South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Weather Discussion

[Crepuscular Ray]

Lovely out this afternoon when in the sunshine and out of the wind. Otherwise, it was chilly because of the strengthening breeze.

[john pike]

right i have the 6pm fax for tomorrow

 

winds breezy on a westerly but not strong

 

looks dry still

 

 

temps

 

around 15-17 degreesand starting to feel a shade humid

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday 00

 

at midnight still dry

 

 

winds

 

starting to increase although not strong

 

temps still warm

 

12-14 degrees

 

now the fax shows

 

warm front then cold front then another cold front

 

it looks like also the fax shows a quick switch of winds from south west to north west

 

the first front looks likely to hit around 4 am (estimated time)

 

heres the rain chart at 6

 

 

so plenty of rain and looks likely to be heavy for all

 

note...when the first cold front comes through i reckon a gust front is very possible (timing this exact is impossible)

 

wind

 

winds look around 40 mph normal and maybe a shade higher coastal areas

 

when the gust front comes through stronger winds and a few rumbles look possible

 

temps

will actually get warmer for a time but will not feel it if out and about

 

at 12oclock

 

winds still strong north westerly

 

around 40 mph but again coastal areas could see higher gusts than that

 

rainfall

 

 

timing difference between ecm and the fax chart

 

the fax looks likely this heavy rain will have cleared by now but a trough over our far north east may still give some heavy rain for a time

 

temps

 

thats quite a temperature swing

 

that would be around 12-13 degrees and feeling cold in the wind

 

later in the day it looks to be dry

 

but windy still

 

 

temps around 6pm

 

around 10 degrees and still a cold wind

 

wednesday night

 

winds still strong and north westerly

 

 

rainfall

 

 

dry

 

temps

 

 

 

quite cold but due to the wind no frost or fog likely

 

 

anyway hope that helps

 

 

regards

 

john

Edited October 19, 2014 by john pike

[weathergeek]

Hi fellow southerners! I haven't been on much but popped back onto NW in the build up to another winter approaching, lol!

So has anyone else seen the thread about the October Pattern Index (OPI) in the Weather Discussion board? Well worth a look, I'm trying not to get too excited but the theory is looking positive for a colder winter!!xx

[lassie23]

Hi fellow southerners! I haven't been on much but popped back onto NW in the build up to another winter approaching, lol!

So has anyone else seen the thread about the October Pattern Index (OPI) in the Weather Discussion board? Well worth a look, I'm trying not to get too excited but the theory is looking positive for a colder winter!!xx

Hello weather geek! Never seen you here before! The OPI has 90% accuracy apparently, or so the people who came up with the theory claim lol!

[weathergeek]

I know, just hope it's true! I'm a reader more than a poster cos I have a great interest in the weather (especially winter!) but don't really have any technical knowledge at all - but i half get what is being said....sometimes, lol!!xx

[Neilsouth]

It's so mild, indoors I'm cooking

[john pike]

wednesday

 

winds still north west but easing

 

high pressure so should stay dry

 

temps around 15-16 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

 

more of a  westerly

 

not strong

 

temps

 

warmer again 17-18 degrees

 

rainfall

 

looks dry

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday

 

 

 

looks dry am wet pm

 

too far this but showing for viewing only

[lassie23]

I know, just hope it's true! I'm a reader more than a poster cos I have a great interest in the weather (especially winter!) but don't really have any technical knowledge at all - but i half get what is being said....sometimes, lol!!xx

All I understood was that negative is good! A bit cooler tonight 14c !

It's so mild, indoors I'm cooking

What's for dinner?

[Neilsouth]

Me it feels lol

[lassie23]

Me it feels lol

It is  warm and to think it will be November soon! Hope it's not another mild winter!

[alexisj9]

It's so mild, indoors I'm cooking

Same here just like last night.

[Neilsouth]

It is  warm and to think it will be November soon! Hope it's not another mild winter!

 

To be honest, I don't think it will be anything last year... I'm going for snow this winter

[alexisj9]

To be honest, I don't think it will be anything last year... I'm going for snow this winter

I hope so, unfortunately I've heard it is rare here in Dover. But when it does there can be lot's, I'm guessing that means I got to wait for a channel low, or kent clipper.

[lassie23]

Old weather folklore says that fog in October is usually a good indicator of snow in the winter! Had one foggy night so far! Does that mean one cold spell or one snow fall to come!

[Captain Shortwave]

A clear start here at the moment. Hopefully the sun will shine for some of the day, even if the forecast is a cloudy one.

[lassie23]

Another warm, sunny morning here 17.2c! I think we are going to have one cool day this week, before it gets mild again! Autumn proper, is still on hold!

Edited October 20, 2014 by lassie23

[alexisj9]

Phew my house is hot on the sun facing side, feels like summer. Thankgoodness outside is more comfortable. Clear blue sky here today, warm with a nice breeze.

[lassie23]

Going to be pretty windy across the SE later, but not as bad as up north, where gusts could hit 70mph!

[alexisj9]

Going to be pretty windy across the SE later, but not as bad as up north, where gusts could hit 70mph!

The met warning up date surprised me today, with everyone saying the models are downgrading the winds. They have increased the area, moved it slightly closer to us, and increased the gust in the warning to 80MPH. 

[lassie23]

80mph   This must mean Scotland and Northern England are in that zone! Are we looking at 40mph gusts down here still!

[saint]

The 80mph is for very exposed coasts I imagine. Anyway, I'm currently on my way up to Leeds.. I better batten down the hatches!

[alexisj9]

80mph   This must mean Scotland and Northern England are in that zone! Are we looking at 40mph gusts down here still!

I think so yep, don't want nothing stronger lol. My mates cafe on the pier is still closed from St Judes storm last year. They haven't fixed up the pier yet.

[lassie23]

I think so yep, don't want nothing stronger lol. My mates cafe on the pier is still closed from St Judes storm last year. They haven't fixed up the pier yet.

I just lost a fence in that storm, so got off very lightly, can't imagine what it did to coastal areas!

[Jax]

Afternoon

 

Watched the day slowly turn duller and darker and the rain arrived just as I was leaving the office for the day, some hefty but short bursts of rain too, seems showers is the way for now, wind not really much either, overnight into tomorrow morning however looks to be a different story.

[alexisj9]

Still nice here, but can see some CT's about. don't look like they'll do much.