whats your  thoughts on it....

 

My thought is that it's tin foil hat nonsense that's got nothing to do with weather models.

[mushymanrob]

Is that true though, Mushy? Anecdotally, I've found people like "seasonal" weather more than anything else. Mostly though, I think your average punter just doesn't care all that much.

 

What's undeniable is that this forum is an order of magnitude busier during the winter months and it's certainly very biased towards cold. Not that there's much of that showing in the models at the moment. A brief perusal shows a series of brief PM incursions followed by collapsing ridges. Until the heights over Europe retreat, I can't see any significant cold for a while.

I meet alot of people, very few like snow and cold. This weather is being enjoyed by all i meet. Family, freinds, customers, fellow detectorists, gardeners/outdoor workers.

I was astounded to discover on weather forums the liking to fever level, cold. I still dont understand it.

[phil nw.]

let's try to include some chat about the charts in any posts.

Thanks all.

Edited October 27, 2014 by phil nw.

[Tony27]

Anyway i fail to understand why some are moaning that its not very cool yet. The usual suspects would be moaning if it was average, theyd still want it colder.

Be alittle more patient, it WILL get colder soon.

yeah of course you wouldn't moan if we hadn't had a warm spell by late april and temps were still in single figures? 

 

you have to remember that average in November is still not cold enough so people would want it colder than average, but average temps in may are fine as long as the sun is out