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Wales, the Midlands & South West England Weather Discussion


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11°C and sunny today.

MO warning out for some of us on Tuesday.

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Sure is looking wet, around 2 inches for some falling on saturated ground. Plenty more to come after too. 135.5mm already this month, should get above the 205mm average sometime next week if the charts are right.

 

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Looking at the models the idea of an Easterly looks increasingly to be having legs. Whether it ushers in a freezing cold snowy spell or just 2-3 damp grey raw days before the Atlantic steamrolls in again however remains up in the air.  The persistent lump of the PV our NW is worrying though, this should ensure a strong, active Atlantic so any block is going to have its work cut out. We had a similar situation last winter with that pesky PV to our NW throwing too much energy at us. I really want that gone before I'm confident on a cold spell.

 

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The PV is disrupted... but the pieces haven't fallen kindly.

 

I think Met Office will be closest to the mark in the end

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Nov 2014 to Sunday 7 Dec 2014:

 

Current indications show that low pressure is likely to be located to the west or southwest of the UK, and as such the most likely scenario is for unsettled weather to continue in most places as we head into December. Rainfall amounts may well be a little above average, more especially in west or northwestern parts of the UK, and temperatures look as though they will remain near or slightly above average. However, some brighter days are still likely and there is still a chance of overnight frost and fog, albeit it patchy, during any of these quieter spells of weather.

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A gloriously sunny day here, dry and temps got up to 11.8°C around the middle of the day.  There was a slight ground frost initially and also a bit of mist.

 

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Have to say the skies had a slight summery look to them this afternoon, despite only just scraping 10C. Some big cbs out west tracking over Cardiff way gave some good photo opportunities mid-afternoon. I'll post some photos later.

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Decent end to a great weekend weather wise, yesterday had the torrential rain, today's showers again catching some folk out. To end the day a great sharp outbreak of thunder, which had some cracking C-C lightning, and a really good mammatus display, had the neighbours out to watch as it changed shapes in front of them.

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Omg that was the worst thunder and lightning I think I've seen or heard! It hit a house,knocked electric off in the street,mad,but everything's calm now,hope it doesn't get that intense again,it was like the day after tomorrow,just hope we have snow to follow!

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Have to say the skies had a slight summery look to them this afternoon, despite only just scraping 10C. Some big cbs out west tracking over Cardiff way gave some good photo opportunities mid-afternoon. I'll post some photos later.

Funny you say that Mike as I thought similarly when out this afternoon, a mostly blue sky punctuated by towering CBs to the South and a few TCu to the NW. It wouldn't have looked out of place in the early evening of a hot summer day.

 

Not the worst Countryfile forecast because we (ok my immediate area) could end with 3 mostly decent days tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday however Tuesday and Friday will more than make up for that.

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Indeed Andy! Looks like a good day for a Bristol Channel streamer if the wind is exactly right. I often get thundery showers with hail/lightning etc. out of those at this time of year but you'll probably get the blue skies with good views of the cbs.

 

Quoted from the Storms thread:

 

Some photos of the train of cbs in the Bristol Channel and over South Wales this afternoon:

 

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