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Good evening all. Popped into garden earlier and thought we had thunder but forgot shrewsbury flower show and fireworks. Anyways it's a real calm evening here, apparently that's set to change in the coming hours ;) enjoy the weather but also respect it

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End of a tropical cyclone   Bertha has been declared extratropical by the NHC. The system has become embedded within a frontal zone extending from Nova Scotia to the Bahamas. An LLCC (low level circul

As a student to this fine science, that has got to be one of the most informative post I have had the pleasure of feasting my eyes over ( and I have feasted them over many other informative posts)Than

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Quite a few people talking about the possibility of severe storms tomorrow in places, more especially the South, such as the post above by skull terrible rand Metdesk. Awaiting or Estofex, though it's a sat night and Sunday forecasts are usually slow.

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Hi, can someone help me, I have looked at numerous radars and satellite pics but I cant see it (Bertha that is) We have had heavy steady rain here since about 16 00 but that is now starting to clear away. I can see a huge batch of cloud out over Ireland but that is heading over into Wales and the North. Is that Bertha? The only thing I can think off is that you  are expecting it to start wrapping around anti clockwise hence bringing in strong winds? The low up over Scotland looked better than this one does or am i looking in the wrong place? Any info would be great.

 

Kaz

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Hi, can someone help me, I have looked at numerous radars and satellite pics but I cant see it (Bertha that is) We have had heavy steady rain here since about 16 00 but that is now starting to clear away. I can see a huge batch of cloud out over Ireland but that is heading over into Wales and the North. Is that Bertha? The only thing I can think off is that you  are expecting it to start wrapping around anti clockwise hence bringing in strong winds? The low up over Scotland looked better than this one does or am i looking in the wrong place? Any info would be great.

 

Kaz

 

Hi

 

I f you look on the 1800x fax chart you will see Bertha 998mb down to the south west of Cornwall so at the moment it is steaming NE to be much nearer Cornwall by midnight so it's still a fair way from you. It will probably be pretty close to Barnstable by 06z so your winds should pick up from the SE and  the rain set in between 00 and 06.

 

Nothing special really.

post-12275-0-42235800-1407622870_thumb.g

Edited by knocker
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Personally I feel this is being over hyped. For a majority this will be nothing more than a spell of heavy rain and a strong breeze. Obviously some locations may see more in the way of severe weather but these will be the exceptions.

I'm inclined to believe that the above is almost always the case in the UK - i.e a few locations will something worth remembering, but most places will not. Most places saw little in the way of thunderstorms yesterday, but the places that did rather copped it - as is evident by the flooding in Yorkshire and Cambridgeshire.

 

You're a respected member though, so when you have time, perhaps you would like to entertain us with your thoughts on why you think the above will be the case tomorrow?

Edited by cheese
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I'm inclined to believe that the above is almost always the case in the UK - i.e a few locations will something worth remembering, but most places will not. Most places saw little in the way of thunderstorms yesterday, but the places that did rather copped it - as is evident by the flooding in Yorkshire and Cambridgeshire.

 

You're a respected member though, so when you have time, perhaps you would like to entertain us with your thoughts on why you think the above will be the case tomorrow?

Over hyped by who? The bbc , met office ,the daily express or some very junior members on here? 

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Met Office have updated their warning to include all of mainland Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland.

 

post-21143-0-75433700-1407625110_thumb.j

 

Edit: The warning also mentions a secondary low or disturbance developing, any thoughts??

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Met Office have updated their warning to include all of mainland Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gif2014-8-10.jpg

 

Edit: The warning also mentions a secondary low or disturbance developing, any thoughts??

 

The Euro 4 model has 2 LP centres for tomorrow.

 

 

A real head scratcher for forecasters now.

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The Euro 4 model has 2 LP centres for tomorrow.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif14081018_0912.gif

 

A real head scratcher for forecasters now.

 

Spin off dual low was a them from triple points last year

 

It's a beauty

 

HD http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

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Am I right in thinking that until the low deepens the warmth of the airmass will keep the moisture from condensing into the clouds/rain that it carries with it?

 

A.T.M. we see  a lot of cloud from the 'visitor' but not n awful lot from the developing low that was Bertha?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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I have been trying to work out if there is some sort of dual-track on this storm or is that technically called a convergence .. Running through radar slides for the last hour, I see that the majority of the rain over the South West coast is working its way NNE ~ However, any rain that is over Devon/Somerset seems to have rapid intensification moving Northwards!

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Im no expert in these things, but I am thinking the main concern will be the rainfall totals over a wide area, and the possibility of severe thunderstorms after the initial warm front passes through, as it will leave a large amount of moisture and energy in the atmosphere which will be convective in nature, that will then be undercut by the cold front causing further large rainfall amounts.

Im not sure if 'Bertha' will deepen much further as it will shortly be over land and losing energy.

Feel free to correct me if im wrong :)

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Secondary lows can pack quite a punch, can be some tight isobars. This is very unpredictable unlike previous LP systems, we sure got a few over the winter. Hope history does not repeat this time.

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I'm out and about after a period of rain. It is very calm and humid, not sure how much more rain we'll get here but the radar is looking a bit sparse. Party in full swing!

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