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Skullzrulerz

Possible storm 'Bertha'

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Reports on Twitter of very heavy rain and strong winds in Cornwall now.

Hi, can report still no rain or strong wind in Hayle, clouded over soon after posting this morning.Had light showers on and off, just checked radar and seem to be in that dry arc on the south east of the image. 7:04 pm - hardly any wind now and very light showers (calm before the storm) ???

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I said the exact same thing in my regional thread the other day and got a rather hostile response saying that no we do not get remnants of hurricanes and that I should educate myself more on te workings of our weather!!Would jist like to thank you fo validating my correctness :) lol

I got it off a Simon Keeling video forecast today :)

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I got it off a Simon Keeling video forecast today :)

 

Living in northern Scotland, it seems there were frequently remnants of tropical cyclones mixed in with late summer/early autumn storms. What is unusual with Bertha is that it is early in the season for a long track CV system and impacting the UK well south of what climatology would indicate.

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I said the exact same thing in my regional thread the other day and got a rather hostile response saying that no we do not get remnants of hurricanes and that I should educate myself more on te workings of our weather!!Would jist like to thank you fo validating my correctness :) lol

Mmm I wonder who that uneducated person was.

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 Be interesting to see if the ECM edges further north, it and Hirlam have been languishing further south with track so far.

 

12z ECM deterministic for 12z Sun has the low centre further north than 00z deter, Midlands rather than C S England ... 12z Hirlam similar in posiition now further north, I guess we can assume now the likely track will be entering SW England NE up through the Midlands and out along east coast of England, turning in a more northerly direction over the N Sea on Monday and slowing off NE Scotland, with the fronts giving NE Scotland a good soaking.

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Can you give some examples of this please TonyH because I think these are fairly few and far between. ?  Off to do some research on that now, but I doubt there have been more than 4 or 5 in the last 30 years, so hardly regular.

 

It's a genuine question and if you can point me in the right direction for the research I would appreciate it.

Simon Keeling video:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

3:10

 

Heavy rain started.

Edited by TonyH

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I just had a bike ride for 3 laps and I saw dark storm clouds looming in the distance in the west of me. The sunny skies are disappearing too.

Edited by pip22

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Hi total cloud cover here{has been since about 1pm} Light winds so far,no rain as yet. Moved van from under tree just in case! 

Location - Newbury Berkshire

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Here goes! first time using this forum and I must admit to not really knowing all the technical terms for weather so you will have to excuse me when I use very basic common terms to describe things  :)

I live on the border of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire and have for the past hour been watching some very black and heavy clouds roll in, have had a few heavy sharp showers but lasting no more then a minute or two. Just looking at how angry the skies are at the minute and you can tell it is just waiting to unleash its fury. Is the the front to Ex Bertha ?

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Local bats are in a feeding frenzy, few more dogs barking in the foreground? can almost sense something is a coming and boy our counterparts are probably tuned in more than us re drops in pressure and all things nature. It's a coming folks...

Its funny you mention bats. I was in the garden about 45 minutes ago watching a few bats feed. Very early in the evening from usual. Thought to myself "do they know?" 

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Local bats are in a feeding frenzy, few more dogs barking in the foreground? can almost sense something is a coming and boy our counterparts are probably tuned in more than us re drops in pressure and all things nature. It's a coming folks...

Are the bats eating the dogs?

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Apperently there is a small disturbance before Bertha according to Phill Avery on Radio4 this evening. So the rain now is coutersy of Berthas visitor,!

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I've been in Angelsey and North Wales today, it's been a lovely day, but the wind was practically constant.

We always get remenants of hurricanes in late summer/Autumn, usually when the Atlantic is firing storms up the east coast of the USA, that's why historically our autumns are usually the stormiest - Atlantic hurricane season.

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Apperently there is a small disturbance before Bertha according to Phill Avery on Radio4 this evening. So the rain now is coutersy of Berthas visitor,!

 

child of bertha, dreading washout sunday, the NW midlands look to be worst hit, with the rain purely in the day, between 6am-6pm

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Wind showing on CHMET very light, F2 gusting F3, very unusual to have it this quiet and still on the coast. Calm before the storm definitely!

 

http://www.chimet.co.uk/%28S%28ou5nmnqhsif5ai55fktzpj2h%29%29/wind.aspx

 

A webcam in Bognor so you can see tomorrows weather here. I personally doubt we will get severe wind but expect lots of rain. Please!

 

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

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Here goes! first time using this forum and I must admit to not really knowing all the technical terms for weather so you will have to excuse me when I use very basic common terms to describe things  :)

I live on the border of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire and have for the past hour been watching some very black and heavy clouds roll in, have had a few heavy sharp showers but lasting no more then a minute or two. Just looking at how angry the skies are at the minute and you can tell it is just waiting to unleash its fury. Is the the front to Ex Bertha ?

 

Hi Steve and welcome to the forum. The rain across our region at the moment is not attributable to any of Bertha's fronts, these are all still out in the Atlantic. There are still low pressure centres the NE of Scotland and to the NW of the UK that could be creating the instability for these showers to develop. The first fronts from Bertha look to make landfall early hours of tomorrow morning.

 

Edit: Or maybe Bertha's visitor :D.... but this is still not Bertha.

Edited by Supacell

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Fascinating "cell like" downpour developed near Cardiff ~ I very rarely see that when there is general rain about. This could be quite interesting if there are any more developments like it!

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Well I'm back again

It has got busy with over 150 users looking on this topic.

This will be a long one but I have the link to it.

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2014/08/09/sunday-10th-august-red-warning-for-severe-thunderstorms-20-for-england-wales/

A combination of an extremely warm and moist airmass associated with the tropical remnants of ex-hurricane Bertha, rapidly and intense cooling aloft occurring during the rapid cyclogenesis of the storm, numerous complex vorticity eddies tied in the intense low pressure and a very strong jet-stream will all come together to bring a significant risk of severe or locally extreme weather conditions.

There is a few possibilities, one is a forced line of convection/squall type feature that will move readily East during the morning and early afternoon across England and Wales. Due to the tropical airmass very warm and moist air and the dynamic forcing of the cold front will be the focus for some especially intense thunderstorms. CAPE in the region of 750j/KG to 1000j/KG will be possible with very strong DLS in the order of 40/50kts and SRH in the order of 300-400m2/s2 – these values are augmented by a strong jet-streak tied into the left exit region of the jet. These very high values of wind-shear and helicity do appear to overlap with instability and combined with a very volatile environment several intense severe thunderstorm episodes are possible. Current thinking is that a squall line is possible but this is dependant on the phasing of the system, nevertheless convection seems incredibly likely given the overall dynamics and storms that do evolve during Berthas passage will become severe rapidly with the possibility of mesocyclones and the additional threat of one or two strong tornado events. It must be stressed that should a tornado evolve in this environment it could become long track. Perhaps the main threat with storms will be the wind gust potential helped along by an extremely vigorous 850mb flow and backed up by a strong 500mb upper flow and on current tracking some particularly severe wind gusts are possible along the South Coast and across South West England, The Midlands, Dorset, Somerset, and parts of South Wales. There is the potential of damaging wind gusts of 50-60mph or even upwards of 70mph in the most severe convection.

A Severe 20% was issued for areas of highest instability and wind-shear, but all parts of England and Wales should be alert to the risk of severe convection that has high potential to bring disruption and dangerous conditions.

* Further note should be made that the environment within Bertha will be extremely unstable and there is the very real threat of supercell development and the obvious severe threats these bring. Main threats are large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and tornadoes. A tornado watch with potential for a warning has been put in place with the added risk of an isolated long track strong tornado. This is the most extreme case of severe convection we have seen this year and as this is all developing within a tropical airmass it is a situation that needs to be taken seriously. Make no mistake, Sunday Morning is going to be significant for some.

To give some insight into the potential severity of this event it could well be classified as a high-end level 2 Estofex or even a low-end level 3.

post-20849-0-30540900-1407618350_thumb.p

Edited by Skulltheruler

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Hi Steve and welcome to the forum. The rain across our region at the moment is not attributable to any of Bertha's fronts, these are all still out in the Atlantic. There are still low pressure centres the NE of Scotland and to the NW of the UK that could be creating the instability for these showers to develop. The first fronts from Bertha look to make landfall early hours of tomorrow morning.

 

Edit: Or maybe Bertha's visitor :D.... but this is still not Bertha.

Thanks for the welcome :) and thank you for clearing that one up, shows what little I know. What with the heavy prolonged Thunderstorm we had yesterday and now the expected weather tomorrow it has been a good few days for me as an avid weather watcher. 

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Thanks for the welcome :) and thank you for clearing that one up, shows what little I know. What with the heavy prolonged Thunderstorm we had yesterday and now the expected weather tomorrow it has been a good few days for me as an avid weather watcher.

Welcome Steve, another local here :)

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