iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[Filski]

5.0 in the BARDARBUNGA area just a little while ago.

[john pike]

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=397920

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=397895

[Filski]

Well that is interesting. Frequency seems to be picking up.

We need  a flight over the caldera to see if there are signs of dropping.

[Sussex Jules]

Monday

01.09.2014 11:41:08 64.677 -17.452 6.8 km 5.3 99.0 5.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga

[Rustynailer]

The chance of a caldera collapse at Bada is rising all the time, the collapse will be disruptive to air travel around its vicinity, 200 miles at least and any ash cloud will be predictable and avoidable at least initially in my opinion.

The weather charts and diagrams on this site are among the best on the internet, if it goes up you know where to look.

I would say we have passed the 50/50 threshold of a caldera event now. If it goes it will show as a mag 6+ EQ.

 

Further, NE of Askja is in the reckoning for fissure type activity in my opinion. 50/50 chance now I would say.

 

If the sites go down because of internet interest Keep looking at the USGS EQ site if all else overloads, at least they are ready for any viral rush.....

 

If you are traveling by air and think you may be effected, learn how to read the basic charts on this site and you will be able to make a good judgement about delays and diversions

 

I shalt   not post any links there are enough about to find quite easily..

 

The fissure is still fissuring ...File Name of fissure Holuhraun, I must remember  

 

Quote IMO:-  At 08:58 AM (1 Sept) an earthquake M5.0 by the northwestern rim of the Bardarbunga caldera. Report was received from Akureyri (N-Iceland) that it was felt there. Another one M5.3 occurred at similar location at 11:41. It was also felt in Akureyri.

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/dyn.gif

Dyn graph

Hard to read but clearly shows the uptake again this morning

Edited September 1, 2014 by john pike

[Rustynailer]

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/dyn.gif

Dyn graph

Hard to read but clearly shows the uptake again this morning

Yes it shows an increase in magma pressure I think its more shaking = higher pressure, less shaking = pressure lowering, generally.

it will only be a slight increase. But still dangerous I expect. Probably means back pressure like a restriction or blockage maybe.....

 

File1:- The Holuhraun fissure eruption.

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

Bardarbunga slowly sinking

Strong earthquakes at the Bardarbunga in Vatnajokull are signs that the magma chamber beneath is partly subsiding due to the magma streaming out, says Pall Einarsson professor of geophysics. Since August 16th, 559 earthquakes have been detected; twelve of them Magnitude 5 and over.

During the entire episode of the seismic and volcanic activity in northwestern Vatnajokull, Bardarbunga and north of the glacier, the strongest earthquakes have been detected along rim of the caldera in Bardarbunga, a subglacial volcano.

A 5.3 Magnitude event was detected there shortly before noon today; since August 16, some 559 earthquakes have been detected around the caldera. 26 of them have been larger than Magnitude 4; 12 have exceeded Magnitude 5.

"These strong earthquakes are the consequence of magna streaming out of the chamber beneath the caldera", says Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences. "The magma chamber is clearly subsiding, thus reacting to the considerable amount of magma that has been streaming out towards the dike intrusion," says Einarsson. "Analysis of these earthquakes supports this conclusion, as well as nearby GPS measurements of land deformation. We call this pressure changes in the roof of the magma chamber; in effect, the top of the volcano is sinking ever so slightly."

Before the current episode of seismic activity, 18 years had passed since a Magnitude 5 or larger earthquake had been detected in Bardarbunga. Thus far, the strongest one was M5,7 on August 26th. That earthquake was the strongest in Iceland since May 29th. 2008, when a doublet earthquake with a combined magnitude of 6,3 struck near the town of Selfoss in southern Iceland, in what geologists call the South Iceland Seismic Zone. There, two transform faults move horizontally against each other.

This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on September 1. 2014, at 14:47 GMT.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/bardarbunga-slowly-sinking

[The PIT]

Interesting too see the tremors are in three disctinct places now. The Caldera, The Dike intrusion North East of Bada and North East of Askja. The reports say the intrusion stopped South West of Askja so what's happening to the North East. Just fracturing of the ground without magma input which I can't see. Magma from Askja? The only way to find out is when and if it erupts. The magma make up will indicate the source whether it's a from Bada a mixture of Askja magma and Bada or just simply Askja's.

The stronger quakes have dropped a bit from earlier on which could indicate either a reduction in flow into the system or the pressure has been relieved.

It also seems that the fissure eruption is beginning to fade http://www.ruv.is/frett/holuhraun-lava-eruption-rapidly-subsiding

Edited September 1, 2014 by The PIT

[Gael_Force]

Looks like either the fissure has reached the river or all the run-off rain has reached the magma.

 

 

Very high SO2 levels earlier today.

 

http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/iceland.html

[swebby]

Evening - just catching up having been out of the loop all day. 

I take it that the fissure eruption has been pootling along merrily all day and that the wind direction has now changed or they have moved the mila web cam to a new site?

Any news on the bunga caldera other than the series of large quakes this morning - eg any signs of glacial outflow?

 

I thought I may have seen some sferics on the mila cam but that may just have easily been camera artefacts on the feed.  If not however I would assume that means there is now ash present and the fissure eruption is becoming explosive?

[doctormog]

Apologies if this video has already been posted but if not it is well worth a look

http://www.ruv.is/frett/hraunid-naer-yfir-3-ferkilometra-myndband

[If Wishes made Weather]

Fascinating developments today.  In particular, I cannot help thinking that if the caldera or flank of Baroarbunga gives, then it will go with a big crack as the weight of the ice around it must have, and continue, to compress its constituent materials into something more solid than in an equivalent structure without the ice pressure. Presumably then more pressure is required to break it than in a non ice compressed case.

[Buckster]

I was just looking up trying to visualise 600 odd metres of ice and it's near incomprehensible

[Day10]

I was just looking up trying to visualise 600 odd metres of ice and it's near incomprehensible

Best I could do, sorry no ice!

The Udachnaya Pipe Diamond Mine, Russia which is apparently close on 600m in depth... Gulp

[Rustynailer]

85 square kilometers @ 600m thick, truly hard to stop once it starts moving. Its the largest potential for a Krakatoa like event I have ever herd of.

I did not think we were near anything like that in the UK but if it goes all at once we will hear it from here I think.....

Fissure eruption looks deceptively pretty at the moment.

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[karyo]

85 square kilometers @ 600m thick, truly hard to stop once it starts moving. Its the largest potential for a Krakatoa like event I have ever herd of.

I did not think we were near anything like that in the UK but if it goes all at once we will hear it from here I think.....

Fissure eruption looks deceptively pretty at the moment.

It looks like a tornado!

[Polar Maritime]

Is that mostly Ash? All new to me this Volcano malarkey ..

Edited September 1, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Rustynailer]

Is that mostly Ash? All new to me this Volcano malarkey ..

No ash at the moment just gas mainly SO2 

 

It has been stated today that it is 400 tons of SO2 per second into the atmosphere. 

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Rustynailer]

Quote 

Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland

 

"These strong earthquakes are the consequence of magna streaming out of the chamber beneath the caldera", says Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences. "The magma chamber is clearly subsiding, thus reacting to the considerable amount of magma that has been streaming out towards the dike intrusion," says Einarsson. "Analysis of these earthquakes supports this conclusion, as well as nearby GPS measurements of land deformation. We call this pressure changes in the roof of the magma chamber; in effect, the top of the volcano is sinking ever so slightly." 

 

 

I noted that in 1477 Bada had a VE 6 eruption that's the same size as Krakatoa I think, it is documented as an explosion.....Presume that's where this massive caldera came from, now the problem is the 85 square Kilometers of ice at 600m thick sat on top shaking and being heated from below at would you believe 1200c yes 1200 centigrade    

 

Worse thing is everything seems to be slowing down a bit at thr moment, with Icelandic volcanoes that is potentially dangerous. As nothing big has happend yet. EJ in 2010 had a fissure stop erupting and it blew its top in a newsworthy manner a day or so later.

 

Slow down file 1...

 

Fissure still cooking, File 2...

 

The glow is back...File 3...

 

Matches the sky because the fissure is providing the illumination File 4...

Latest SO2 maps. File 5 and 6... If there was any ash it would likely go the same way...

 

Night time. File 7...

 

Askja has just wobbled a bit possibly... something near by maybe? File 8...right hand side at the end...

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

http://www.ruv.is/frett/slabby-pahoehoe-lava-and-lots-of-it

[Rustynailer]

I tried to line up the EQ's with the map in your post John ^^^ 

 

http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/ a nice link for understanding where things are, beware some of the names are totally unmouthable 

The web cam Mila 1 and 2 are on the mountain top right of map file 2... Night shot File 3...

 

The NW of Askja EQ swarm File 4 ...

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

So barda is slipping. Have to start looking at changes and rates of change. This will still be going for quite a while I think.

Wonder when the next big quake in the caldera will be!

[Rustynailer]

So barda is slipping. Have to start looking at changes and rates of change. This will still be going for quite a while I think.

Wonder when the next big quake in the caldera will be!

Bet we get it wrong, Ill guess between 01:00Z and 04:00Z UK time. first of 3 quakes in a group max mag 5.1.....

Caldera partial collapse within 7 days VE 5 eruption.

Just what I feel not facts by a long chalk. 

 

File Bada EQ's

 

 

Edited September 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

:-)