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skifreak

Scotland #IndyRef Weather

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As we move into September, the date of the Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th September will come into range of the GFS forecast model in a couple of days. The trend in the ensembles look to have been for below average temps mid Sept, but the last chart on this mornings GFS has a stonking high pressure centred over Scotland on 16th Sept.

post-4009-0-85653900-1409481346_thumb.gi

Met office extended outlook:

During mid to late September most regions can expect to see periods of fine weather, with some warm sunshine at times

What will the weather be on the day, and with the only poll in the last 2 1/2 weeks showing a halving of the no lead compared to the previous poll by Survation - things could be close enough that the weather on the day may actually play a part in determining the outcome of this historic vote?

Would a warm and sunny day boost a feel good factor (help yes) and encourage turnout - would the later favour either side? Is there any historical evidence to the potential effect of weather on polling day, that might guide either side whether to pray for a warm sunny day or start doing rain dances!?

Edited by skifreak

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The middle of referendum day is now within reach of the GFS:

post-4009-0-51512700-1409695924_thumb.gi

High pressure in total control on that chart - will it be showing the same in 6 hours time? Of course there is not just the potential impact from the weather on turnout, but weather conditions could well impact on the speed of the count as some of the remotest polling station's ballot boxes are shifted by air and sea to the regional counting centres.

If it's very tight on the night it could come down to the last few council areas where the weather could have a real impact on the speed of the count and thus have potential to add even more drama to the historic occasion.

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Looks like there will be a run of several days at least of fine and warm weather with High Pressure for Scotland - will it hold till the referendum?

Certainly looks like it will be a great weekend, good weather for getting out and canvassing and campaigning. With more people than ever in history on the Scottish electoral register, anyone care to take a guess or a reasoned case for potential impact of the weather next Thursday on voter turnout and potentially the result?

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