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Model Output Discussion - 31/8/14 Onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Lets keep to discussing the Model Output please, There's other threads to discuss thoughts on Winter.

Many Thanks, PM.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A couple of posts regarding Winter prospects have been moved here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/

 

Let's keep to model output views in here please all.

 

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM ops anomaly has moved the HP east of the UK by the weekend so quite warm in the UK particularly in the SE. Is that the PV I see. :shok: or just a little ECM foible?

 

About time this chart loading was sorted.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I made a post that a big pattern change was on the cards the other day and how wrong was I? :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:  The models then were signalling that, and now they are showing some quiet settled conditions especially for southern parts of the uk.  The signal is that for now, but the awful output from the models over recent weeks does not compound me to make any accurate forecast in the days ahead. A BIG pattern change  will occur, its not about "If" but "When"......

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the week ahead starts with high pressure directly over the UK, the high gradually retreats towards the Azores and lower heights to the nw spread further south meaning northern UK becomes unsettled and windier but the further south you go looks least affected and after briefly cooling down, starts to warm up again. All in all its a change to more normal late September conditions but with the SE in particular having a lot of fine and warm weather with only occasional rain since any fronts pushing into the south will weaken.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Subtle changes this morning in FI from the GFS. The London pressure chart shows transient short wave troughs having more impact further south after D10:

 

post-14819-0-17564000-1411283208_thumb.g

 

The hi-res runs are more keen than the mean which stays around 1025mb till D15. See if this develops.

 

ECM at D10 holding onto HP: post-14819-0-94505300-1411283374_thumb.g  GFS at D10: post-14819-0-74215600-1411283413_thumb.p  GEM: post-14819-0-03406600-1411283426_thumb.g

 

This is the first clear sign of uncertainty in the models with ECM, GFS and GEM handling the next wave from the Atlantic differently. The AO index also showing spread for that period so pure guesswork at this range as to which model is on it's game though the status quo is probably the most likely based on the last few weeks:

 

post-14819-0-31458500-1411283693_thumb.g

 

CFS suggesting October may continue with the current pattern of HP from the Azores moving NE through the UK, with maybe within the phasing, some incursions from the Atlantic:

 

post-14819-0-55599200-1411283848_thumb.p

 

The rest of September still looking relatively settled.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

What I'm finding hard to predict from current output is cloud/sunshine proportions for later in the coming week and next weekend. Cloud levels would affect temperatures, so thoughts on this anyone? I'm thinking more Southern areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As cloud amounts depend on a number of factors, not least the exact surface analysis at the time, any predictions seven days in advance for a particular area are fraught with major uncertainties. It's really not surprising you find it hard to predict WoW as so would the professionals.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO initially shows a NW'ly flow for the UK which will keep temperatures fresher than some had over the past week cloud amounts are always hard to predict but we should see a fair amount of bright weather with a bit Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday looks the most likely for these in England then by Friday its northern Scotland which looks most prone to rain

 

Thursday see's a NW'ly flow over the UK but looking out to the west we can see high pressure is close by

 

U96-21UK.GIF?21-06

 

Into Friday and the NW'ly flow is replace by a warmer westerly flow meaning a lot of cloud is likely to plague the UK with the best of any sunshine likely to be found in the east this time, northern Scotland looks most prone to some rain whilst elsewhere the most some would see would be drizzle from and thicker cloud

 

U120-21UK.GIF?21-06

 

Into Saturday and high pressure and westerly winds remain with us

 

U144-21UK.GIF?21-06

 

The only 850's which have updated this morning are at t144

 

UW144-7.GIF?21-06

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows westerly winds for Thursday the far north looks most prone to some rain / showers with the south always driest, warmer air slowly moves in from the west

 

U96-21UK.GIF?21-18UW96-7.GIF?21-18

 

By Friday high pressure is building in strongly for the south northern Scotland remains prone to some rain / showers, no 850's available at the time of posting

 

U120-21UK.GIF?21-18

 

Into Saturday and high pressure is back in control for all the UK, +8 850's for large parts of England and Wales

 

U144-21UK.GIF?21-18UW144-7.GIF?21-18

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

People have referred to ECM charts but these are not updating on Netweather - what other sources are there for ECM please?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

People have referred to ECM charts but these are not updating on Netweather - what other sources are there for ECM please?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Cheers Gavin somehow I was not expecting it to be working on Wetter either so never thought to try..

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

What I'm finding hard to predict from current output is cloud/sunshine proportions for later in the coming week and next weekend. Cloud levels would affect temperatures, so thoughts on this anyone? I'm thinking more Southern areas.

Latest gfs shows the west and north more picticularly prone to cloud and rain after tomorrow' the south and east best for drier ,brighter

Conditions. So feeling rather cool in the cloud and wind, feeling rather muggy at times in the southeast quadrant of the uk especially southeast England.........

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

GFS is showing the pattern much flatter so any belts of rain will be over more parts of the UK whereas the UKMO eventually has the jet stream buckling well to the North leaving virtually the whole of the UK dry and more than likely to be quite sunny. 

 

Pretty much typical September weather but there is signs that the weather may turn more settled for larger parts of the UK. 

 

At this time of year with the Arctic cooling now and any tropical storms around, modelling is going to be more difficult but there is certainly no trend for any proper Atlantic wet and windy weather just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Just quoting something of considerable importance in using 500mb anomaly threads from the, as usual, first class summation and suggestions for the 1-15 day outlook from Vorticity

 

The positive anomalies over Europe have become even more pronounced. It is quite unusual to see anomalies becoming stronger in longer range.

 

It is not something that we often see. Being an 'average' idea of the 500mb flow and anomaly values for +/- at this range, even more so than the 6-10 day time scale the charts will usually show a sort of 'watered down' version of the 6-10. That is unless at that later period the anomaly models are starting to see a pattern change.

 

well worth remembering for those who do look at the 3 main anomaly charts, or any of them for that matter, NAEFS for example.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Thank John. I noticed this last night and had noted you  had mentioned this a few days ago. No change anytime soon?

 

Back to the mundane and what difference a movement north or south can make in a N/S split.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Horribly warm and humid run for the south east from the GFS, notably at day 4 and 9.. Lots of ensemble support for sustained warmth.

 

Rtavn963.gif

 

Rtavn2163.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Tonight's anomalies still with the same pattern HP North America, trough western Atlantic, HP UK with slight differences in orientation. The jet swinging around the major systems and north of the UK. Looking further ahead no noticeable change, A continuation of this great weather.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Although the models show predominantly dry and warm for the next two weeks, are anyone else's eyes drawn to the storms coming off Iceland rushing into Norway from T102 onwards on GFS? The Atlantic certainly isn't quiet, it's just being deflected away from us. Now it's up and running, I doubt it will stay away from us for long - so I'm guessing we could have our first winter storm within 15 days.

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