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Wales, the Midlands & South West England Weather Discussion


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Rather cloudy outside at the moment - currently looks like a mixture of Nimbustratus and Stratus cloud raiding the skies. Quite damp, too, with further chances of rain today. Feels mild with the temperature around 10.5*C.

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25.2mm so far yesterday evening and today back home according to the Davis VP2, though it is under-reading a bit atm so it may be closer to 30mm once the manual gauge is read.

 

Models seem to have downgraded rainfall totals for Friday though.. and the BBC charts don't want to give us much at all. 

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With MOGREPS and EC EPS in good agreement on re-assertion of cyclonic SW'rly into 10-15d trend period (and no sign of any easterly cold advection at least on current signals), we are into a rinse-repeat cycle for W Country that will seem all too familiar in broad sense from last year...

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With MOGREPS and EC EPS in good agreement on re-assertion of cyclonic SW'rly into 10-15d trend period (and no sign of any easterly cold advection at least on current signals), we are into a rinse-repeat cycle for W Country that will seem all too familiar in broad sense from last year...

Worrying for those who suffered flooding earlier in the year Ian?! The ground is quickly becoming saturated now, with this weeks rainfall, problems will arise! So to speak..

Thanks for taking the time to give us an update. :)

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and Yet the operational GFS is still very keen on establishing high pressure bang on top of the UK in the 10-15d time frame and building HP from day 8. I know which one most would want to be correct.

 

By no means any cold, but I don't think that is the main objective atm.

Edited by J10
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Wet start, 22.1mm to 09.00, but not a great deal more since.  Seem to be in a bit of a lull for now.  Local streams are well up...again.

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More heavy rain overnight, 37mm in total. Next lump of heavy rain approaching soon. Now 189mm for November.

 

With MOGREPS and EC EPS in good agreement on re-assertion of cyclonic SW'rly into 10-15d trend period (and no sign of any easterly cold advection at least on current signals), we are into a rinse-repeat cycle for W Country that will seem all too familiar in broad sense from last year...

 

Thanks for popping in. Have noticed a stronger,. more organised PV stirring in the ensemble means for that timeframe. Does this renewed cyclonic spell look prolonged?

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With MOGREPS and EC EPS in good agreement on re-assertion of cyclonic SW'rly into 10-15d trend period (and no sign of any easterly cold advection at least on current signals), we are into a rinse-repeat cycle for W Country that will seem all too familiar in broad sense from last year...

Do find it interesting how, over the recent days, the change into last winter has slowly evolved, already show heavy rainfall figures, and mild(ish) temperatures all heralding the warm SW breeze off the Atlantic. Only time will tell if the other synoptic prove right, but right now it's getting soggier by the day.

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Models seem to have downgraded rainfall totals for Friday though.. and the BBC charts don't want to give us much at all. 

 

Not to be taken literally.... models vary considerably on the wave/shortwave complexities that will very much dictate spread and timing of heavier pulses Thurs-Fri. There's enough ENS support to still suggest totals in parts of W/SW could still be bothersome, hence we're not out of the woods on that situation... yet. UKMO re-examining current warnings; expect amendments over next 24hrs (as might be expected in any case).

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Not much rain here in Weston, only recorded around 12mm since last night.

 

Ian, if I remember correctly you mentioned on one of your local forecasts that there is a reason why fronts seem to split as the approach the West Country, meaning the heavier rain usually misses me.

 

You never went in to detail the reasoning behind it, but I guess it's to do with the Bristol channel and the high ground in Wales & the Mendips?

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Not much rain here in Weston, only recorded around 12mm since last night.

 

Ian, if I remember correctly you mentioned on one of your local forecasts that there is a reason why fronts seem to split as the approach the West Country, meaning the heavier rain usually misses me.

 

You never went in to detail the reasoning behind it, but I guess it's to do with the Bristol channel and the high ground in Wales & the Mendips?

It's not so much a regular split in strict sense - in this set-up, it's often where southerly high WBPT flow, with orographic enhancement, sees reduced rain amounts to lee of any higher ground, where the S-facing upslopes are mopping up most of the heavy stuff. This often leaves something of a gap to areas north of Exmoor/Quantocks/Brendons/Mendips Plateau, but the current situation isn't always so clear-cut due to embedded convective elements, which will dump heavier pulses irrespective of orography.

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PS - also note positioning of waves/ripples running north are currently critical. The one approaching from the S now (out of France) has been reasonably well handled in high-res models and looks set to give heavier rain across swathe of W Country later this afternoon-evening.

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06z NMM not quite as wet but still an awful lot of rain (doesn't include last night's rain of course). True it will be difficult to pinpoint the pulses of rain at this stage.

 

nmm-25-85-0_qvu0.png

 

Met Office also mentioning thundery rain later.

Edited by Bobby
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It's not so much a regular split in strict sense - in this set-up, it's often where southerly high WBPT flow, with orographic enhancement, sees reduced rain amounts to lee of any higher ground, where the S-facing upslopes are mopping up most of the heavy stuff. This often leaves something of a gap to areas north of Exmoor/Quantocks/Brendons/Mendips Plateau, but the current situation isn't always so clear-cut due to embedded convective elements, which will dump heavier pulses irrespective of orography.

 

Thanks for the explanation Ian. 

 

As you say we can get a lot of rain here, but compared to Bobby who seems to get biblical amounts, it's hardly anything.

 

Still, running at over 50mm already this month with more to come - could get over 100mm by the end of the month if this keeps up.

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Thanks for the explanation Ian. 

 

As you say we can get a lot of rain here, but compared to Bobby who seems to get biblical amounts, it's hardly anything.

 

Still, running at over 50mm already this month with more to come - could get over 100mm by the end of the month if this keeps up.

We are already over 100mm and climbing (slowly today it has to be said)

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Hi Dorsetbred, I think most places around us are recording higher totals which is usually  the case.

 

Even when I do get a lot of rain, recording over 130-50mm per month, other places around us are seeing 200-250mm per month.

 

I don't think Weston would cope if we saw that amount of rain & thankfully due to our position we escape the worst.

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More heavy rain overnight, 37mm in total. Next lump of heavy rain approaching soon. Now 189mm for November.

 

 

Thanks for popping in. Have noticed a stronger,. more organised PV stirring in the ensemble means for that timeframe. Does this renewed cyclonic spell look prolonged?

 

Key words in my post are "....based on current signals". It's too early to say how a cyclonic SW'rly influence will hold sway or not (into/beyond the trend period). We've seen sufficient model flux manifested over last few days (looking ahead to that range) to appreciate that caution is required re any particular outcome.

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Afternoon all ,i would also like to add that late last night i emptied my improvised rain bucket and at 8 am this morning hardly anything was in it ,yet looking at radar late last night i expected far more .i am on west mendip but slightly in the lee of some 600/700  hills to my south .this happened alot last year ,but as Ian pointed out rain currently coming out of n/west france does look more potent ,which will add to the last 24hrs and late thursday/friday totals will be right up .certainly dont want to see a repeat of last year ,having your HOME flooded is hearbreaking ,some nice frosts and some of the white stuff etc more tolerable i think for most .Just been out with the dog and atleast three tractors with trucks passed me with tons of Thatchers Cider apples ,the SMELL was tempting ,cheers  :drinks:Thanks Ian Furgusson for you input .

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