iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[BrickFielder]

Good article Buzzit. Here is a quick quote from the article which I hope will encourage others to read it.

The fissure is also showing signs of having opened up down to the mantle at places, and that would mean that it is possible for rapid decompression melt to occur, and that is a necessity for a large rifting fissure eruption to access large enough quantities of magma.

The most surprising sign though is that this rifting fissure is not following a single fissure swarm. This is totally unsuspected behavior that nobody has even guessed at in their most feverish fantasies. The initial intrusion charged straight out of the Bárðarbunga fissure swam, passed barren land in between fissure swarms and connected with the Grimsvötn northern fissure swarm, followed that downstream and then once again changed trajectory and entered the fissure swarm of Askja.

[Chris.R]

I think this is one of the best articles on the current situation and essential reading !

 

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/

 

Here's a description of the effects of the Skaftar fires of 1783 that are talked about in the article.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8624791.stm

[Rustynailer]

I have that secret site that Carl of the Volcano cafe has, I must not give out the link, but I can post screenshots here, please help I have forgotten how to post pictures here.....

[Rustynailer]

Oh looks like I found it....LOL  If it gets exciting I will post this more often. I will not give the link out as it could cause problems in Iceland and endanger life, the locals rely on this easily overloaded link.

I got the link when the first internet volcano went up in 2010, shortly after the people of Iceland requested it to be kept secret, so I have always kept it secret.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/understanding.html

Read the iceland part

Shows how complex the area is and also where the area is likely to split

[Gael_Force]

Oh looks like I found it....LOL  If it gets exciting I will post this more often. I will not give the link out as it could cause problems in Iceland and endanger life, the locals rely on this easily overloaded link.

I got the link when the first internet volcano went up in 2010, shortly after the people of Iceland requested it to be kept secret, so I have always kept it secret.

 

There is nothing on there that is not available on the public website - with a bit of scrolling - it is for an at a glance check for the people it matters to. Best to leave it there.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I have to add Buzzit and Brickfielder to the "Excellent Contributors" list.  The "Nature of the Beast" article is an excellent if somewhat worrying read, obviously well researched. 

 

If what the article describes happened, air travel would be "Interesting" as many routes would have to be redrawn.  Aviation safety being what it is, I would expect engine maintenence to increase possibly halving the time an engine could be operational before servicing.

 

Interesting times

[Rustynailer]

There is nothing on there that is not available on the public website - with a bit of scrolling - it is for an at a glance check for the people it matters to. Best to leave it there.

Yes I agree, luckily only about 20 people outside Iceland have it. They are fine about us using it as long as we leave it alone when the pooh hits the fan.

The 2-4 Hz is presented unfiltered and half an hour earlier than the IMO site, it is how the VC site always knows before everybody else.

At the moment the pooh is approaching the fan but far enough away for the odd look.

TTFN

[john pike]

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/24/geophysicist-warns-against-flying-over-hekla-volcano

Mmmmmmmmmmm lets confuse it even more

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/25/magma-intrusion-approaches-askja-fissure-swarm

[Tom Jarvis]

Interesting website http://www.ijsland-enzo.nl/ijsland/actueel_aardbeving.asp

[Rustynailer]

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/24/geophysicist-warns-against-flying-over-hekla-volcanoMmmmmmmmmmm lets confuse it even morehttp://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/25/magma-intrusion-approaches-askja-fissure-swarm

Hekla has been in some peoples thoughts today on the net, I think it is because it is so sensitive to shaking and some say overdue an eruption, I think they are just speculating.

 

The 2-4Hx charts are on the rise again and have been spotted by the forums I noticed. 5 un checked  mag 2+ eq's in 3 minutes just.

[The PIT]

Volcano's don't go to timetables. Helka recently did have a period of erupting every ten years but seems to have dropped out of the cycle. So it could erupt tomorrow a year 20 years time who knows.

Going to be interesting if this dike reaches Askja you could then end up with the mixing of of two magma sources.

[tinybill]

http://baering.github.io/

 

is  it me or are the earth quakes  geting near to the  top as   lot of them are  over 2

[lorenzo]

Tremor activity still looking very active at Dyn and also Askja.

 

The Volcanocafe link is an excellent read, thanks for finding that - enjoyable.

 

Quite a prospect that this fissure swarm will interconnect all the volcanoes.

 

Dyn / Askja

 

 

 

Cat 2 and above quakes in the last 2 hours, yep looking very busy again at Kistufelli

 

These updates caught my attention - 

 

• The dike beneath Dyngjujökull is now thought to be close to 35 km long. Modelling of GPS data indicates that it contains about 300 million cubic meters of magma.
• There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining. Currently, three scenarios are considered most likely:
• The migration of magma could stop, attended by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
• The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dike. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
• An alternate scenario would be the dike reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.

• Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.

[Rustynailer]

The 99% checked EQ's have generally moved up from 10 to 9 Km underground and generally the non checked majority are closer to Askja, the magma is pushing on at the same rate I think, perhaps with less resistance now it is deeper into the Askja fissure swarm. 

I just can not think of this being a non event, I am sure this will lead to something, I speculate a small fissure eruption and a couple of volcanoes having smallish eruptions in the next few months.

Nothing like a big disaster just normal business for Iceland. Not like Laki, just small.

It is so cool being in uncharted territory, even the experts have no idea what will happen next as there are no past records of the graphs and charts like we see now on the IMO site and the likes to go on. After all this electronic monitoring era we are now in has never seen a fissure eruption in the detail we are now lucky to have, next time of course they will have a better understanding.....

No doubt a picture of a volcano spewing ash will effect peoples travel plans mind, thats life in the Internet age I am afraid.

 

If a regional fissure eruption with flood basalt covering half of Iceland triggering a new Ice age happens now, at least nobody will be at fault, just plain old fate.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rustynailer

[karyo]

We've just had a M5.1 earthquake! The largest one since early morning yesterday!

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

 

Karyo

[Rustynailer]

Another big quake at the Bada caldera Mag 5.1 at the moment, still under revision for an hour or so yet, could end up bigger.

Some speculate as to a caldera collapse at Bada, that would be explosive and ashy, I would imagine if it all went at once it would be a Mag 8 at least, the caldera is 23Km across, these caldera collapses quite often go gradually not all at once I think thankfully.

Again a full caldera collapse has not been seen in the modern age so we don't know exactly what happens. One thing is for certain if all that ice from the glacier in the caldera fell into an empty magma chamber that is at over 1000C there would be a very large explosion like Krakatoa, don't worry though as this is not very likely, its just a far out chance, much more likely a smaller partial collapse with much less of a bang.

We will see.

 

Another screen shot as it is not site crashing busy at IMO at the moment :-

 

 

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rustynailer

[lorenzo]

We've just had a M5.1 earthquake! The largest one since early morning yesterday!

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

 

Karyo

 

In Bárðarbunga too, rather than Kistofell and cranking in at just 2k depth... you can't say it isn't a fascinating watch with action at both ends of the area.

 

This is a link to the daily status report for 25/08/2014

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Bardarbunga_Daily_status_report_250814.pdf

 

@subglacial mentioned this in an earlier tweet about the 4.5 - 5.5 E!s already at Bárðarbunga and went on to tweet... 

 

 

So now that we have another 5.1 EQ, is this still depletion of a magma chamber or something else??

[The PIT]

A good read about a recent caldera collapse can be found here http://eps.mcgill.ca/~courses/c567/Week%204%20-%20Miyakejima-Izu%202000%20VTIs/Geshi%20et%20al%202002.pdf

[Rustynailer]

A good read about a recent caldera collapse can be found here http://eps.mcgill.ca/~courses/c567/Week%204%20-%20Miyakejima-Izu%202000%20VTIs/Geshi%20et%20al%202002.pdf

 I should have said a large caldera collapse with a glacier half a KM thick on top has not been seen in the modern age LOL

Carl at VC says the 5.1 is to do with ring faulting which is pretty bad news IMO, I just hope it goes slowly like the example you posted Mr Pit.

[doctormog]

We've just had a M5.1 earthquake! The largest one since early morning yesterday! http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ Karyo

The IMO have actually upgraded one of yesterday evening's quakes to 5.3 (at a depth of 2.9km in the area of the caldera). I think the magnitude had originally been in the region of 4.5.

[Rustynailer]

Apparently it does not matter if it caldera collapses slowly or even partially, I forgot that the magma chamber will suffer phreatic detonation if ice or water falls through any cracks in the caldera floor.

Very bad situation I think, best hope it stops now and we move on to a nice little fissure eruption.....

 

All the signs are that the magma is leaving the Bada chamber and heading down some rapidly unblocking fissures to Askja, hence the lower mag EQ's away from Bada down the fissure, less obstruction = smaller EQ's.

Unless this stops soon it will empty enough of the Bada chamber to start a collapse looking at these+5 EQ's recently.

Those aerial shots showing cracks and some ash stained ice the other day over Bada might be a sign that this is already under way.

Good luck Iceland. I hope it stops soon.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Rustynailer]

The IMO have actually upgraded one of yesterday evening's quakes to 5.3 (at a depth of 2.9km in the area of the caldera). I think the magnitude had originally been in the region of 4.5.

I have noticed this a lot since the 16/08/this year, its the nature of the beast, thousands of EQ's to check.

Perhaps there will be a statement about the caldera soon at IMO.

Quite disturbing news for the locals, the caldera size has people worried. I speculate that it would be like Krakatoa if it went badly, hopefully it will not even go at all.

[Skullzrulerz]

I have noticed this a lot since the 16/08/this year, its the nature of the beast, thousands of EQ's to check.

Perhaps there will be a statement about the caldera soon at IMO.

Quite disturbing news for the locals, the caldera size has people worried. I speculate that it would be like Krakatoa if it went badly, hopefully it will not even go at all.

 

Are you referring to the 1883 Krakatoa eruption, That was a VEI 6 eruption back then.

[Rustynailer]

Are you referring to the 1883 Krakatoa eruption, That was a VEI 6 eruption back then.

Yes but Krakatoa is much smaller than Bada and it was only water not ice that fell into the chamber.

Bada is the largest volcano of its type on the planet its caldera is 23kms accross and it has erupted more lava than any other volcano on Earth in the last 10,000 years.

The bang would be bigger.

 

The VE6 was caused by a VE3 or less, that emptied the caldera so it collapsed and the sea rushed in, it blew up and ejected enough to total a 6.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rustynailer