Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

One has to look at what Dec 2010 brought though, so is the extra snowcover better?

 

BFTP

[SteveB]

December 2010 was the second coldest December on record @ -0.7c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

December 2010 was the second coldest December on record @ -0.7c

Indeed, and the snowcover was a lot less than this year...

 

BFTP

[SteveB]

We could hope if December does turn out cold - with the extra snow cover this year maybe it will help the cold extend in to January?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

We could hope if December does turn out cold - with the extra snow cover this year maybe it will help the cold extend in to January?

December 2010 can keep that record  cold , it would be painful beating it! 

 

 

 

But do we get a proper winter this year?!

 

January 15th  2011 

 

 

Room for improvements this time?!

Euro peak

 

December 19th 2010 

Edited November 10, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[SteveB]

December 2010 was cold, but I get the distinct feeling many on here won't be happy until we see DJF all returning negative CET monthly values. 

 

I'll be happy with some snow in each of the months - especially around Christmas.

[throwoff]

Today compared to the same day in 2010 shows a huge increase in the southern lying snow for this year, in fact as shown on the third image it didn't push that far south till the beast awoke and we began to get pummelled.

 

Now - 

 

 

2010 -

 

 

Late nov 2010 - The ice then is not much more ahead of where we are now.

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Today compared to the same day in 2010 shows a huge increase in the southern lying snow for this year, in fact as shown on the third image it didn't push that far south till the beast awoke and we began to get pummelled.

 

Now - 

 

 

2010 -

 

 

Late nov 2010 - The ice then is not much more ahead of where we are now.

 

will be interesting to compare in 18 days if it still compares ...will not throw in the towel if does not!   

[picog]

Today compared to the same day in 2010 shows a huge increase in the southern lying snow for this year, in fact as shown on the third image it didn't push that far south till the beast awoke and we began to get pummelled.

Now -

2010 -

Late nov 2010 - The ice then is not much more ahead of where we are now.

So in about 20 days, the snow cover increased hugely across western Russia and most of NW Europe in 2010. That was an enormous increase. In fact, it almost doubled in surface area, especially if you include N America. Edited November 10, 2014 by picog

[KyleHenry]

The MOD thread is starting to crack up due to short sightedness.

The next 10 days over N America with Arctic incursion will amplify the N Atlantic pattern with rain and above average temps for UK. Flooding likely.

Snow coverage to N America will be high. No advance to Western Europe until minimum 2 weeks as this process plays out and only then can we be expecting to see westward advance of snow line.

Personally I think 5 weeks for UK to be included/ on the boundary line if all factors play out. Sand bags at the ready it's the unfortunate side to us getting cold but a necessary part

[throwoff]

So in about 20 days, the snow cover increased hugely across western Russia and most of NW Europe in 2010. That was an enormous increase. In fact, it almost doubled in surface area, especially if you include N America.

 

It went fast in 2010, my point is more in the southerly track of the snow, we are massively ahead of 2010 right now.

 

The mod thread is falling to pieces atm, some really seasoned posters are going mad!

[throwoff]

Today we have had some big meltback -

 

 

In 2010 the snow had got more into Scandi by now but the snow and ice were both in orders of magnitude behind this year -

 

[gottolovethisweather]

More melt back to come over the next couple of days is certainly possible. However, later into the weekend and into the following week, things should improve, especially towards the Northeast and Eastern Europe. Run the forecast animation for Saturday onwards on Weather Online, which I've linked to previously in order to see what I mean. 

Edited November 11, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[keithlucky]

Cold grips 2 million sq km of Siberia and 35 decrees below zero and its not even winter yet !some parts of Russia even colder.

1 Summit (Greenland) 04416 -58.7°F 2 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -54.6°F 3 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -54.2°F 4 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -54.0°F 5 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -53.9°F 6 Iema (Russia) 24477 -53.0°F 7 Hatyryk-Homo (Russia) 24643 -51.9°F 8 Berdigestyah (Russia) 24758 -51.5°F 9 Ust-Nera (Russia) 24585 -51.3°F 10 Bestyahskaya Zveroferma (Russia) 24449 -51.2°F 11 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -49.0°F 12 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -48.5°F 13 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -48.1°F 14 Tompo (Russia) 24671 -47.6°F 15 Njurba (Russia) 24639 -47.2°F.http://www.daculaweather.com/4_world_extremes.php?extremes=North

Edited November 12, 2014 by keithlucky

[throwoff]

Nice big new blob moving west. Big growth in Scandi, and Canada will be whited out soon enough I think!

 

 

Comparing to 2010 we see we are still a LONG way ahead, the next 2 weeks will be fascinating

 

 

In just 18 days it went from the above to this -

 

 

It is also worth a look at last year, while the difference is snow is immediately striking between this and today the ice is another world. 

 

 

As always this is just 1 of the many factors we need right to get the snow here but I think we can comfortably say this year will end up ahead of 2010 in terms of overall average coverage, even a significant meltback couldn't stop that now. Every day that passes with this much snow the air is cooling over a swathe of the world and this means if and when the other things click into place we have the chance to get hit hard.

Edited November 12, 2014 by throwoff

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Nice big new blob moving west. Big growth in Scandi, and Canada will be whited out soon enough I think!

 

 

Comparing to 2010 we see we are still a LONG way ahead, the next 2 weeks will be fascinating

 

 

In just 18 days it went from the above to this -

 

 

It is also worth a look at last year, while the difference is snow is immediately striking between this and today the ice is another world. 

 

 

As always this is just 1 of the many factors we need right to get the snow here but I think we can comfortably say this year will end up ahead of 2010 in terms of overall average coverage, even a significant meltback couldn't stop that now. Every day that passes with this much snow the air is cooling over a swathe of the world and this means if and when the other things click into place we have the chance to get hit hard.

The only thing that is kind of worrying to me is the lack of snow over Norway etc , yes it's well developed in Eurasia and Central Russia , but this next wk or so really is quite mild across Europe in general , and Norway and parts of Scandi is still quite bare , but I undertand it's more about the October build up of snow that's important ?

[throwoff]

As I understand it, and I am very much an enthusiastic amateur but have read a great many posts on the subject from members far more qualified the growth in the second two weeks of October 'appear' to have a correlation to snow and temperatures in the UK over the rest of the winter.

 

I think this is very much a debatable thing but clearly these images show that the snow and ice have built and therefore cold air is sitting over a huge swathe of the Northern Landmasses now.

 

Today we have seen a bit of the expected melt in the West but a massive growth in the East as well as a chunk of new sea ice formed. Scandi remains almost identical.

 

Edited November 13, 2014 by throwoff

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Looking at Rovaniemi webcams, it's very cold in Finland at the moment, they're getting -7C to -9C as typical daily temps. This is very early for them. No snow though

Too cold for snow! needs to warm a bit first! http://www.yr.no/place/Finland/Laponia/Rovaniemi/hour_by_hour.html

-14c Got the tree up I see!

 

 

Almost a case of  the polar express  being  stolen from Rovaniemi  and taken to Switzerland here at 17.30!  13/11/14 https://www.webcam-4insiders.com/de/Wetter-Kleine%20Scheidegg/1026-Kleine%20Scheidegg-Wetter.php

Edited November 14, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

USA is the snow boss at the minute  3 day update 

 

Having said that, the forecast was not that amazing! 

on http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/11/13/weather-forecast-friday/18996289/

 

update http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harsh-cold-to-freeze-northeast/37451243

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/breaking-widespread-accumulat/3182336076001

Edited November 17, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[picog]

USA is the snow boss at the minute 2014317.png

 

Having said that, the forecast was not that amazing! 

on http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/11/13/weather-forecast-friday/18996289/

I see western Europe is at a deficit compared with normal, hopefully that's nothing to wory about at this stage. Would have prefered to see the blue excess in Europe than the usa.

[summer blizzard]

Can somebody post the Cohen November chart, this looks fairly good.

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I see western Europe is at a deficit compared with normal, hopefully that's nothing to wory about at this stage. Would have prefered to see the blue excess in Europe than the usa.

 

Me too but Its mainly in Western Russia in that image and has happened before 2010 same date.

 

Just need Scandinavia to get its act together. next 3 days 

 

3 and 6 day update now going for places like poland..progress?!  

Edited November 17, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Daniel*]

14th:

13th:

Considerable gains for Finland rather 'static' at the moment for most of the Northern Hemisphere.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest weekly sea ice extent update is here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3070843

[Mark Bayley]

Thought i'd post an extract of my winter forecast from the seasonal thread as its quite relevant to the snow cover topic. I've added some further analysis that i didn't include in the forecast. I did some reconstructions of the 1000mb Geopotential heights for the lowest/highest October snow cover years. For the highest snow cover years I narrowed down to those months that occur within the easterly phase of the QBO. A strong signal for positive height anomalies near Greenland/ across the Arctic is present during high snow cover years that occur in the easterly phase for the QBO (+SC/easterly QBO). In contrast a strong signal for lower than normal heights is present for years that occur during low snow cover years and the westerly phase of the QBO (-SC/westerly QBO). A greater southerly track of the jet stream is also found.

Left: -SC/easterly QBO Right : +SC/westerlyQBO

 

Left: -SC/easterly QBO Right : +SC/westerlyQBO

 

 

An stronger signal for positive height anomalies occurs in January during +SC/easterly QBO years. In contrast, lower than normal heights (i.e. +AO) occurs during -SC/westerly QBO. The mean jet stream position during +SC/eastly QBO years is south of the UK, which contrasts to -SC/westerly QBO years, where it is across the UK (i.e. a wet and often mild winter results!)

Left: -SC/easterly QBO Right : +SC/westerlyQBO

 

Left: -SC/easterly QBO Right : +SC/westerlyQBO

 

 

Similarly a strong signal for positive height anomalies during +SC/easterly QBO years is found in February. In contrast, lower than normal heights (i.e. +AO) occurs during low snow cover/westerly QBO years. I forgot to reconstruct mean jet stream position, however it is clear that during +SC/easterly QBO years that the jet stream is to the south of the UK based upon the 1000mb geopotential height anomalies.

Left: -SC/easterly QBO Right : +SC/westerlyQBO

 

 

The mean index value for the AO during +SC/easterly QBO years is; -1.01 December (n12); -0.97 January (n12); -1.44 February (n10). No strong signal for the NAO exists (albeit a weak negative signal for December and February); -0.31 December; 0 January; -0.33 February.

 

The mean index value for the AO during -SC/westerly QBO years is; 0.34 December (n9); 0.56 January( n8) ; interestingly -0.42 during February (n). So a good signal for +AO. Importantly sample sizes are small, with data from 1968-2013, however still, it shows that during good snow cover years, where the QBO is easterly, we have a good chance of gaining a decent -AO month. Whereas in contrast, during low snow cover years/westerly qbo, chances of -AO are significantly lower, with February producing the strongest likelihood. I'm sure i read however that strat warming events are more likely towards the end of the winter in westerly QBO. 

 

I further analysed the top/lowest 20 snow cover months and removed QBO influence. Mean AO index values where; -0.46 December; -0.66 January; -0.85 February. So as winter progresses, the chance of -AO increases. For the lowest 20 snow cover months the results where; 0.37 for December; 0.07 January; 0.13 February. So a reasonable signal for +AO during December, no real forcing during January and a weak signal for +AO during February, which highlights the possible  importance of the QBO phase during this month if snow cover is low (albeit other factors important too)

 

Attached are 1000mb geopotential height anomalies for Jan/Feb following the highest/lowest 20 years of snow cover. I did have 1000mb for all months although i've sadly messed that all up. Graphics in order are 1000mb Jan highest snow cover years; 1000mb lowest snow cover years; 1000mb Feb highest snow cover years; 1000mb lowest snow cover years. Dataset 20 months each

A good signal for higher than normal heights across the Arctic is present during January and February.  

 

The relationship between the NAO and snow cover seems strongest during low snow cover years. The mean NAO index value during the lowest 20 years of snow cover is; 0.36 December; 0.43 January; 0.5 February. During high snow cover years, no clear signal is present, except a weak signal for negative NAO during December; -0.25 December; 0.04 January; 0.09 February. 

 

If i had the time i would have liked to have done some statistical testing, as this is really observational analysis. Hopefully i can do more of this during my dissertation. A basic pearsons correlation between October snow cover extent and winter AO is 0.3 during December; 0.4 during January, and 0.37 in February. January was statistically significant at the 1% level, as was Febraury. December was statistically signficant at the 5% level. A simple correlation highlights some relationship between extent and AO, most notably January. This correlation is reasonable at 0.4. The re-analysis also shows a signal for positive height anomalies across the Arctic during January and February (QBO removed), whereas during low snow cover years, the signal is less clear. When narrowed down with QBO influence, a much clearer pattern of -AO during positive snow cover/easterly QBO years is found, while +AO for the contrast. This year is a high snow cover year, with an easterly QBO.  It would be interesting to see if i can plot or create a dataset analysing the rate of snow cover advance, as correlations are reportedly much higher.   

Edited November 17, 2014 by Mark Bayley