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Skullzrulerz

Possible storm 'Bertha'

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The GFS this morning re. Bertha

 

0010 SW of Cork 994mb. heavy rain at centre.

 

0610 SW Wales coast 990mb

 

1210 Over Manchester 986mb

 

1810  Just east of Aberdeen 983mb

 

0011 Just east of n. Scotland 981mb

 

Summary

 

Needless to say as Bertha travels it's accompanied by a wodge of moderate rain and quite strong winds that obviously vary according to location and time

Edited by knocker

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Crazy that it's quite close to the event and pin pointing the actual location of the centre of the low is proving to be so difficult.

The metoffice do seem to want to take the low through C/S England and out north of the wash now, which is slightly further north than they were saying yesterday? Winds being worst tomorrow evening.

Edited by Darren Bown

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Without running the risk of scare mongering, don't get too relaxed. The ECM doesn't take the track further north. The GFS mean still shows 50 to 60mph gusts around the Cornwall/Devon coasts and in to Wales. I would keep a close eye on the forecasts.

Hi, thanks - still going to keep close eye on this.But does anybody know why bbc graphics for Hayle (cornwall)Is showing heavy rain for me tonight and wind (wind peaking at 27mph at 10:00am tomorrow- Sunday morning)Is this more of Saturday night / very early Sunday morning event for the Cornish coast ? This is a pain to watch this one, So confusing. Edited by 1976

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Damn it... will i have to take my gazebo's down? o_O

I like my gazebo's up in the garden. :-[

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It seems that the BBC are saying just blustery with rain being the main feature, others on this forum saying otherwise.... So basically no one knows  :cc_confused: Also I have family who are flying in Sunday evening to Gatwick, what do the reckon the winds will be like here on Sunday???Thanks in advance for the help  :good:

If the METO FAX comes off then Gatwick shouldn't be too badly affected. I personally think the rain will be the worst feature of this low and not the winds. That could be wishful thinking though. We need the rain down here but no-one needs strong winds with the trees in full leaf.

 

My only preparations will be to take my hanging baskets down for a day. Certainly not likely to be a storm in my opinion but then it shouldn't be in August.

 

Edit, my comments above are only my view of what will be the case in the very South of the country, maybe worse for other areas though.

Edited by coldfingers

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If the METO FAX comes off then Gatwick shouldn't be too badly affected. I personally think the rain will be the worst feature of this low and not the winds. That could be wishful thinking though. We need the rain down here but no-one needs strong winds with the trees in full leaf.

 

My only preparations will be to take my hanging baskets down for a day. Certainly not likely to be a storm in my opinion but then it shouldn't be in August.

I think if you don't want wind, you might be not too happy as they're going to be quite strong especially down here.

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I must say the models have still not pinned down the track or the power of it yet.

 

I think we know when the storm is near us.

 

And it could be stronger then forecast.

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I think if you don't want wind, you might be not too happy as they're going to be quite strong especially down here.

 

Hi William, as I edited above, I am only looking at my area and based on the METO fax charts. I am aware that other charts are showing a different track. I think this one will certainly be a 'wait and see' situation.

Personally the last thing I want is wind because my pear tree has a mass of fruit and also I have an apple tree and I so hate picking up damaged unripe fruit!! If this was autumn I would be hoping for a full scale storm as I love strong winds and wild weather.

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Does anybody know if there is satellite imagery available on Netweather. Want to see what is happening out in the Atlantic, re Bertha.

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GFS and ECMWF operationals still sticking to their guns, UKMO fax still in between. Not often you see such a gap in tracks at t+36 hours out.

 

Just goes to show the difficulties NWP has at simulating lows with ex-tropical storm energy in their make-up and whether or not the low phases favourably with upper trough catching it up from the west and whether or not it falls under the jet left exit on the cold side of the jet to deepen and move NE rather than track east as a shallow feature.

Edited by Nick F

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Does anybody know if there is satellite imagery available on Netweather. Want to see what is happening out in the Atlantic, re Bertha.

Go on sat24.com.

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Does anybody know if there is satellite imagery available on Netweather. Want to see what is happening out in the Atlantic, re Bertha.

 

This is a fairly good snapshot of what is going on, runs a loop over last hour. Mass of cloud to the SW is Bertha:

 

http://www.sat24.com/

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Here is the latest from the beeb for tomorrow

 

Posted Image

 

The rain will slowly clear from the south allowing some brighter weather to develop but that in turn could set off some further showers the wind gusts will be around 60mph for some tomorrow which will no doubt cause issues

 

Posted Image

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UKMO and GFS charts for noon tomorrow,GFS has the LP deeper and centered further North.

 

ukmo..  gfs..

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Local to me, concerns for Kingston Upon Hull and the East coast

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Ex-Hurricane-Bertha-Uncertain-outlook-Hull-risk/story-22219975-detail/story.html

Flooding possible with the Bertha storm coinciding with the Super Moon and 2nd highest 'Spring Tide'

 

B.

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Pretty sure this will whizz through quite quickly tomorrow especially in the south where rain soon clears to sun and showers, wetter further north as the low moves up there. Wind- wise slight chance of gales more especially towards the east coast pm, generally though probably nothing more than a rather windy day with gusts 30 to 40mph.

Edited by TonyH

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Nick, Is there a possibility this storm could produce a `sting jet` ?

Unlikely, as sting jets tends to occur with rapid cyclogenesis of lows that are associated with confluent troughs where there are rapid pressure rises causing a tight pressure gradient. RACY rarely occurs this time of year and besides, this low is slow deepener in a diffluent trough. Still going to be rather windy for early Aug though! Edited by Nick F

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Interesting..
Posted Image

Perhaps some embedded convection on the front as it moves east? Though like TonyH says the front will probably move through reasonably quickly for those south of the low centre

Somewhere around/just NW of the low centre will probably get a lot of rain, GFS 06z thinks the heaviest will be over the sea SW of Wales. 

Posted Image

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