Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snowice]

Well if there was a song to describe the current model output Bonnie Tyler turn round comes to mind?I do love this site just as you think the alantic is going to break through ecm says no thanks and the drama continues.

[Mapantz]

Well if there was a song to describe the current model output Bonnie Tyler turn round comes to mind?I do love this site just as you think the alantic is going to break through ecm says no thanks and the drama continues.

It doesnt completely say no. It also looks increasingly wetter..

[Stuie]

Time to come out of hibernation, spurred on by the snowfall in Buffalo etc and a damn fine Shannon entropy situation. Many people have said this winter is a completely different setup from last. Ermm the US getting frigid cold blasts already and potentially another wet fest in the UK seems pretty similar to me. Another SSW happening too!, struggling to keep the excitement held in.

 

There you go, a negative and moan post in the right forum. Nice to be back ;-)

[alex12]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-most-terrifying-pictures-of-the-snow-in-buffalo?bftw=main 

 

If only the Uk was like this  

[mushymanrob]

Well if there was a song to describe the current model output Bonnie Tyler turn round comes to mind?I do love this site just as you think the alantic is going to break through ecm says no thanks and the drama continues.

Turn around? You mean total eclipse of the heart!

[shaky]

Some good news from the MOGREPS:

@EssexWeather: Met Office ensemble (MOGREPS) hinting towards the end of the run that high pressure may end up in a favourable position for cold.

https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/535160974429671425

Scotland the initial beneficiary.

expect fergie to mention this in his next update!! Thank god its showing a possibility of cold!! Last year mogreps wasn't really going for any cold and am sure it was proved right pretty much every update!! This is a brilliant update for cold lovers!!

[Dancerwithwings]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-most-terrifying-pictures-of-the-snow-in-buffalo?bftw=main 

 

If only the Uk was like this

Great find, them pictures are just amazing Give's ya some prospective on how deep some of the falls are in the US atm.

JEALOUS, JEALOUS, JEALOUS!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Turn around? You mean total eclipse of the heart!

Correct title, but surely "Holding out for a hero" is better in this case relating to cold 

The models are seemingly heading in a better direction to as they were a day or so back. Of course the caveat is that they can easily go the other way.

[Dancerwithwings]

Correct title, but surely "Holding out for a hero" is better in this case relating to cold 

The models are seemingly heading in a better direction to as they were a day or so back. Of course the caveat is that they can easily go the other way.

Lets hope we all start singing (You Have Placed A Chill In My Heart - Eurthymics) come on ECM do your worst BEST

[Hocus Pocus]

This is neither a moan nor ramp so I guess it's a bit of banter. Some fantastic discussions going on in the model thread on whether or not the trough disrupts enough in our favour  ( for cold that is ) personally I feel this could go either way and we either end up with heights backing Westwards or we end up stuck under the damn trough, or a third and my favourite we remain the same.

[bobbydog]

Is it just me, or has november seemed to last about 6 weeks so far with still 2 weeks to go? By that point, the models will then hint at the proper cold spell, due to arrive at the start of december which is only 3 weeks away in 14 days time according to the GFS (or 2 weeks if you are watching the GFS parallel) however the ECM has the block being pushed so far west that it ends up east, with the atlantic ending up in siberia....

Anyone fancy a pint?....

[knocker]

I think a spot of research is called for to see  if there is a strong correlation between increasing PTSD among members at winters end. Or perhaps even a signal leading up to winter.

[Mapantz]

Some good news from the MOGREPS:

@EssexWeather: Met Office ensemble (MOGREPS) hinting towards the end of the run that high pressure may end up in a favourable position for cold.

https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/535160974429671425

Scotland the initial beneficiary.

I had a feeling this might make it here. I'm glad Ian F came on to issue caution. That ramp is bordeline dexpress.. That 'company' are to be taken with a pinch of salt, as they've been in trouble in the past.

Sorry mods. I thought I'd pasted this in the moans/banter thread. Please feel free to move it.

Edited November 20, 2014 by Mapantz

[knocker]

One thing I would like to say in passing, amidst all the badinage, is hats off to Gibby who produces a very readable synopsis every day that must take much time and effort. And as far as I know he is not on the list to be beatified.

[Hocus Pocus]

One thing I would like to say in passing, amidst all the badinage, is hats off to Gibby who produces a very readable synopsis every day that must take much time and effort. And as far as I know he is not on the list to be beatified.

+1 knocker. His is the first post I read for a balanced view on what the models are showing.

[Mapantz]

As a director of 'that company' I would be interested in some actual evidence that we have been 'in trouble' of some kind as I have no knowledge of this - perhaps you could message me of this, thank you :-)

More than happy to. I think it would be wise, I don't want to be pasting the emails I had from the MetOffice, here. :-)

[MidnightSnow]

One thing I would like to say in passing, amidst all the badinage, is hats off to Gibby who produces a very readable synopsis every day that must take much time and effort. And as far as I know he is not on the list to be beatified.

Although I'm new and struggle to understand his analysis, I always enjoy his bolded summary. I get the impression he has neither a cold or mild bias.

Don't get me wrong, I love a cold ramper (I'm one of them lol!) but it's good to have a dose of reality at times.

[David Morse]

So wet and changeable and stormy....I have my t-shirt on.

[pip22]

Nick Miller from the BBC just said to the news: ''the Easterlies or the Northerlies is not coming our way very soon in the next 6-10 days''.  

 

I bet Nick learnt it from the UKMO.

Edited November 20, 2014 by pip22

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nick Miller from the BBC just said to the news: ''the Easterlies or the Northerlies is not coming our way very soon in the next 6-10 days''.  

That's more or less what we are all looking at, certainly no chance in 6.

 

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

well accurweather.com has just tweeted.

shift in the weather pattern in early dec to bring relief to much of the us being blasted by bitter air.

 

so will this be our turn for a cool down.

Midwest, East: Winter to Arrive Gradually After November's Arctic Blasts

November 20, 2014; 3:51 AM

A shift in the weather pattern in early December will deliver some relief for the 200 million people across the United States being blasted by bitter air.

Though winter is certainly on its way, the change in seasons will become more gradual for areas like the Midwest and Northeast in the beginning of December.

The recent cold blast, which is more typical of January than November, can be linked, in part, to the significant cold air and snow stretching across Siberia.

The polar flow that came from the cold air building over Siberia's snowpack sent a frigid air mass southward, according to AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.

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"The snowpack into northern Canada was impressive, too, so it wasn't able to modify the temperatures. The cold air just kept coming," he said.

"It set the stage for significant, record-breaking cold in the United States, about three weeks ahead of schedule."

In the South this week, the cold sent Atlanta's highs into only the upper 30s. The city's lows fell into the lower 20s, a 20-plus-degree departure from normal.

In the Midwest, Chicago's highs reached only the mid-20s with lows in the teens. Departures from normal ranged from 15 to 20 degrees.



A period of relief is in store as the cold weather pattern breaks down near Thanksgiving, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures will temporarily rebound to springlike levels, before turning cold again at the middle of next week.

In early December, however, a milder flow of Pacific air will replace the long-standing frigid air masses. The air will be more concentrated from the Pacific than from the pole, which will have a big impact on temperatures across the United States, Pastelok said.

"The weather will revert to a normal pattern near the Arctic."

The lack of Arctic intrusions will allow temperatures to climb from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Carolinas.

At times, temperatures in Chicago will hover 4-7 degrees above normal with highs in the low to mid-40s.




Farther east, in New York City, temperatures in early December will run 4-8 degrees above normal.

"This warmer air will arrive in time for the first weekend of December in the Midwest and East," Pastelok said.

Warmer-than-normal water temperatures off the Eastern Seaboard will reinforce the higher air temperatures but could alter the track of storms this winter, pushing them farther inland, Pastelok said.

For the winter season in general, this will allow for more changeover systems along the I-95 corridor, while the bulk of the snow will center on the I-81 corridor and westward.

[mushymanrob]

One thing I would like to say in passing, amidst all the badinage, is hats off to Gibby who produces a very readable synopsis every day that must take much time and effort. And as far as I know he is not on the list to be beatified.

 

he will when he predicts cold!

completely agree, tbh if your short on time and want a realistic post, gibbys is all you need.

lol the ficklety of members continues... suddenly, a little mentioned 'MOGREPS' is flavour of the month because a POSSIBLE cold spell MIGHT materialise in fi. lol... seriously, even I could predict that !!!, (who couldnt?) because i know from experience that as long as theres a stubborn high somewhere to our east/northeast at this time of the year, theres a possibility for a cold/very cold evolution. the very fact that despite numerous synoptic predictions that itll decline/drift eastwards have been proven wrong, makes me think that something rather cold could emerge .

as i see it, the very cold air is being locked up by a hefty ridge southwards from the centre of the high. its preventing sliders from getting too far eastwards and the outlook into next week appears to remain the same, atlantic lows stalling somewhere over/near the uk, the uk being the classic east/west battleground. what those looking for cold needs is presure dropping over central/southern europe whilst the main high holds tight in the north.

of course id prefer a big fat bartlett until march lol ... but theres no sign of that

Edited November 20, 2014 by mushymanrob

[MP-R]

Despite a more unsettled outlook across the models, none paint a full on zonal picture just yet - more a low-ridge-low-ridge scenario so quite different to last winter. What this means is that any cold is likely to come in the form of overnight frosts and lingering fog during the day but there certainly doesn't seem to be an Atlantic train setting up.

 

In fact, the latter frames of the GFS (albeit FI) show a weaker vortex with amplification upstream. If these signals continue then there may be something more seasonal into week 2 of December. Of course, all a long way off and a lot of water to pass under the bridge first.

[knocker]

US snowfall and will it impact the UK?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/us-snowfall-and-will-it-impact-the-uk/

[Barry12]

4 years ago today and the ECM 12z was looking a lot more interesting,

 

Day 6:

 

Day 7:

 

 

Day 8:

 

 

Day 9:

 

 

Day 10:

 

 

Compare that to the ECM 12z tonight

Edited November 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime