Wales, the Midlands & South West England Weather Discussion

[Mapantz]

17.1°C and cloudy at the moment. There has been sunny spells on and off though.

I'm expecting the MefOffice to put out a warning either today or tomorrow potential for 40 - 50mm in some localised spots, 30mm quite wide!y I suspect.

The NMM has been quite consistent, whereas the GFS has not. They do agree now though!

The GFS shows some very warm air advecting up from the south- theta-e chart showing high levels/buoyant air, so it's not surprising that it will be very wet. There is also some CAPE showing in the mix, some thunder cannot be ruled out either.

[Stormraider]

Can see there have been 2 strikes out Bridgnorth way. Anyone confirm?

[Mapantz]

Can see there have been 2 strikes out Bridgnorth way. Anyone confirm?

[egret]

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot_2014-08-23-14-13-57.png

Did you not catch that storm late this morning? Torrential at East Knighton at about 11:30 and the cloud had what looked like a bit of a funnel below it off one edge ( I only saw the tail edge of the cloud so cannot be sure if it had been a true funnel) It looked very black towards Wareham / Corfe

[conor123]

Really? Cloud well broken here, best spells of Sun for a few days.I wouldn't say it's been near the worst August I can remember (1992, 1993, 2008, 2010 were all worse), but the last 10-15 days have been one of the coldest spells I can remember in high summer. Along with early July 2000, late July 2005 and late August 1993.

Steady stream of showers here, heavier and more potent than recently to, not exceeded 15c once again thus far, sky gone very dark again now.

Edited August 23, 2014 by conor123

[Summer of 95]

Steady stream of showers here, heavier and more potent than recently to, not exceeded 15c once again thus far, sky gone very dark again now.

Yes I can see them missing me to the east. Feels nice enough in the sun but chilly again in that wind.

[TonyH]

Same here, yet again down to 13c and tipping it down, worst August in my 23 years by far.

Parts of the Midlands and indeed Wales have though missed the showers escaping with just a mm or 2 in the past week or so.

[TonyH]

What is remarkable about this notably cool August spell here is that is has nonetheless been a relatively dry and bright spell.

 

Ave maximum temp past 12 days 16.4c

Estimated sunshine past 12 days 72 hours

Rain total past 9 days: 21mm

Edited August 23, 2014 by TonyH

[Stormraider]

Very heavy rain and small hail here in Broseley, roads like rivers...

Edited August 23, 2014 by Stormraider

[TonyH]

Its east of you where its a shocker, going to be bad rain here later, tuesday am is my worst so far

If a couple of mm from a scattering of showers is a shocker well..

Edited August 23, 2014 by TonyH

[Mapantz]

Did you not catch that storm late this morning? Torrential at East Knighton at about 11:30 and the cloud had what looked like a bit of a funnel below it off one edge ( I only saw the tail edge of the cloud so cannot be sure if it had been a true funnel) It looked very black towards Wareham / Corfe

I saw it on the radar and could see it was dark your way too. No measurable rain here, just the odd few spots. :)It has been pretty nice again, good sunny spells and a max of 19.4°CWe have been very lucky here with the good weather hanging on. I won't deny though, I'm looking toward to a good washout on Monday- shame it is on the bank holiday though. :12Z GFS showing a bit more consistency now..

[BlueHedgehog074]

Been a couple of heavy showers in Solihull today. I wasn't expecting it really.

[Evening thunder]

The Met Office forecast for the SW tonight is quite interesting for August:

 

'A dry evening with some late sunshine. Temperatures falling sharply under the influence of clearing skies and light winds, leading to a grass frost in prone rural spots overnight. Cloud is likely to spread into western areas by dawn. Minimum Temperature 2 Â°C.'

 

Although the forecast I use for a nearby town is actually a degree higher (7c verses 6c) than last week when we had 3.4c here. 

Not sure if we will get lower here or not. 3.0c in 2010 to beat to break my August record.

 

Maxima of 18.6c today with sunny spells, quite sunny now. We haven't had any maxima below 18c during this spell and very little rain at all since the 14th. Not bad if you don't mind the cool temperatures really.

 

Tomorrow looks like it may actually be the worst day of this spell here, with it forecast to cloud over limiting maxima to 15c.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Cactus]

A couple of light showers here, didn't even register.

Quite a nice sunny evening but still breezy.

Looks like another cold night.

[Eugene]

Parts of the Midlands and indeed Wales have though missed the showers escaping with just a mm or 2 in the past week or so.

 

 

Yes Tony, its been extremely dry here and the countryside is exceptionally dry, love walking without worrying about mud, just fantastic weather, cant see why anybody hasn't enjoyed it unless your bottesford whose obsessed with humid air.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes Tony, its been extremely dry here and the countryside is exceptionally dry, love walking without worrying about mud, just fantastic weather, cant see why anybody hasn't enjoyed it unless your bottesford whose obsessed with humid air.

 

I've kinda enjoyed it, but rain sucks, less than heat but still unpleasant, trouble is hot weather is coming back on 2 Sept, and monday looks a washout, but maybe some decent days inbetween including tomorrow

 

what sucks more ppl, rain or heat?

[conor123]

Sun's finally made an appearance, about time, here's hoping GFS is right for next weekend!

[J10]

Not been on here much lately for a number of reasons.

 

A rather strange week here, 5 of the past 6 days, has seen the following pattern. A sunny start to the day (often 100% clear blue skies), with brisk NW winds. creating cloud formation from the NW turning the weather to sunny intervals by mid/late morning. A spell of mostly cloudy weather/odd sunny intervals around early afternoon for a few hours, before turning much sunnier again during the afternoon, with often clear blue skies by evening. with a few showers, on Monday, the other days mostly dry.

 

The exception being Thursday with more in way of cloud generally and some sharp showers for the late afternoon/evening.

 

Not hot by any means, and cool to be blunt for August especially in the wind. but OK in the sunnier weather.

 

So while August 14 will go down as cool and wet, it may still end up sunnier than average.

[BlueHedgehog074]

what sucks more ppl, rain or heat?

For me, it would probably have to be rain... unless it's heavy/torrential and turns into snow. In fact, seeing rain turning to snow in Winter brings a real sense of excitement knowing that the raindrops are getting less and less, and the snowflakes are getting more and more. Edited August 23, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[MP-R]

For me, it would probably have to be rain... unless it's heavy/torrential and turns into snow. In fact, seeing rain turning to snow in Winter brings a real sense of excitement knowing that the raindrops are getting less and less, and the snowflakes are getting more and more.

 

Agreed. Don't know if the same happened where you are/were on 11th January 2008, but in Bristol at least it went heavy rain > sleet > blizzard in the space of 45 minutes. Evaporative cooling must have been the culprit there.

[Bobby]

Looking wet tomorrow night into Monday, a good inch of rain in places, 30-40mm for some higher ground spots.

 

Clear blue skies here, going to be chilly tonight I think with the still air.

[Mapantz]

Interesting chart from an American WX site. A higher resolution GFS one at 27km

Accumulative rainfall in the next 72hrs.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Agreed. Don't know if the same happened where you are/were on 11th January 2008, but in Bristol at least it went heavy rain > sleet > blizzard in the space of 45 minutes. Evaporative cooling must have been the culprit there.

Not sure if I remember that event. But looking back at the Wetterzentrale GFS chart archive, it seemed to show a secondary Low swinging up from the South-West and then crashing into the North-Sea on the 12th with a cold North-Westerly flow tucking in behind. So any rain that may have occurred here could have contained some back-edge snow or something. It's possible that the airmass at the start might have been cold enough for it to start as sleet or snow here. But like you, it probably would have had to rely on Evaporative Cooling by having heavy precipitation, as it looks fairly marginal.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feb 11th this year another example, my only lying snow of last winter

[BlueHedgehog074]

Feb 11th this year another example, my only lying snow of last winter

Same. It just felt like one of those Winter's that was really just Autumn in disguise. Edited August 23, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine