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End of a tropical cyclone   Bertha has been declared extratropical by the NHC. The system has become embedded within a frontal zone extending from Nova Scotia to the Bahamas. An LLCC (low level circul

As a student to this fine science, that has got to be one of the most informative post I have had the pleasure of feasting my eyes over ( and I have feasted them over many other informative posts)Than

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This is how the beeb see the current track for Bertha upto Saturday, currently its the south most at risk of heavy rain & strong winds but this could well change over the next 24 to 36 hours

 

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The latest BBC graphic favours what I said the NMM14 was showing. The winds mainly having an effect in the southeastern quadrant, IoW up to Norfolk.

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The current fax charts don't show a back-bent occlusion from what I can see brickfielder?

 

No they dont and I am just looking at one model. There are large differences in the modelling still. So it just remains a remote possibility and even then conditions will not be suitable for a sting jet. 300hpa humidity charts suggest the dry air feed in to the system is not narrow enough to even think about one.

Edited by BrickFielder
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The one where the arrow goes into France which would mean they get the worst of the weather.

 

okay but the other two total 70% so that would appear to be the most likely area, but time will tell particularly in this case. It will be 24 hours before they can really be pretty sure of its track within say 75-100 miles.

Edited by johnholmes
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okay but the other two total 70% so that would appear to be the most likely area, but time will tell particularly in this case. It will be 24 hours before they can really be pretty sure of its track within say 75-100 miles.

 

Whats you gutt feeling John?

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Whats you gutt feeling John?

 

I try not to use that but it really is impossible to be sure this far out. I have just watched the senior man at Exeter and, maybe not unexpectedly, agree totally with him. He showed 3 possible tracks, he explained that the track is dependent on whether or not the feature engages the jet, well explained by Nick F and also by vorticity. Until that becomes clear, probably in the next 24 hours, then we have to accept there are 3 probabilities with the main probability that it will track somewhere between SE England and northern England on its way into the North Sea, be that the south or north of that sea?

sorry not a cough out but a realistic look at what may happen.

Ex hurricanes/tropical storms affecting the UK in August is not unusual, not frequent but not unusual. They are hugely difficult to get their precise track and depth as no model is yet able to deal with the enormous amounts of heat, moisture and energy they release into the temperate region once they get into the Atlantic. Effectively air from the Caribbean and the Arctic mixing.

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Thats the 00z on Netweather John

 

I am well aware it is, the chart you need to show is the one valid for Sunday 00z and 12z if you have it from the same source. Personally I would discount the chart shown as giving a real idea of what the ex tropical storm track or depth will be-just my view

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Ex hurricanes/tropical storms affecting the UK in August is not unusual, not frequent but not unusual. They are hugely difficult to get their precise track and depth as no model is yet able to deal with the enormous amounts of heat, moisture and energy they release into the temperate region once they get into the Atlantic. Effectively air from the Caribbean and the Arctic mixing.

 

Not an ex hurricane but the storm 35 years ago next week was a complete disaster.

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I think it's such a difficult situation to handle PR wise. Forecasters have said it is incredibly difficult to predict. Play it down and it's huge - they get slated for possibly endangering lives. They play it up and they get slated by the businesses that rely on their forecasts for losing them money (e.g airlines cancelling flights needlessly).

 

What to do in that situation? Is it a case of erring on the side of caution and putting warnings out that may be playing it up slightly?

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