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11°C and sunny today.

MO warning out for some of us on Tuesday.

attachicon.gifScreenshots_2014-11-09-11-21-12.png

 

Sure is looking wet, around 2 inches for some falling on saturated ground. Plenty more to come after too. 135.5mm already this month, should get above the 205mm average sometime next week if the charts are right.

 

nmm-25-86-0_asx1.png#

 

 

Looking at the models the idea of an Easterly looks increasingly to be having legs. Whether it ushers in a freezing cold snowy spell or just 2-3 damp grey raw days before the Atlantic steamrolls in again however remains up in the air.  The persistent lump of the PV our NW is worrying though, this should ensure a strong, active Atlantic so any block is going to have its work cut out. We had a similar situation last winter with that pesky PV to our NW throwing too much energy at us. I really want that gone before I'm confident on a cold spell.

 

EDH101-240_jnp6.GIF  EDH1-240_grx2.GIF

 

The PV is disrupted... but the pieces haven't fallen kindly.

 

I think Met Office will be closest to the mark in the end

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Nov 2014 to Sunday 7 Dec 2014:

 

Current indications show that low pressure is likely to be located to the west or southwest of the UK, and as such the most likely scenario is for unsettled weather to continue in most places as we head into December. Rainfall amounts may well be a little above average, more especially in west or northwestern parts of the UK, and temperatures look as though they will remain near or slightly above average. However, some brighter days are still likely and there is still a chance of overnight frost and fog, albeit it patchy, during any of these quieter spells of weather.

Edited by Bobby
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  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Broken cloud. Sunny Spells. Light breeze. 10.1c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

    Looked like it was gonna be a nice sunny day today finally but turned foggy, 8.3c

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    Still misty here and a chilly 5.1C. No sign of the mist lifting either. Disappointing after all the blue skies you guys have posted about.

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Slow moving showers keep popping up here. A heavy one with hail mixed in just passed over. :)

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  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Blue sky's continue here, With just the odd cloud. Temp 9.1c

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  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.

    A gloriously sunny day here, dry and temps got up to 11.8°C around the middle of the day.  There was a slight ground frost initially and also a bit of mist.

     

    post-8165-0-36993600-1415548666_thumb.jp

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Sat here eating my dinner whilst watching the F1, huge crack of thunder! I nearly poo'd mapantz!

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Forget looking for cold. The outputs have flooding written all over them!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Have to say the skies had a slight summery look to them this afternoon, despite only just scraping 10C. Some big cbs out west tracking over Cardiff way gave some good photo opportunities mid-afternoon. I'll post some photos later.

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  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes very clear skys here to, A max of 9.7c Currently 6c.

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  • Location: Abertillery, Blaenau Gwent (230M ASL)
  • Location: Abertillery, Blaenau Gwent (230M ASL)

    Currently experiencing an intense thunderstorm here!

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  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Decent end to a great weekend weather wise, yesterday had the torrential rain, today's showers again catching some folk out. To end the day a great sharp outbreak of thunder, which had some cracking C-C lightning, and a really good mammatus display, had the neighbours out to watch as it changed shapes in front of them.

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  • Location: Swansea (West)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Hot Summers
  • Location: Swansea (West)

    another storm passing over Swansea, bright lightning with almost instantaneous thunder

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  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl

    Omg that was the worst thunder and lightning I think I've seen or heard! It hit a house,knocked electric off in the street,mad,but everything's calm now,hope it doesn't get that intense again,it was like the day after tomorrow,just hope we have snow to follow!

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  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    Have to say the skies had a slight summery look to them this afternoon, despite only just scraping 10C. Some big cbs out west tracking over Cardiff way gave some good photo opportunities mid-afternoon. I'll post some photos later.

    Funny you say that Mike as I thought similarly when out this afternoon, a mostly blue sky punctuated by towering CBs to the South and a few TCu to the NW. It wouldn't have looked out of place in the early evening of a hot summer day.

     

    Not the worst Countryfile forecast because we (ok my immediate area) could end with 3 mostly decent days tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday however Tuesday and Friday will more than make up for that.

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  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

    Some thunder activity here this evening with quite a bit of lightning.

    Fantastic fork lighting thunder flash, floods great entertainment.

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  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Indeed Andy! Looks like a good day for a Bristol Channel streamer if the wind is exactly right. I often get thundery showers with hail/lightning etc. out of those at this time of year but you'll probably get the blue skies with good views of the cbs.

     

    Quoted from the Storms thread:

     

    Some photos of the train of cbs in the Bristol Channel and over South Wales this afternoon:

     

    P1120279_zps26d213f7.jpgP1120280_zps6670d9f5.jpgP1120282_zpsdb3fae17.jpgP1120284_zps2a0e2fe5.jpgP1120286_zpsfedb383c.jpgP1120289_zps8aa9686e.jpg

     
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