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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 31/8/14 Onwards.

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Small progress but both the GFS and Euro break down at day 9.

 

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Just posting this as I thought it quite an interesting temp distribution.

 

 

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Looking at the models this evening it looks like the attempt from the atlantic early next week is looking in doubt now aswell!!comparing the evening runs to the morning update its clear to see this high pressure aint goin anywhere and is gona be stubborn!!

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Yes shaky, even the GFS is delaying it this evening- in this sort of setup I've noticed that the breakdown often keeps getting put back and the Atlantic depressions end up further west as we get closer to the time. The ECM shows no real hint of a breakdown until late next week and even at the end of the run it seems any unsettled spell would likely only be transitory.

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Yes shaky, even the GFS is delaying it this evening- in this sort of setup I've noticed that the breakdown often keeps getting put back and the Atlantic depressions end up further west as we get closer to the time. The ECM shows no real hint of a breakdown until late next week and even at the end of the run it seems any unsettled spell would likely only be transitory.

it really is quite an amazing spell of dry warm weather for autumn!!just gona take a look at the ecm mean but I doubt that's gona show anything different!!
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Tonight's GEFS 12z mean shows warm anticyclonic weather lasting well into early october across the south & east, mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds with temperatures into the low 20's celsius but as time goes on, probably an increasing risk of overnight fog patches and single digits celsius minima, eventually the high bringing all the fine weather drifts away further east and the atlantic tries to make inroads southeastwards with temps by day slowly drifting down but it's a very slow process. More unsettled atlantic weather with stronger winds for the far northwest of the BI with temperatures closer to average.

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Tonight's anomalies are still similar but the HP in North America and to the east appears to be lessening in intensity and much the same applies to the mid Atlantic trough, This the seems to tend to a more zonal flow between low pressure over Greenland and HP pushing south in mid Atlantic with a weak jet between systems. As shown in the later ecm surface chart. This would seem to indicate periods of settled/unsettled weather in the UK of no great extremes and temps around average.A not unseasonable scenario.

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Edited by knocker
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And once again compared to yesterday mornings runs the atlantic is held futher north and west on this mornings ukmo amd gfs!!!!!infact its reinvigorated as we head into early october!!!no end in sight to this bone dry weather!!

Edited by shaky
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!!!no end in sight to this bone dry weather!!

It wasn't bone dry last week, we had all those thunderstorms, it hasn't been bone dry this week either and next week won't be bone dry, I expect at least some rain in places with a warm airflow sourced from southern europe / north africa.

Edited by Frosty.
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It wasn't bone dry last week, we had all those thunderstorms and next week won't be bone dry either, I expect at least some rain in places with a warm airflow.

oopsy I used the incorrect term!!!lets change it to generally dry with maybe a few showers here and there!!!ecm out now and high pressure rules till the end of the run with no end in sight!!!
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The ECM ops for next is basically sticking with HP dominating and the low pressure confined to the west and north. A few sample charts.

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Edited by knocker
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After a blink and you'll miss it day of cooler air for the north ECM shows it turning very warm later next week with the 850's as high as +15 for a time

 

ECU0-168.GIF?25-12ECU0-192.GIF?25-12ECU0-216.GIF?25-12ECU0-240.GIF?25-12

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It wasn't bone dry last week, we had all those thunderstorms, it hasn't been bone dry this week either and next week won't be bone dry, I expect at least some rain in places with a warm airflow sourced from southern europe / north africa.

 

come on old chap, most of us saw very little rain and the bit that did fall has dried up within hours. its certainly 'bone dry' here mate! and looking at the current outputs theres very little chance of much, if any, of things getting wet. with any rain soon drying up.

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come on old chap, most of us saw very little rain and the bit that did fall has dried up within hours. its certainly 'bone dry' here mate! and looking at the current outputs theres very little chance of much, if any, of things getting wet. with any rain soon drying up.

hello mushy old chap, there were a lot of storms last week across england and wales, try telling those who had flash flooding that it was bone dry and I don't think they would agree with you :)

 

As for the latest model output, staying on the warm side of average for the southern ½ of the uk, mainly dry and bright but cooler and breezier with some rain to the west and north, the south and east enjoying mostly summery weather for another 10 days at least with temperatures frequently into the low 20's celsius..

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hello mushy old chap, there were a lot of storms last week across england and wales, try telling those who had flash flooding that it was bone dry and I don't think they would agree with you :)

 

As for the latest model output, staying on the warm side of average for the southern ½ of the uk, mainly dry and bright but cooler and breezier with some rain to the west and north, the south and east enjoying mostly summery weather for another 10 days at least with temperatures frequently into the low 20's celsius..

 

oh i agree that some had alot of rain last week, and the term 'bone dry' wont apply to them. i guess it all depends upon how widespread they were, i think most of us lost out and are still dry?

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UKMO shows the high persisting well into next week, though the north west could see some early next week along with some stronger winds, by mid week it settles down widely with it remaining warm by day

 

U96-21UK.GIF?25-18U120-21UK.GIF?25-18U144-21UK.GIF?25-18

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The presence of the European blocking continuing into next week,on the afternoons models.

 

UKMO T120hrs.

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GFS T120hrs.

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The UK in a wedge of warmth whilst the developing  Arctic cold goes into N.Canada and Russia.

A deep looking Icelandic low being deflected away to the north as it eventually rides over our block.

The jet not yet strong enough it seems to push through for now so the relatively quiet and dry Autumn looks like going into the new month.

 

 

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What a beauty of a chart for the 4th of october from the ecm. ............

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Edited by shaky
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The ECM mean at day 10 indicated high pressure will likely still be in charge across the southern half of the UK. Further north the Atlantic may make inroads but how far any cooler and unsettled conditions spread south remains uncertain.

 

Upper temperatures look more reminiscent of late June

 

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The ECM mean at day 10 indicated high pressure will likely still be in charge across the southern half of the UK. Further north the Atlantic may make inroads but how far any cooler and unsettled conditions spread south remains uncertain.

 

Upper temperatures look more reminiscent of late June

 

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thats a pretty darn good mean chart for high pressure lovers!!!to have a mean chart that shows pressure of 1020mb at that range is pretty impressive!!!good agreement there on pressure being very high over or just to south of the united kingdom!!

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Really good agreement between the ECM and GFS way out at T+168, thats as far as they agree mind... GFS tends to go a bit more amplified afterwards whilst the ECM wants to keep a flatter jet darting oop north... either way low pressure being kept at bay up through the GIN corridor.

 

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Its not very often you see such agreement between the main models at this range 

 

A very stubborn HP thats simply refusing to budge for the time being !!  CFS anomolie charts have been plugging for the most of September that October would be mostly HP dominated... however of late they are trending for lower heights over the Uk, so i suspect a month of 2 halves, Will have to wait and see :)

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