Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Greenland is so cold no wonder the ice is growing there.. wonder if it will head for Iceland again this winter? Super snow there as well http://www.yr.no/place/Greenland/Other/Danmarkshavn/hour_by_hour_detailed.html

 

Thinking its too early and still not cold enough for the coming Russian  snow to make an inpact on the S.A.I but at lest it should look pretty for a few days.

 

Also like the way the snow points at and  dreams of  getting to Texas guess it will have to wait at least a  month before making a proper effort!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree with Bryan, with HP set to settle itself to our E there will be a lot of LP being fed down into central Russia so I anticipate a lot of snow gain to appear.....in October! :-)

 

BFTP

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It's a much different set up this year round thankfully , a lot more excitement to come from now for the build up and then the main course hopefully !

[bryan629]

Heres the latest, 

Pretty good gains today....canada seems to be doing really well too 

 

Edited October 4, 2014 by bryan629

[BornFromTheVoid]

Impressive positive anomalies on both sides of the Arctic

 

Edited October 4, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[DELETED]

Impressive positive anomalies on both sides of the Arctic

 

Hey there! what does this indicate is it a good sign for a cold winter ?

[Norrance]

Snow reached Reykjavic now. 

 

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/04/first-snow-reykjavik

 

A snow cover on the higher Scottish hills too this morning.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hey there! what does this indicate is it a good sign for a cold winter ?

 

Doesn't indicate anything for our winter yet. The snow cover trends further into October should say a bit more.

[bryan629]

Hey there! what does this indicate is it a good sign for a cold winter ?

HI Ben, 

What we are looking for is something called the SAI ( snow advance index) This is or can be important for Europe and us on our little island. 

There is a theory that the earlier snow cover over the continent the better, this is because as snow covers the continent to our east, high pressure has a better chance of building , Its called the Cohen effect and has a lot to do with a very cold surface and teleconnections from that into the atmosphere , take a look at this image i posted earlier its the most recent and updates every 24hrs.

 

 

At the moment the most snow cover in Russia is well to the east , what we would like to see is the snow cover advancing west toward Europe and into it ( incidentley it looks like it will over the coming few days) . 

Snow cover especially this month is very important for those teleconnections to have a chance of having developing and have an effect on the atmosphere over those regions. 

When and if, a high builds over Russia and eastern Europe, the high can drift far enough our way to block the atlantic and produce easterly winds direct from Siberia and northern blocking. 

 

It is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination but the possibilty remains. 

There are many other variables to be considered that can impact our weather type in winter. 

Not to quote a supermarket slogan but "every little helps" 

Hope this helps Ben . 

Edited October 4, 2014 by bryan629

[summer blizzard]

Chicago got its third earliest snowfall.

[blizzard81]

Chicago got its third earliest snowfall.

Is this in the last few days?

[Gael_Force]

The next week looks to extend the snow cover in the important below 60 degrees sector.

 

GFS 12z forecast to +192.

 

 

[DELETED]

HI Ben, 

What we are looking for is something called the SAI ( snow advance index) This is or can be important for Europe and us on our little island. 

There is a theory that the earlier snow cover over the continent the better, this is because as snow covers the continent to our east, high pressure has a better chance of building , Its called the Cohen effect and has a lot to do with a very cold surface and teleconnections from that into the atmosphere , take a look at this image i posted earlier its the most recent and updates every 24hrs.

 

cursnow_asiaeuropefri.gif

 

At the moment the most snow cover in Russia is well to the east , what we would like to see is the snow cover advancing west toward Europe and into it ( incidentley it looks like it will over the coming few days) . 

Snow cover especially this month is very important for those teleconnections to have a chance of having developing and have an effect on the atmosphere over those regions. 

When and if, a high builds over Russia and eastern Europe, the high can drift far enough our way to block the atlantic and produce easterly winds direct from Siberia and northern blocking. 

 

It is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination but the possibilty remains. 

There are many other variables to be considered that can impact our weather type in winter. 

Not to quote a supermarket slogan but "every little helps" 

Hope this helps Ben . 

Amazing reply Bryan!! thanks

[damianslaw]

Based on the Cohen Theory - it is the second half of October when you want to see rapid snow cover advancement westwards to help build one building block for increasing chances of colder conditions during winter. 2010 and 2012 saw rapid snow cover advancement westwards towards western Russian border and over Scandinavia, whereas last year whilst we saw a rapid snow cover advancement first half of October, it ground to halt mid month making no further advancement across the Urals . Indeed the Urals tend to be a major barrier, you want to see snow west of the Urals.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Based on the Cohen Theory - it is the second half of October when you want to see rapid snow cover advancement westwards to help build one building block for increasing chances of colder conditions during winter. 2010 and 2012 saw rapid snow cover advancement westwards towards western Russian border and over Scandinavia, whereas last year whilst we saw a rapid snow cover advancement first half of October, it ground to halt mid month making no further advancement across the Urals . Indeed the Urals tend to be a major barrier, you want to see snow west of the Urals.

I would love to know why 2010 snow advancement was so good...but also able to be so bad; for example 5th Nov

Is this in the last few days?

yes

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-20141004-story.html

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Snow-Spotted-in-Chicago-as-City-Prepares-for-Record-Temps-278112851.html

Edited October 4, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[summer blizzard]

Based on the Cohen Theory - it is the second half of October when you want to see rapid snow cover advancement westwards to help build one building block for increasing chances of colder conditions during winter. 2010 and 2012 saw rapid snow cover advancement westwards towards western Russian border and over Scandinavia, whereas last year whilst we saw a rapid snow cover advancement first half of October, it ground to halt mid month making no further advancement across the Urals . Indeed the Urals tend to be a major barrier, you want to see snow west of the Urals.

 

Is it not south of 60N rather than how far west?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

The next week looks to extend the snow cover in the important below 60 degrees sector.

 

GFS 12z forecast to +192.

Talking of importance,I see the 0.8 Correlations importance peeks at 53 degrees north (if it works  ) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011GL049626/asset/supinfo/grl28662-sup-0002-fs01.pdf?v=1&s=25752f79fe57b690307343baed987015d8cd24c4

But that's based over all longitudes so it must be even higher for us as it seems to snow so easily around that latitude in the North American continent..edit maybe I'm muddled.

Edited October 5, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[lorenzo]

Great find Polar Gael - didn't know that Instant Maps extrapolated Potential Snowcover , Thanks !

 

Rate of SAI beyond (S) 60N as I understand it.

 

Siberian High is separate Teleconnection important for strat wave activity precursor in similar conjunction with Aleutian Low.

 

This grid has Jones & Judah Cohen loading for Siberian High. I love how the Siberian High is lost in translation on the OPI forum... Siberian Bear etc etc...

 

What a beauty.. proper nosebleed High.

 

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Just a little look into projected snowfall to our east in the very near future....Quite a lot of the white stuff western russia and eastern russia. 

 

T+150  gfsnh-2-150.png

 

 

Then deep into FI 

 

 

T+250 gfsnh-2-252.png

any update on this or a hyper link ,I cant find the charts and it would be nice to see a hint of progress.

 

On a different topic...is the ice refreeze doing well? around Greenland it looks nice and thick to me http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Edited October 5, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[SteveB]

Yes it is, on the up

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

Edited October 5, 2014 by SteveB

[bryan629]

any update on this or a hyper link ,I cant find the charts and it would be nice to see a hint of progress.

 

On a different topic...is the ice refreeze doing well? around Greenland it looks nice and thick to me ice.png http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Morning, 

 

Heres the link , which someone kindly gave me about a week ago  http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

heres the update too.

 

Friday                                                                   Saturday

 

it is possible of some westward advancing in the next few days as the GFS +72 is showing.

 

 

[Interitus]

Great find Polar Gael - didn't know that Instant Maps extrapolated Potential Snowcover , Thanks !

 

Rate of SAI beyond (S) 60N as I understand it.

 

Siberian High is separate Teleconnection important for strat wave activity precursor in similar conjunction with Aleutian Low.

 

This grid has Jones & Judah Cohen loading for Siberian High. I love how the Siberian High is lost in translation on the OPI forum... Siberian Bear etc etc...

 

What a beauty.. proper nosebleed High.

 

Jones and Cohen Siberian Composite.PNG

MandFSiberianHighs.png

 

Impressive high pressure in that image from Nov 87 but a good choice of year to show that it is only one factor within the bigger picture as the strat vortex was strong that winter (west QBO), and the CET was mild (46th of 356 years) - fairly similar to last winter.

[MKN]

https://www.flickr.com/photos/28183399@N03/15440456965/in/set-72157648315931966

 

Snow in Scotland yesterday

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Morning, 

 

Heres the link , which someone kindly gave me about a week ago  http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

heres the update too.

 

Friday                                                                   Saturday

cursnow_asiaeuropefri.gifcursnow_asiaeuropesat.gif

 

it is possible of some westward advancing in the next few days as the GFS +72 is showing.

 

gfsnh-2-72.pnggfsnh-0-72.png gfsnh-1-72.png

Still looking hopeful 6 hours later   

[throwoff]

It's all about the back end of this month, last year many of us (myself very much included) were going wild at the gains in early October where it was ahead of record pace, it then fell over completely in mid month and well we all know how that ended up!