Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[bryan629]

Interesting stuff, with the cold pools starting to show up on weather charts and now your projected snowfall chart.

I'm thinking (searching for   )  maybe  the weather gods will give us a picture similar to or better than  2010 over the next few weeks with Siberia , Russia  and Scandinavia getting a quality amounts of snow to help the snow advance index along. 

 

Here's the benchmark

ims2010288_asiaeurope.gif

Thanks for that, i have saved the image to my " for future reference folder"  which i will re post on october 15th along with the current charts on the day for comparison.

The Gfs 6z today was very encouraging, but deep deep into FI... almost threw an omega block over Greenland with cold air flooding out of the arctic. 

ECM seems to want to place a block over scandi...

i think a change in the weather pattern is comming but looking out into deep FI its certainly not looking like it will be from the atlantic..FOR NOW!! 

[Gavin Hannah]

An article which kind of details what many aleady know/suspect.

 

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26278-crazy-weather-traced-to-arctics-impact-on-jet-stream.html

 

And this summer / autumn is evidence of the jet stream slowing/meandering more often, allowing for longer settled weather or if your unlucky, prolonged wilder weather. It looks like we are heading for a very settled first half of autum away from the very north-western areas.

Edited September 27, 2014 by IBringTheHammer

[bryan629]

IBTH... sorry but i dont know what you mean by " what we already know or suspect" the jet is usually pretty quiet in summer and the first month of Autumn,, because of a much lesser temperature gradient between the pole and the equator , we dont suspect that, we already know it. 

what happens in the comming few months is the temperature gradient between the pole and the equator is going to change significantly enough to power the jet stream, 

the great big burning question on everyones mind is which way is the jet going to go ...??  stay north or head south....  or run straight across us like last winter.. no model or human mind can for the the time being ( until about november lol ) have any essence on it trajectory and meanders. 

 

Im  not having a pop at you, i think your a great poster too, so respect for you, 

 

 

its just  images like this from the link above wind me up because tropical air is always wanting to return to the poles as much as cold air wants to escape from it 

We all know what fires up the jet stream, and yet some geniuearse has decided to upload a chart that shows why the jet stream actually exists and blames it on global warming for heavens sake.

 

Edit : The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, an effect enhanced when the sea ice that normally cools the Arctic air melts away. Because of this, the air currents that come from that region are getting disproportionately warmer too, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and southerly winds, and thereby weakening the jet stream itself. "The winds have weakened by 10 per cent over the past three decades in the west-to-east wind of the jet stream," says Francis.

 

What a load of Tosh, twice as fast as the rest of the planet hahahahahahah

Edited September 27, 2014 by bryan629

[bryan629]

some slight gains as well as losses

 

 

does anyone know if these maps update over the weekend?

Edited September 27, 2014 by bryan629

[BornFromTheVoid]

IBTH... sorry but i dont know what you mean by " what we already know or suspect" the jet is usually pretty quiet in summer and the first month of Autumn,, because of a much lesser temperature gradient between the pole and the equator , we dont suspect that, we already know it. 

what happens in the comming few months is the temperature gradient between the pole and the equator is going to change significantly enough to power the jet stream, 

the great big burning question on everyones mind is which way is the jet going to go ...??  stay north or head south....  or run straight across us like last winter.. no model or human mind can for the the time being ( until about november lol ) have any essence on it trajectory and meanders. 

 

Im  not having a pop at you, i think your a great poster too, so respect for you, 

 

dn26278-2_1199.jpg

 

its just  images like this from the link above wind me up because tropical air is always wanting to return to the poles as much as cold air wants to escape from it 

We all know what fires up the jet stream, and yet some geniuearse has decided to upload a chart that shows why the jet stream actually exists and blames it on global warming for heavens sake.

 

Edit : The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, an effect enhanced when the sea ice that normally cools the Arctic air melts away. Because of this, the air currents that come from that region are getting disproportionately warmer too, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and southerly winds, and thereby weakening the jet stream itself. "The winds have weakened by 10 per cent over the past three decades in the west-to-east wind of the jet stream," says Francis.

 

What a load of Tosh, twice as fast as the rest of the planet hahahahahahah

 

Why is it a load of tosh? The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

The image you laugh at is showing what happens when the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes is reduced, i.e., a more wavy and slower moving jet stream, which occurs often during the summer, but some evidence suggests it's happening in other seasons now too.

As sea ice reduces during the summer, the newly opened Arctic ocean absorbs a lot of energy during the 24 hour daylight. During the autumn, that energy is released, causing the surface air temperatures to increase relative to average. This means that the temperature gradient to more southerly latitudes is reduced, which modifies the jet stream, just like in the summer. Only this effect is now occurring slightly more in autumn and winter due to the energy released from the Arctic ocean.

 

Here's a well known study on the topic http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf

 

Here's the September to December temperature trends for north of 70^oN

 

I think you'll agree, the warming trend is very strong. Given that the temperature difference between lower latitudes and the polar regions is one of the fundamental driving forces of all the weather on the planet, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that this rapid change could alter our weather patterns.

Edited September 27, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Ice Day]

 

does anyone know if these maps update over the weekend?

 

Yes they do and here they are.  Some nice 'filling in' going on in Russia.  Keep it coming

 

Yesterday vs today

 

[bryan629]

HI BFTV, 

 

 

Its really exciting me to see this chart is showing a increase of ambient air temperature in the polar regions whizzing up from -17 in 1990 to a balmy -12 in 2013/14   .... Oh look its on it way down too...

 

Seriously though , this chart only goes back to the late 1940`s , its not much of a record is it ? 

i cannot see any corrolation to the ambient temperature of the northern  pole to the strength and/or direction of the jet stream in relation the the weather types at mid latitudes.

Even from 1990 0nwards as your chart shows it warming at the poles there have been some significant cold winters here as well as mild ones, but on saying that , the chart is showing temperature profiles from September to December.

 

Do you have charts for November, December, January and February,,,,,no sunlight and persistant nocturnal cooling. 

 

 

 

 

 

[bryan629]

Not bad some pretty big gains in the past few days 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2014 by bryan629

[bryan629]

 

To be honest Lincoln snow storm these 2 images are not a world apart from each other , considering the time difference ..... 

[Yarmy]

Why is it a load of tosh? The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

The image you laugh at is showing what happens when the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes is reduced, i.e., a more wavy and slower moving jet stream, which occurs often during the summer, but some evidence suggests it's happening in other seasons now too.

As sea ice reduces during the summer, the newly opened Arctic ocean absorbs a lot of energy during the 24 hour daylight. During the autumn, that energy is released, causing the surface air temperatures to increase relative to average. This means that the temperature gradient to more southerly latitudes is reduced, which modifies the jet stream, just like in the summer. Only this effect is now occurring slightly more in autumn and winter due to the energy released from the Arctic ocean.

 

Here's a well known study on the topic http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf

 

Here's the September to December temperature trends for north of 70^oN

 

I think you'll agree, the warming trend is very strong. Given that the temperature difference between lower latitudes and the polar regions is one of the fundamental driving forces of all the weather on the planet, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that this rapid change could alter our weather patterns.

This all makes sense to me and is valuable information. A reduced North South upper air temp gradient implies a slacker weaker and southward trending polar jet. But perhaps this all belongs in the climate threads? I kind of prefer it when we all count pixels rancour-free and stare wistfully at scandinavian webcams. :-)

[LincolnSnowstorm]

cursnow_asiaeurope (1).gifpost-15601-0-09846500-1411826297_thumb.gif

 

To be honest Lincoln snow storm these 2 images are not a world apart from each other , considering the time difference ..... 

That's right I'm don't think I'm getting my hopes too high for that in a couple of weeks then the  next target... snow in Scandinavia and continuous  back to Siberia maybe that's asking for too much at the end of the month  so eyes on the first target.

 

stage 2 End of October

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

HI BFTV, 

 

6qTv4Er.png

 

Its really exciting me to see this chart is showing a increase of ambient air temperature in the polar regions whizzing up from -17 in 1990 to a balmy -12 in 2013/14   .... Oh look its on it way down too...

 

Seriously though , this chart only goes back to the late 1940`s , its not much of a record is it ? 

i cannot see any corrolation to the ambient temperature of the northern  pole to the strength and/or direction of the jet stream in relation the the weather types at mid latitudes.

Even from 1990 0nwards as your chart shows it warming at the poles there have been some significant cold winters here as well as mild ones, but on saying that , the chart is showing temperature profiles from September to December.

 

Do you have charts for November, December, January and February,,,,,no sunlight and persistant nocturnal cooling. 

 

3C jump in temperature is bound to have some impact? Every year has some variability, to claim it's on  downward trend after 2013 seems a little premature, no? 

 

Perhaps this record will convince you that the changes in the Arctic are noteworthy...

 

Have you read the journal article I posted? If the Arctic warms, the temperature gradient between the Arctic and lower latitudes will be reduced (as it is in summer) and the jet stream will be altered.

 

November

 

December

 

January

 

 

February

 

 

I'm not trying to say this is a dominant feature of out winter weather, simply that it is something we should now take account of.

 

This all makes sense to me and is valuable information. A reduced North South upper air temp gradient implies a slacker weaker and southward trending polar jet. But perhaps this all belongs in the climate threads? I kind of prefer it when we all count pixels rancour-free and stare wistfully at scandinavian webcams. :-)

 

I agree. I'd rather not have these kind of posts here, they would be better in the climate area. I'm just responding to a post dismissing the effect of reduced Arctic sea ice and Arctic amplification on our weather. If it wasn't mentioned, I wouldn't have felt the need to respond. But a lot of misinformation is spread about climate science, and i think it's important to clarify some of the issues

[Gavin Hannah]

Well, my post wasn't meant to start a climate debate, it was merely drawing a "loose" connection between the weather this autumn and the jet stream patterns.  I have to say, 24 degrees down here at the end of September is in my opinion something of a rare oddity. Even back home it's 17-18 degrees forecast today.  I remember of the last few years, the Atlantic is usually starting to wind up about now.  Two years ago, on the 5th Oct I believe, there was some decent snowfall on high ground in Scotland (And I think the Express bought Maddens snowmageddon forecast hook line and sinker).

 

My point being, if the Jet remains on it's long windy path through Autumn and into Winter, then we will get stuck under one type of weather pattern for a prolonged period. Simiar to last winters unrelenting Atlantic storms.

Edited September 28, 2014 by IBringTheHammer

[LincolnSnowstorm]

It's no coincidence that the positive anomalies are right next to where the ice has retreated most.

I'm not sure ..What about large negative anomalies?

 

 

 

....anyway looking super positive at the moment

 

[SteveB]

Well, my post wasn't meant to start a climate debate, it was merely drawing a "loose" connection between the weather this autumn and the jet stream patterns.  I have to say, 24 degrees down here at the end of September is in my opinion something of a rare oddity. Even back home it's 17-18 degrees forecast today.  I remember of the last few years, the Atlantic is usually starting to wind up about now.  Two years ago, on the 5th Oct I believe, there was some decent snowfall on high ground in Scotland (And I think the Express bought Maddens snowmageddon forecast hook line and sinker).

 

My point being, if the Jet remains on it's long windy path through Autumn and into Winter, then we will get stuck under one type of weather pattern for a prolonged period. Simiar to last winters unrelenting Atlantic storms.

 

Lets hope it not last Winters pattern, but a blocked cold and snowy pattern from November through to February

[Gavin Hannah]

Lets hope it not last Winters pattern, but a blocked cold and snowy pattern from November through to February

 

 

Indeed. I fear the winters of 09 and 10 are going to start turning into one of those " I remember way back when...." winters.  And I'm not counting the cold snap springs of recent years beacuase as fun as they are (unless your a farmer) they don't last as long.

[bobbydog]

hi guys, just out of interest-

 

2009

 

 

2010

 

 

2011

 

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

and today-

 

 

pretty good head start as we get into october.......

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The Jetstream is slowing down due to warming ARCTIC.....it wasn't told that last winter was it.  

 

BFTP

Edited September 29, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Its a bit of fun watching the snow in Svalbard, playing back the last few hours (posting 2.19pm) http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1220878595-Longyearbyen#action-play-day 

http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1350084604-Sveagruva#action-play-day  lamp post watching as it gets darker at the mine maybe!

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/hour_by_hour.html

[Gavin Hannah]

Well it looks like colder air by the weekend so could be the starting point for "autum actual". A more chop n change pattern developing perhaps?  Even the beeb weather guys are commenting on just how dry september has been.

 

 

and today-

 

 

pretty good head start as we get into october.......

 

 

 

Some very nice snow gains in Siberia. Even scandi has some of the white stuff.  It's going to be a long couple of months......

[picog]

hi guys, just out of interest-

 

2009

 

 

2010

 

 

2011

 

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

and today-

 

 

pretty good head start as we get into october.......

Striking how much snow there was in Canada in 2010. Much more than the other years you showed. At least this year we have a decent amount of snow showing in Canada.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Striking how much snow there was in Canada in 2010. Much more than the other years you showed. At least this year we have a decent amount of snow showing in Canada.

Maybe more than 2010 now!  .....update for Tuesday.

 

News report of it catching people out  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/snowfall-slows-traffic-in-whitehorse-1.2782718

The morning commute http://embed.scribblelive.com/MediaData.aspx?action=GetMediaFile&PostId=128587264

Edited October 1, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[stewfox]

Indeed. I fear the winters of 09 and 10 are going to start turning into one of those " I remember way back when...." winters.  And I'm not counting the cold snap springs of recent years beacuase as fun as they are (unless your a farmer) they don't last as long.

 

Can I count that as the first 'winters over post' 

[bryan629]

Not a great deal of change in the past 24hrs...a smidge of a loss if anything. snow cover that is , almost a case of spot the difference.

 

 

 

 

 

[bryan629]

First the bad news.... snow cover in Eastern Russia dissipating for now

 

Now the good news, canada has had some steady gains the and ice sheet is very evidently expanding now ( flick and compare sea ice on the eastern side of Greenland)  and the high pressure in central Russia is set to collapse , just like our high its going to be replaced with colder air and low pressure. we will be wet...for that part of the world its snowy... check the NH precip charts of GFS. within the reliable too.. good cover comming this weekend and early next week. 

 

 

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