South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Weather Discussion

[Daniel*]

November really does not do anything for me - like April when it is too late for cold and too early for some decent warmth... Cloudy and mild, a disgusting combination, have a nice evening folks.

[Captain Shortwave]

So this coming winter.

Well I've delved into a lot of information from netweather and other sources and have come to some sort of conclusion on where winter will go.

We have

A developing weak el-nino

An easterly phase QBO

Sun activity is declining from a solar maximum (albeit weak)

Near record breaking snow advancement during October

OPI index of -2.12

 

So taking into account these pointer, the closest analogue winters I could find were 60/61 and 76/77

So what were these winters like.

60/61

December - Wet and colder than average, a deep trough over the UK.

January - Again a trough aligned towards the UK, but aligned with a negative tilt, this allowed a easterly spell during the month. this month was also wetter and cooler than average.

February - Near normal precipitation but well above average temperatures with heights strong over Europe.

 

76/77

December - Cold month with snow at times. Low pressure was to the south of the UK with blocking to the north.

January - Another cold and snowy month but with some milder spells

February - very unsettled but with some snow.

 

What else do we have 

potential for a SSW during this winter, more likely December into January.

 

So my forecast

December 2014

Unfortunately I see this month being a bit of a wash out with a continuing trend of low pressure slamming against heights to our east and north east. I expect rainfall excesses for this part of the world of 20-50%. The west would fare worse though. Temperatures I suspect will be near normal or slightly above average (0-(+)1). 

 

January 2015

Probably our best shot this winter as heights to our east could build further north and allow a cold blast from the east. Again there could be some wet weather at times, rainfall probably near or slightly above normal. Temperatures, lets be bold and go for (-)1 - (-2) anomaly, so cold. Definitely a chance of some snowy weather at times.

 

February 2015

Less sure about this month, I suspect a cold start, followed by a brief unsettled and milder spell before conditions improve with possibly an early start to spring from mid-month as heights build over Europe. Rainfall near or a little below normal, temperatures around average, perhaps a little above if we get some sunnier and milder conditions.

 

In conclusion, a mixed winter with some real cold potential. Whilst I rate December as being the worst, there could be a chance that cold conditions could start earlier than this, so perhaps December could be saved by Christmas.

 

Hope you enjoy my thoughts, but remember I am posting as a person with a passion, there are much more qualified posters on here to listen too

[Ben_Cambs]

A reasonable day for the time of year, if quiet. Sunny morning but mostly cloudy by the end of the day. Max temp 13C.

 

Interesting thoughts CS   Hopefully we'll get at least a couple of cold, snowy spells this winter to make up for last winter!

Edited November 11, 2014 by Ben_Cambs

[lassie23]

So this coming winter.

Well I've delved into a lot of information from netweather and other sources and have come to some sort of conclusion on where winter will go.

We have

A developing weak el-nino

An easterly phase QBO

Sun activity is declining from a solar maximum (albeit weak)

Near record breaking snow advancement during October

OPI index of -2.12

 

So taking into account these pointer, the closest analogue winters I could find were 60/61 and 76/77

So what were these winters like.

60/61

December - Wet and colder than average, a deep trough over the UK.

January - Again a trough aligned towards the UK, but aligned with a negative tilt, this allowed a easterly spell during the month. this month was also wetter and cooler than average.

February - Near normal precipitation but well above average temperatures with heights strong over Europe.

 

76/77

December - Cold month with snow at times. Low pressure was to the south of the UK with blocking to the north.

January - Another cold and snowy month but with some milder spells

February - very unsettled but with some snow.

 

What else do we have 

potential for a SSW during this winter, more likely December into January.

 

So my forecast

December 2014

Unfortunately I see this month being a bit of a wash out with a continuing trend of low pressure slamming against heights to our east and north east. I expect rainfall excesses for this part of the world of 20-50%. The west would fare worse though. Temperatures I suspect will be near normal or slightly above average (0-(+)1). 

 

January 2015

Probably our best shot this winter as heights to our east could build further north and allow a cold blast from the east. Again there could be some wet weather at times, rainfall probably near or slightly above normal. Temperatures, lets be bold and go for (-)1 - (-2) anomaly, so cold. Definitely a chance of some snowy weather at times.

 

February 2015

Less sure about this month, I suspect a cold start, followed by a brief unsettled and milder spell before conditions improve with possibly an early start to spring from mid-month as heights build over Europe. Rainfall near or a little below normal, temperatures around average, perhaps a little above if we get some sunnier and milder conditions.

 

In conclusion, a mixed winter with some real cold potential. Whilst I rate December as being the worst, there could be a chance that cold conditions could start earlier than this, so perhaps December could be saved by Christmas.

 

Hope you enjoy my thoughts, but remember I am posting as a person with a passion, there are much more qualified posters on here to listen too

I'm expecting a mild, cool, cold, wet, warm,  sunny, windy, dry, frosty snowy winter ! I do agree, a cold spell at Christmas is a strong possibility! Windy, rainy 11.2c at the moment!

[Captain Shortwave]

We can certainly hope for a cold Christmas, worth keeping a check on the strat thread for any developments which could bring cold this winter.

Anyway FAX charts

tomorrow

Moderate southerly flow

Wet start with rain or showers, should dry up later.

Temperatures - 11-14C so another mild day

 

Thursday

Fresh south to south easterly

Should be a dry day for the most part, turning cloudier later on as fronts approach

Temperatures - 11-13C

 

Friday

Moderate south easterly flow

Plenty of action, expect a very wet day with spells of moderate to heavy rain, possibly with a rumble of thunder or two (in fact that's the BBC forecast for here )

Temperatures - 11-13C

[bluebell]

Evening folks!

I put too much trust in my bbc weather app today, decided to let the train take the strain rather than drive to Eastbourne for a training day as there was no rain was forecast (it was about a 20 min walk from the station to the training venue). Lovely walk first thing in sunshine, brisk wind. However I emerged at about 4pm to unwelcome rain, with no umbrella or water proof I trundled through the rain muttering like a sad old bag lady ( pretty good blend with the demographic of Eastbourne, only joking!). Since the then the weather has all been downhill more rain and wind, boo boo where's the snow, oh hang not in the moaning/ramps model thread, only 11 nov so loads of time for those perfect white flakes to bless us with a sparkly white blanket. Anyhow as the thermostat read 17.5 0c when I got in I was justified in lighting the wood burner ( my rule is any figure below 18 0c !) it's now really toasty in here.

[dallas]

Just starting to rain moderately in the city, going to get heavy looking at the radar

[Captain Shortwave]

Partly cloudy start here. Hopefully there won't be any rain for when I go for a job interview in Sudbury later.

[alexisj9]

Looks windy out of the window, no rain as yet, some cloud about. Looking at radar rain looks a while away from here unless things intensify.

[Paul]

We'll be re-introducing the full regions again later today, so this thread will be closed and a new one re-opened shortly.

[lawrenk]

So this coming winter.

Well I've delved into a lot of information from netweather and other sources and have come to some sort of conclusion on where winter will go.

We have

A developing weak el-nino

An easterly phase QBO

Sun activity is declining from a solar maximum (albeit weak)

Near record breaking snow advancement during October

OPI index of -2.12

 

So taking into account these pointer, the closest analogue winters I could find were 60/61 and 76/77

So what were these winters like.

60/61

December - Wet and colder than average, a deep trough over the UK.

January - Again a trough aligned towards the UK, but aligned with a negative tilt, this allowed a easterly spell during the month. this month was also wetter and cooler than average.

February - Near normal precipitation but well above average temperatures with heights strong over Europe.

 

76/77

December - Cold month with snow at times. Low pressure was to the south of the UK with blocking to the north.

January - Another cold and snowy month but with some milder spells

February - very unsettled but with some snow.

 

What else do we have 

potential for a SSW during this winter, more likely December into January.

 

So my forecast

December 2014

Unfortunately I see this month being a bit of a wash out with a continuing trend of low pressure slamming against heights to our east and north east. I expect rainfall excesses for this part of the world of 20-50%. The west would fare worse though. Temperatures I suspect will be near normal or slightly above average (0-(+)1). 

 

January 2015

Probably our best shot this winter as heights to our east could build further north and allow a cold blast from the east. Again there could be some wet weather at times, rainfall probably near or slightly above normal. Temperatures, lets be bold and go for (-)1 - (-2) anomaly, so cold. Definitely a chance of some snowy weather at times.

 

February 2015

Less sure about this month, I suspect a cold start, followed by a brief unsettled and milder spell before conditions improve with possibly an early start to spring from mid-month as heights build over Europe. Rainfall near or a little below normal, temperatures around average, perhaps a little above if we get some sunnier and milder conditions.

 

In conclusion, a mixed winter with some real cold potential. Whilst I rate December as being the worst, there could be a chance that cold conditions could start earlier than this, so perhaps December could be saved by Christmas.

 

Hope you enjoy my thoughts, but remember I am posting as a person with a passion, there are much more qualified posters on here to listen too

Great post CS.

 

I'd be quite happy if you're right.

 

January's always been my favourite month for snow. Must be the memories of 87!

[throwoff]

All the signals I am seeing are reading for a complicated December, it is on a knife edge really, which way it falls would make the choice between snow and mild and wet.

 

I honestly see a change in the models in the coming few weeks and a cold spell coming in.

[throwoff]

Yellow rain and wind warning peeling along the bottom of our region. 

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

Glad I left for work early, some potent showers this morning, eventually it all cleared and had good amounts of clearer skies and sunshine.  Not quite as mild as yesterday.

[Daniel*]

We'll be re-introducing the full regions again later today, so this thread will be closed and a new one re-opened shortly.

Well we are seriously overdue on a new thread, I quite like how this thread is at the moment. But with winter drawing closer things can get rowdy when the neighbours be getting all the snow

[Jason T]

Hello All.

 

Hope everyone well, Noticed that Captain had posted a history post based on 60s and 70s, if anyone likes a good step back in time here is a top link you can go back hundreds of years.

 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1975_1999.htm#1975_1979

[Jax]

Just nipped out for a quick walk and whilst I had a fleece on I did not require a coat, not a bad evening out there but getting cooler and the wind is growing too.

[lassie23]

The 'slug' weather looks like continuing further into November! Damp outside and mild too 10.6c! More heavy rain on the horizon!

[Captain Shortwave]

The 'slug' weather looks like continuing further into November! Damp outside and mild too 10.6c! More heavy rain on the horizon!

Don't forget the ducks 

Yeah it's not looking too great to be honest.

[Jax]

Just been out to feed the slugs.