iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[karyo]

I see a change of depth to 2 km for it

John,Karyo and Rustynsiler the speed of confirmation from IMO says a lot.

Yes, I detect a sense of urgency from their side!

 

Looks like business as usual   K135.JPG

The colours on this image are mesmerising!

 

Karyo

[KyleHenry]

And there is the biggest concern for most people Rustynailer, from one little word that you just typed;

Mantle

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The screenshot shows how close to a complete circle the earthquakes over M3 have made in the last 48 hours.

 

 

 

Following on from JonFR's comments yesterday where he said a collapse was already in progress, it would seem that it's increasing in speed. The more quakes we get the greater the chance of a catastrophic collapse.

 

Add to that the list of quakes over 3 SO FAR today and it's not looking good

 

 

 

 

[summer fun]

is it just me or do the fountains look more active at the moment compared to earlier on.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

is it just me or do the fountains look more active at the moment compared to earlier on.

I just looked and was quite surprised how active they looked,  that should mean a reduction in pressure  --  OR further deflate the caldera

[summer fun]

I just looked and was quite surprised how active they looked,  that should mean a reduction in pressure  --  OR further deflate the caldera

 

Maybe we will begin to see another uptick in EQ at the caldera. 

[Love Snow]

Got a feeling this will go bang tomorrow just my prediction not based on anything just a feeling I've got !

[Rustynailer]

And there is the biggest concern for most people Rustynailer, from one little word that you just typed;

Mantle

Yes that is coming up under Bada and filling in to the fissure from there, the scientists reported that the thin runny lava coming out of the fissure was evolved magma combined with fresh material from the mantle.

It is not happening along the fissure, just at Bada this is perhaps why the caldera is only sinking slowly.

Lava sampling on the 9th http://earthice.hi.is/petrology_holuhraun_lava_gudmundur_heidar_gudfinnsson_and_sigurdur_jakobsson   slightly olivine-normative tholeiite (0-5 wt% ol) The Olivine bit is decompression melt below Bada I think.

 

Bada is the source of the magma, the mantle is keeping the lid on things by topping the chamber up. if the fissure breaks new ground and lets the pressure off a bit, the mantle will get more, involved.

Just a matter of time. 

 

There are no quakes from deep down for two reasons, the first is the opening is already open, second there has been no rush as yet...

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[toggerob]

Sobering when you realise that each +5 quake around the rim of Bárðarbunga is many thousands of tonnes of rock (and more) collapsing into the chasm below. If you could survive the temperature then right now what's underneath the caldera is one of the largest caverns ever seen on Earth.

[The PIT]

A drop in seismic activity overnight after a another large one. Misty on the cam with only a faint glow showing the eruption is still carrying on.

[picog]

Sobering when you realise that each +5 quake around the rim of Bárðarbunga is many thousands of tonnes of rock (and more) collapsing into the chasm below. If you could survive the temperature then right now what's underneath the caldera is one of the largest caverns ever seen on Earth.

Wouldn't the caverns fill with magma almost as soon as they form?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

A drop in seismic activity overnight after a another large one. Misty on the cam with only a faint glow showing the eruption is still carrying on.

The Fissures were looking very bright last night, the drop in EQ's probably means the lave is more freely flowing.  The main problem with the number of earthquakes that have happened around the caldera is that the ring faults that surround the outside of the caldera have been severely weakened.  Add the amount of ice sitting above (10km * 7km * .7km = 49 billion tonnes) that adds to the downward pressure due to the reduction in pressure in the magma chamber. 

 

The figures associated with all this are truly amazing

Edited September 12, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Yarmy]

Jón Frímann is sounding pretty apocalyptic on his latest post and in the comments:

 

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=4958#comments

 

"The people at Icelandic Met Office are concerned (and University of Iceland). It is at that level when I get terrified. There is also nothing suggesting that current sequence of events is about to stop."

 

"I don’t think there is more then a week until this goes off full power." (I think this is just an error in his English though)

 

"Mount Tambora comes to mind. But the caldera that formed in 1815 was smaller then what we are seeing in Bárðarbunga. The mechanism are not the same. I don’t know if it is going to be as big as Tambora, but I do know and estimate that is going to be big."

 

He obviously has a lot of expertise and appears convinced there is going to be a cataclysmic eruption, but I can't help thinking that if things were so dangerous the message from the Icelandic authorities would be much clearer (although avoiding panic is obviously important).

[Freddie123]

If it went with the same size explosion as Tambora the explosion would be heard as far away as Paris, Stockholm and Berlin.

[karyo]

I have been following Jon Frimann since 2010 and this is the first time I see him alarmed about an eruption!

Karyo

[Filski]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQVYpKRBoj8

 

Video links weren't working for me earlier so updating with the above (plus its a new page so make it easy)

[swebby]

Tambora? - crikey!

 

I've not been following Jon Frimann for that long but I get the impression that he is not one to be sensationalist for the sake of it.  Hopefully he is way off the mark on this occasion but given his track record and knowledge, time to be concerned?

 

My instinct has so far been that this would be a small to medium sized fissure eruption.  This is based on nothing more than looking at the surrounding landscape - lava fields, spatter cones, craters and smallish shield style volcanoes dominate and outnumber the big beasts by some way so I've always assumed that the balance of probabilities is for an eruption of this type (krafla fires) rather than something cataclysmic.

Edited September 12, 2014 by swebby

[karyo]

There appear to be gaps between the quakes today. It is quite evident in the IMO website.

Karyo

[karyo]

We have the first big one of the day! 4.6 in Bardarbunga

karyo

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

We have the first big one of the day! 4.6 in Bardarbunga

karyo

Same NNE corner, shallow as well, been ugraded a smidgin and reviewed very quickly

 

Friday

12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga

 

As you say on the other quakes noticeably fewer today

Edited September 12, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[karyo]

Same NNE corner, shallow as well, been ugraded a smidgin and reviewed very quickly

 

Friday

12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga

 

As you say on the other quakes noticeably fewer today

I wonder what the shallower depth means? It is an interesting change.

[Filski]

Drone video of the eruption from what I guess is yesterday

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=944907378857060&set=vb.933177740030024&type=2&theater

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I wonder what the shallower depth means? It is an interesting change.

Well, it looks as if it's only just below sea level according to wiki the volcano rises to a fraction over 2,000 metres, so if it's 3,500 meters from the surface that's pretty shallow

I'd assume that the deeper earthquakes only serve to transfer the stress closer to the surface.  Then as other quakes happen the stress either increases or decreases until the fault can't support itself and lets go.  That would then be likely to increase the pressure lower down, so we see a see saw effect, deep, shallow, less deep, shallower as the mountain settles.

[karyo]

I cannot view the webcams because I'm at work

Can anybody tell me if the fissure still erupting like it was yesterday?

Karyo

[Freddie123]

Seems to be a lot of thick billowing cloud on Bada 2 and its shaking a lot, quite difficult to see and Bada 1 seems to show the plume moving right off camera but with some odd yellow/red tints in it.