iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks for your detailed response Swebby

I now understand the positioning of the cams

MIA

[Rustynailer]

Seems to be possible glacial flooding starting, Not sure. Bada 2 cam.. I have marked the shot   

[swebby]

As an aside to the wondeful updates on this thread which is truely fascinating. As there is more and more talk of Booom could someone outline what the consequenses might be for bad, very bad and very very bad outcomes noted in some of the posts. Many thanks and again great thread.

 

Hi JB

 

Probably best that one of the more knowledgeable (eg - john pike/rusty/brickfielder) give some views on this but my take on it is as follows. (note this is my opinion -I'm no expert)

 

Worst case scenario (very very bad)  - this is just the beginning of a prolonged event (lasts longer than a year) and a period of generally heightened activity in Iceland.  The activity so far seen around barda eventually escalates and spreads into other neighbouring systems - Grimsvotn/Askja/fissure swarms to the south and south west.  Barda, Grims and askja are all large volcanoes and have the ability to erupt in a sizeable manner, Grimsvotn like Barda is under an ice pack so would likely produce large amounts of ash.  The fissure swarm to the SW is where the laki eruptions took place, see rustys post #1020 for a comparison in size of that event to the current one!  Under this scenario the amount of gas pumped in to the atmosphere may well have a effect on weather patterns over a period of years (yep - possible snowy winters but think wash out summers and failed harvests and rising food prices).  If any of the eruptions produce ash then air travel may be disrupted and this may happen on/off over a period of months.  Economically this is a very bad outcome globally.  There would also be likely  adverse health issues for Europe due to poor air conditions.

For Iceland, things would be bleak, agriculture and infrastructure badly effected, economy probably in tatters, very serious health impacts on the population.  Events of this nature are thankfully exceptionally rare - we really really really do not want this to happen!

 

The very bad option - A very large eruption at barda/caldera collapse - think mt pinatubo and mt st helens.  Big impacts on Icelandic infrastructure and economy due to ash fall  and the likely hood (near certainty) of serious floods breaking out from the ice cap. Big health impacts on the populace.  I read somewhere that an epidemiologist is now in attendance at the Icelandic civil emergency meetings.  I would guess that is to advise on the effects of the loss of critical infrastructure and the subsequent outbreak of disease. Effects would also be felt further afield with likely impacts on air travel and maybe weather.  Wrt the mechanics of a caldera eruption (timescale etc) that needs to be explained by someone more knowledgeable than me.

 

NB - the immediate devastating effects of the above scenarios will be confined to Iceland - no need to go building a shelter if you live in north Scotland!  If you are an European farmer however, a consideration of a change of career may be a good shout. 

 

The bad option - Eruption at barda along the lines of grimsvotn in 2011 and Eyjafjallajökull 2010.  Likely disruption to air travel if the weather patterns are in the wrong place.  Serious disruption to Icelandic infrastructure from glacial floods.  Short term agricultural impacts.

 

Hopefully none of the above will happen and we end up with the best case scenario as posted by the IMO - the fissure eruption does not spread and dies out, hopefully having given us some more fantastic images before it does.

[swebby]

In addition to above - for uk impacts - see this from the british geological survey

 

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/volcanoes/LakiEruptionScenarioPlanning.html

 

The report is in the form of a link in the last section to a pdf.  It is extensive and detailed.

[jonboy]

Well without being alarmist, I will give a calmly spoken version   

 

Caldera collapse version 1 the slow collapse, lots of small eruptions out gassing and occasional travel disruption. Could go on for months, The fissure independent of the volcano will stop on its own timetable.

 

Caldera collapse version 2 the partial collapse of say one flank of the volcano down the side and through the glacier, bad glacial floods with icebergs crashing down the flood plane the size of several streets in my local town, very disruptive to air travel in the area, dangerous for Icelanders may even kill, probably over pretty quick. Though the fissure eruption would stop when it wants.

 

Caldera collapse version 3 sudden total collapse of 80 square kilometers of ice at 600m thick on average down in to the very hot magma chamber of the worlds largest stratoVolcano, extremely loud and damaging explosion, debris of which could travel over 100 miles, large 7+ mag earthquake, possible local tsunamis when the glacial floods reach the sea, maximum disruption for months as the stuff that has gone up in to the sky slowly falls out. This will kill people in Iceland.

The eruption its self would end there, but the fissure eruption will stop when it wants.

 

Version 4. No caldera collapse and the whole episode dies down, at the fissure and Badas discretion.

 

Version 5 the fissure goes on and Bada does not much at all, in 6 months we will be noticing the effects of all the SO2 loading up the atmosphere like it did with Laki eruption.

 

 

My take is version 2 with a flank collapse NE quadrant of Badabunga. 90% chance in my opinion. Has been the same for me since I noticed the ring faulting and the potential fissure undermining of Badabunga. over a week ago I think.

 

I must say we may notice the effects of this volcanic episode in the UK, but only environmentally, with dust/ash and gasses, not with direct effects of eruptions and quakes. How bad we get it is anywhere from nothing to a Laki style event.

 

Don't forget, this could all just stop and that will be the end of the matter, no body knows for sure, no scientists have ever seen this before it is new to them.

 

Here is a wiki on Laki as I mentioned this volcano and its effects http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

 

 

Somebody on another site has done a calculation of the energy released by the quakes so far in this eruptive episode, it is truly massive, the Russian Tsar Bomb was 50 megaton this episode has done 75 megaton up to now...

 

Thanks Rusty

truely interesting times ahead whichever way it goes. If she does blow big I wonder what effect it will have on the fault lines around the world and if it might trigger some really big earthquakes elsewhere time will tell

[swebby]

Someone has just pointed out a 2nd warning icon has now popped up on the IMO home page.

 

Can not see any out of the ordinary weather being forecast.

 

Edit - apparently it is likely to be for a SO2 warning.

Edited September 11, 2014 by swebby

[karyo]

Seems to be possible glacial flooding starting, Not sure. Bada 2 cam.. I have marked the shot   K112.JPG

 

It looks like the edge of the glacier to me but it is not very clear.

 

Karyo

[Rustynailer]

Thanks Rusty

truely interesting times ahead whichever way it goes. If she does blow big I wonder what effect it will have on the fault lines around the world and if it might trigger some really big earthquakes elsewhere time will tell

No problem, I only hope people in the UK don't get too worried about this, best keep an eye on it but do not worry, worrying I am afraid is likely in Iceland at the moment, I feel for those people, I hope it is lesser eruption rather than greater for their sake. But facts are facts, Bada is critically wounded underground right now, on the surface is just a large caldera that is sagging a bit...

 

It looks like the edge of the glacier to me but it is not very clear.

 

Karyo

Yes I was not sure, that is why I posted the pic.

Nice to see they got the ASK station back up and running. Another mag 4 looking at the file...

 

Lots of small very hot gas tornadoes today, here are some from a minute ago...

 

Quick look at the Auto correct map with the latest auto recorded EQ's stretching off into the distance...

 

 

Nice pic at 12:26 UK time    This person is where its at I think https://www.facebook.com/jardvis?fref=photo

 

 

Busy today already, it is not stopping at the moment.  

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

The caldera in Bardarbunga volcano could subside by hundreds of meters, say two of Iceland´s top geophysicists. The caldera has in recent days sunk by at least 20 meters, increasing the likelihood of an eruption there.

In a short article published yesterday, geophysicists Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson and Pall Einarsson at the University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences state that the subsidence in Bardarbunga makes it even harder to predict future development of events in north-western Vatnajokull glacier. A magma intrusion has migrated some 40 kilometers from beneath Bardarbunga, to the north, leading to a lava eruption north of the glacier's margin, in the lava field of Holuhraun.

The current subsidence in Bardarbunga it to date the largest such event observed in Iceland. The last known example of a caldera collapse happened in the Askja volcano system in 1875, when a large explosive eruption occurred there, causing widespread ashfall in the eastern part of Iceland and reached Scandinavia. That caldera collapse created a lake in Askja, the deepest lake in Iceland. 

However, Gudmundsson and Einarsson note that such events are well know internationally. For instance the caldera in Piton de la Fournaise volcano on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean subsided by 340 meters in 10 days in 2007, when a large eruption occured just outside the caldera itself. Other recent examples are the Fernandina caldera on the Galapagos Islands and Tolbachik on the Kamchatka peninsula

 

http://www.ruv.is/frett/subsidence-by-hundred-of-meters-possible

 

[The PIT]

Yes John it's quite clear that not all caldera collapses result in huge eruptions.

Most people in the UK aren't even aware of an eruption. I'm more interested in the gas as a prolonged eruption and a Laki effect could have serious effects on a friend of mine.

[john pike]

Thursday
11.09.2014 18:10:07 64.664 -17.390 7.5 km 3.6 99.0 7.0 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

 

just happened

 

looking at the quakes there are still deeper ones

 

feed stilll going strong

 

hi pit

 

i reckon a collapse of some kind looks more and more likely

 

the bit afterwards is anyones guess

 

re the gas

 

the longer this goes on the more concerning i feel this could be

 

how long??  no idea but no signs of it slowing down at present

 

 

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

 

i reckon the cams should look pretty again tonight

 

either the camera has moved or the activity has moved west since last night

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

funnells again :-)

 

a tip

 

if you have a main computer at home try the links above on that

 

seems a problem getting them on ipads

Edited September 11, 2014 by john pike

[Rustynailer]

Seems to be going on, todays quakes at the Bada volcano, all checked automatic to 90% subject to change by manual review.   I have only grabbed the list of the Badabunga volcano its self nothing else on the map is in the list.

 

The slow caldera collapse, discussion is on going, I have noticed comments by scientists over the past few days, first it was 18m, then over night it wen't to 20m then 22m now it has dropped a further 20m, I would say yes, the relatively slow fashion of the caldera collapse is safer slower for now if it just stops and the fissure stops erupting, problem with this whilst it is on going, is the water, in the glacial lake and the glacial melt water above that, if the caldera bottom lets in water there will most likely be an explosion, which lets in more water then, an eruption.  Askja caldera collapsed slowly after an extremity violent eruption. Bada is not erupting it is just leaking lava into a fissure next door. the potential(perhaps the wrong word as it is collapsing at the moment) serious caldera collapse in this case is before the eruption, if it does not stop collapsing it will erupt as the glacial lake will have nowhere to go but down to the hot depths, the deeper it gets before contact the larger the caliber the barrel is, just like a gun. Deeper longer more powerful.

 

I still go for flank collapse NE, but if the caldera drops deep enough before this happens then the more dangerous scenarios are within the frame of possibility.

 

It could just stop, I hope it does, it is far to dangerous a beast to wish for I think.

 

Latest picture from Mars, sorry Iceland....

 

Latest  Bada grumbles alright.

 

Looks pretty now, dangerous beasts often are   

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Freddie123]

The million dollar question is when? What will be the tipping point of no return be reached? How many more earthquakes will happen before this point is reached?

[The PIT]

The million dollar question is when? What will be the tipping point of no return be reached? How many more earthquakes will happen before this point is reached?

It's not the quakes it's if the magma supporting the caldera is removed quickly and then there's no support for magma chamber roof. At present it's sinking as the magma is withdrawn. If the magma ceases to be with drawn and more is coming up the floor will start to rise again. It's also possible magma may rise along the faults and erupt under the ice before breaking through. That would be explosive. If enough magma is erupted quicker than it can be replaced then you'll have a collapse. It could also just continue sinking slowly without anything happening.

[Rustynailer]

Some good pictures and the lava meeting the river too...http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2752299/Stunning-pictures-Bardarbunga-erupting-days-airlines-banned-flying-it.html

 

Sulfur dioxide map animation on this page is kept up to date  http://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Images/ImageLibrary/DAT_2316893.html#plume

 

Today from NASA   

 

The view from Bada 2 at 21:10 UK    Badabunga is distant right.

 

Bada 1 at 21:12 UK   

 

 

Large EQ, mag 5 at 20:55 ish Iceland time  

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

http://icelandreview.com/news/eruption

 

some bits to read

[summer fun]

i reckon the cams should look pretty again tonight

 

 

Yeah tonight and especially for the 12th/13th with a double CME expected.

 

So ill be looking for some nice Auroras as well, with the eruption in the foreground.

 

STORM WARNING (UPDATED): Among space weather forecasters, confidence is building that Earth's magnetic field will receive a double-blow from a pair of CMEs on Sept. 12th. The two storm clouds were propelled in our direction by explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158 on Sept. 9th and 10th, respectively. Strong geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 12th and 13th as a result of the consecutive impacts. Sky watchers, even those at mid-latitudes, should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead. Aurora alerts: text, voice

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th at 17:46 UT, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. A flash of ultraviolet radiation from the explosion (movie) ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, disturbing HF radio communications for more than an hour. More importantly, the explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory photographed the expanding cloud:

 

This extract is from SpaceWeather.com

Edited September 11, 2014 by summer fun

[KyleHenry]

2014-09-11

19:57:16 UTC M5.1 ICELAND

06min ago Depth:10 Km

224 km E of Reykjavík, Iceland / pop: 113,906 / local time: 19:57:16.6 2014-09-11

[KyleHenry]

Not 100% checked but looks like location in the Bardarbunga Caldera North East flank .

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

Edited September 11, 2014 by KyleHenry

[karyo]

Not 100% checked but looks like location in the Bardarbunga Caldera North East flank .

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

It's on the IMO website too now.

 

Karyo

[Rustynailer]

Not 100% checked but looks like location in the Bardarbunga Caldera North East flank .

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

They checked that one quick, It must have rang a few buzzers.

 

This caldera is going down noisily and accelerating I suppose. 

 

That EQ could be bigger than 5.2, the check was quick and it will still need reworking.

 

She is still OK in the background center right, Bada 2     21:22 UK

 

Gas tornadoes at night 21:27 UK  

 

The last EQ at Bada was bigger, it could be a 5.5 or more, Look at the Hekla strain meter.   

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

Today (11.9.) at 19:57 an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 has occurred on the northern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga. Around 20 earthquakes above magnitude 5 have been measured on the caldera rim since the onset of the earthquake swarm in August.

 

http://en.vedur.is/

 

 

Edited September 11, 2014 by john pike

[KyleHenry]

Today (11.9.) at 19:57 an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 has occurred on the northern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga. Around 20 earthquakes above magnitude 5 have been measured on the caldera rim since the onset of the earthquake swarm in August.

http://en.vedur.is/

I see a change of depth to 2 km for it

John,Karyo and Rustynsiler the speed of confirmation from IMO says a lot.

Edited September 11, 2014 by KyleHenry

[summer fun]

Is it worth also keeping an eye on the volcano to the west of the glacier as there has been a concentration of small EQ's there over the course of today.

 

Could they be ice quakes caused by the inflation/deflation and rifting of the area or

 

maybe magma is finding a new route in/out of Bada itself or glacial melt water is.

 

Then again could just i could just be over thinking the situation.

 

LINK:- http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949

 

Pics are large so won't paste on here.

 

Also is it possible that the dyke is on more than 1 level running horizontal from the volcano like 2 tubes say 50ft apart, with 1 branching to the surface and 1 carrying on moving northwards underground. and therefore allows for the eruption to be free flowing from where it is now at Holurhan but also continue to move further to the north past Askja.

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myvatn/

[Rustynailer]

I see a change of depth to 2 km for it

John,Karyo and Rustynsiler the speed of confirmation from IMO says a lot.

Indeed it does, todays spreading of the fissure. Latest from IMO   The magma from Bada is combining with fresh mantle material and filling up the void created by the spreading rift.

Quite a lot of movement in the 40km or so of rift.

 

Looks like business as usual   

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer