iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[Freddie123]

So was last nights eruption from above the dyke flowing towards Askja or just another part of the underground system thats under pressure?

 

This live cam link is working, I saw cars on it 10 mins ago.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoISDUAPNgc#t=17223

 

Fred

[Flipflop]

Bárðarbunga 2 as it is now.

 

 

 

[BrickFielder]

Ok first a word of warning picked up from volcanocafe.

 

Please do not link to http://www.vedur.is and en.vedur.is sites at this time

Please use the live Youtube stream for the webcam rather than the Mila link, as the latter is likely to be in use by emergency authorities.

 

Yet again I am still confused but starting form a bit of a theory about what is going on. My first clue is in the melt cauldrons found to the south east of Bárðarbunga.

 

This may coincide with the initial extrusion out into the fissure line, if it is at all related to activity from Bárðarbunga and not the next door volcano.

 

This suggests to me that the lava left the magma chamber quite high up in the chamber and crust, under high pressure.  The hot lava has heated the rocks and probably created steam which has trickled up to slowly melt the ice above. It also suggest that the fissure was already partially there down to quite a depth. My guess is that the fissure begins to narrow as it aproaches Askja, so may not reach the magma chamber at Askja.

 

Looking at the depths of earth quakes along the fissure then it appears the fissure is about 2km to 15 km deep. Bearing in mind that the crust is up to 40km deep at first glance the fissure does not reach down to the mantle. My best guess is that actually the crust is a variable thickness deepest under Bárðarbunga and shallowing towards 25km towards Askja. I am in two minds whether the magma injection and opening up of the existing fissure so far, has forced the fissure down to the mantle (earthquakes down to 20km in that region) where the recent eruption is.

 

As for the Bárðarbunga earthquakes then I have a theory that Bárðarbunga has a significant cork in its top.

Image is from the following link if you want to see the explanation.

https://notendur.hi.is/~mtg/pdf/2007JGeodyn_MTG_ThH_Vatnaj.pdf

 

Either the plug is being knocked by the extrusion to the south east and activating the ring faults or another mechnism is in place. My next theory is that the magma chamber under Bárðarbunga might not be that deep and the earthquakes from 3km down to 6km might be due to asperity ruptures as a new dyke tries to feed into the magma chamber.

 

Ok so I have not explained that very well and its related to high pressure steam cracking rocks open beneath the magma chamber as a new dyke pushes up. A more detailed discussion is in the following link.

 

http://www.gep.ncu.edu.tw/upload/thesis/2003/thesis_1392619877.pdf

 

If some or any of my theories are right then we could be in for an interesting time. I am thinking the fissure could open up more initially and the thing about corks is that they can pop out quite dramatically under high pressure.  It is also possible that the earthquakes in Bárðarbunga are due to ring faults and decompression which might suggest a calming down of activity before pressure builds up again.

 

So once again I am completely lost.

 

A few more charts

first up an ice cauldron (not from Bárðarbunga)

next up is the motion of the plates which goes to explain why fissures open up but also shows Bárðarbunga as a focal point for rifting zones.

 

Again I hope the post will get people to explore ideas rather than be taken to reflect any version of the truth (Leave that to the experts unlike casual observers like me).

Edited August 29, 2014 by BrickFielder

[Midlands Ice Age]

Brickfielder.....

 

Thanks for the above very interesting as well as educational post above.

 

MIA

[The PIT]

Brickfielder I wouldn't worry too much about the warnings about linking. They come up on Google anyway 1st page of results when googled last night when I tried to find the latest extent of the dike. Once you're out there you're out there.The cats out of the bag.

The question about the Lava flow. They won't be referring to magma within the dyke but the direction of the flow once it's left the fissure. Two different things.

Edited August 29, 2014 by The PIT

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/

I am sure heavy rain wont help there at present

I have given up trying to work out whats happening now

Never seen a set up like this before

The thing that i feel is worth watching is a collapse of some kind

Of baroabunga. Looking at the quakes these have almost encircled it so

The chance of a subsidence event and flank collapse must be a risk

However again its a watch and see

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I have given up trying to work out whats happening now

Never seen a set up like this before

The thing that i feel is worth watching is a collapse of some kind

Of baroabunga. Looking at the quakes these have almost encircled it so

The chance of a subsidence event and flank collapse must be a risk

However again its a watch and see

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949

John,

 

Which do you think is more likely, a Flank collapse or a Cauldera collapse as a lot of magma has flowed out to the North/North East?

 

I think the latter (Cauldera Collapse is rather more likely if it's the ring faults cracking under the strain  --  less pressure holding them up and a huge weight from the glacier pushing down.

 

I almost prefer the idea of a flank collapse rather than the other

[john pike]

Hi norfolk

Hard call mate

A collapse of some kind in my opinion looks likely

Especially if we see many more larger quakes there

Re the dyke

Honestly no idea

[Rustynailer]

I would imagine the rift closed its self up by collapsing in on its self at depth, pressure will be building now it, the hot spot/rifting pulse is still ongoing.

Significant erosion of supporting rock takes place when these pressures are released at depth through tiny passages, last nights fireworks was all about hot gasses melting rock as they escape, today the rock steamed because it has water in it, the water table also leaking streams into the voids.

I have yet to see lava. Lava explodes when it has access to water and the pressure is down. Water exists at 1000C in a pressurized environment as soon as the pressure is released the water boils explosively, some magma contains pressurized water at depth as it breaks through to the surface the more water involved the more explosive. EJ eruption in 2010 involved a good amount of water.

 

The remelted lava from the fissure venting will be up to a couple of hundred years old. Now it is fresh all over again.

 

 

Latest report, note small amount of lava. Erik K was teaching this (^^^see above on this post^^^) on the internet at his Eruptions site even before the  EJ 2010 eruption.  http://earthice.hi.is/bardarbunga_2014

Edited August 29, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Buriedundersnow]

few pics I found of the eruption

 

 

this from Cambridge uni team where the eruption is and sensors they have placed

 

[karyo]

Activity today appears elevated with more big earthquakes compared to yesterday. Another 4.1 just happened.                                        http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

Edited August 29, 2014 by karyo

[Rustynailer]

few pics I found of the eruption

 

 

I like those, best I have seen up to now.

I think this is what they call a throat clearing exercise, the true fireworks from a fissure eruption can take weeks/months to develop.

 

That lava looks like remelted stuff, light weight lots of air bubbles.

Looking at the latest quakes I don't think the lava proper is there yet, give it time. Some of those cracks in the ground photographed from the air earlier are alongside the eruption site a KM or so away running parallel, that is a big possible fissure indeed

 

http://www.visir.is/aegifegurd-vid-holuhraun/article/2014140828772 New pictures one seems to show a familiar sight an extrusion plug I speculate. The plug is extruding as it can not hold back the magma.....(my image 5)

 

Don't forget that this lovely quake plot is kept up to date http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/quakes3d/ (its on a quieter IMO site hraun doubt it will crash through people looking from this thread)

Edited August 29, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Buriedundersnow]

Gisli Olafsson â€@gislio 7m

More earthquakes near #Bardarbunga over the past two weeks than in all of #Iceland last year #ashtag

[john pike]

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/allarsort.html

Ask

Dyn

Kre

All look to be increasing again

[john pike]

At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop. However, three scenarios are considered most likely: * The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions. * The dike could reach the Earth's surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity. * The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity. At 10:00 UTC, IMO changed the Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga to ‘orange', signifying that significant emission of ash into the atmosphere is unlikely. The aviation colour-code for the Askja volcano remains at ‘yellow'. Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

[Buriedundersnow]

Gisli Olafsson â€@gislio 2m

Scientists say this activity in/near #Bardarbunga may last years like Krafla eruptions did in 1975-84.

[Lincs Observation]

Todays Overview of proceedings from the Icelandic Meteorological Office

 

29th August 2014 18:30 - from geoscientist on duty

Little changes since the status report, earlier today. An earthquake M4,1 occurred at 16:27 on the northern rim of Bárðarbunga caldera. The number of earthquakes from the automatic network is similar as at the same time yesterday, about 1200 earthquakes.

29th August 2014 16:20 - Status report

Overall assessment from the joint status report 290814 of the Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop. However, three scenarios are considered most likely: * The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions. * The dike could reach the Earth's surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity. * The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity. At 10:00 UTC, IMO changed the Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga to ‘orange', signifying that significant emission of ash into the atmosphere is unlikely. The aviation colour-code for the Askja volcano remains at ‘yellow'. Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera.

29th August 2014 12:20 - from the Scientific Advisory Board

Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences, and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland, attend the meetings of the Advisory Board.

Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board:

• At 00:02 UTC signs of a lava eruption were detected on web camera images from Mila. The web-camera is located at Vaðalda, north-east of the eruption site.
• Around midnight, weak signs of increased tremor were apparent on IMO's seismic stations near to the eruption site.
• At 00:20 UTC scientists in the field from the Icelandic Met Office, Institute of Earth Sciences and Cambridge University confirmed the location of the eruption.
• The eruption occurred on an old volcanic fissure on the Holuhraun lava field, about 5 km north of the Dyngjujökull ice margin. The active fissure was about 600 m in length.
• A small amount of lava drained from the fissure and by around 04:00 UTC, lava flow is thought to have stopped.
• According to seismic data and web-camera imagery, the eruption peaked between 00:40 and 01:00 UTC.
• At the beginning of the eruption, seismic activity decreased, although seismicity has since returned to levels observed in recent days.
• Aerial observations by the Icelandic Coastguard show that only steam is rising from the site of the lava eruption.
• There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining.
• At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop. However, three scenarios are considered most likely:
• • The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
  • The dike could reach the Earth's surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity.
  • The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
• Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera.

From the Icelandic Met Office:

At 10:00 UTC, IMO changed the Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga to ‘orange', signifying that significant emission of ash into the atmosphere is unlikely. The aviation colour-code for the Askja volcano remains at ‘yellow'.

29th August 2014 11:58 - The new eruption in Holuhraun

Below are two photos of the new lava in Holuhraun, ca 5 km north of Dyngjujökull. The photo was taken from TF-Sif, the aeroplane of the Icelandic Coast Guard.

The new lava and steam

The new lava that came up in the eruption tin the first ohours of 29th of August. The photo was taken at 10:44 o'clock this morning, 29th August. Credit to The Icelandic Coast Guard.

29th August 2014 07:10 - from geoscientist on duty

Seismic activity has decreased as a result of the pressure release, however a significant amount of earthquakes is still detected in the magma dike, between the eruption site and south to about 5 km into Dyngjujökull.

Strongest events were 3.8 in the caldera of Bárðarbunga at 04:37, as well as 2.9 at 05:39 and 3.5 at 06:38 in the dike. These earthquake are very closely monitored, but no significant change volcanic activity following these has been observed so far.

Web camera from Míla shows the area. Míla's background photo has nothing to do with the current event.

29th August 2014 02:45 - An eruption north of Dyngjujökull

An eruption started in Holuhraun north of Dyngjujökull at around 00:02. Seismic tremor was observed on all seismic stations and the web camera installed in the area by Mila has showed some nice pictures of the eruption.  It is a small fissure eruption and at 02:40 AM the activity appears to have decreased.

[Alby Back]

It's a bit of a let-down that the cam images have been blocked. It would be nice if they could upload an image, say every 10 mins to a server that's got more bandwidth. So we could continue to get a glimpse of what's going on.

[Buzz]

Have the cams been blocked to everyone, or just people using an IP address that is not of Iceland origin?

[Shell Rawcliffe]

Have the cams been blocked to everyone, or just people using an IP address that is not of Iceland origin?

 

I think it is everyone outside of Iceland, make sense as a post earlier on stated that they wished to use the cams for the emergency services.

 

With a ban in place it would free up the bandwidth and stop the overloading that we have been seeing recently.

 

They recommended the live stream in you tube to use but i do not know if that is working.

 

3dbulge have an interesting new feature that maps the quakes with an overlay of the island for a more accurate look at the quakes.

 

http://baering.github.io/earthquakes/visualization.html

[Paul]

Blog from Jo Farrow - Visit Iceland Another Weekend!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6118;sess=

[milkmaid]

i am on the web cam 

[Rustynailer]

I like the way it says fasten things down in Jo Farrows blog, I saw a video on the Jon Frimann volcano blog in 2010 I think, it showed a 45ft shipping container just calmly blowing of a dockside in North East Iceland during a winter storm.

There are a few tales of the sheep blowing/flying past webcams over there too   sorry poor sheep

IMO permit copying screenshots during Volcanic hoo-hars it saves there site from blog and forum post links crashing their site when clicked 1000's times by eager Googlers, eager for information on the end of the world and it will be if my flights cancelled, etc 

 

The latest un adusted un checked quakes are usually in red quakes, if its very busy they might even go to orange, its that busy at the moment everything below a mag 2 will stand about as much chance of being checked as a lottery jackpot..... 

Edited August 29, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Allseasons-Si]

i am on the web cam 

I cannot see you on it

 

no,joking aside,where are you viewing this as all iceland webcams are blocked,link please.

[Rustynailer]

I like the way it says fasten things down in Jo Farrows Blog, I saw a video on the Jon Frimann volcano blog in 2010 I think, it showed a 45ft shipping container just calmly blowing of a dockside in North East Iceland during a winter storm.

There are a few tales of the sheep blowing/flying past webcams over there too   sorry poor sheep

IMO permit copying screenshots during Volcanic hoo-hars it saves there site from blog and forum post links crashing their site when clicked 1000's times by eager Googlers, eager for information on the end of the world and it will be if my flights cancelled, etc 

 

The latest un adusted un checked quakes are usually in red quakes, if its very busy they might even go to orange, its that busy at the moment everything below a mag 2 will stand about as much chance of being checked as a lottery jackpot..... 

 How the hell did I just re post this here  

Edited August 29, 2014 by Rustynailer